Joe Bloggs
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Great summary Lomond!
Hope that Edinburgh dumping comes off.
The city nearly always does well on an easterly. With a colder than normal Scandinavia and North Sea then this spell could be more severe than would otherwise be the case.
Fingers crossed for Eastern Scotland!
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00z ECM ensembles for London
http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html
Still look rather promising to me.
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I don't think anyone takes the UKMO at T144 seriously and so we await the ECM.
The problem we have is that the core of the HP is centred in the Atlantic and what the ECM showed this morning allows the northerly to occur because there is a sufficient gap between systems coming off the Eastern Seaboard to raise pressure enough over Greenland.
A northerly could occur, but either way, it looks like a precursor to a toppling and the mild February that now looks very likely.
I have never understood the obsession with the idea of the UM being unreliable at T+144.
The verification stats suggest that it is up there with GFS in terms of accuracy, if not more accurate.
I have seen plenty of occasions in the past when the UM has caught on to a trend more quickly than the other models, shown a different evolution at T+144, and been proved right.
Like you say though, ECM will be interesting. The UM T+144 chart could bring snow to many, the main question to ask, assuming the block makes it that far NW of course, is whether the block can hold for a while.
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There's actually some snow knocking on Edinburgh's door just now...!
+1C/-3C, I'd expect snow.
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We just had an outright bone-cold week and now we're back to marginality. Certainly so at the coast.
At least I can stop looking at the radar for a while now, I'm not remotely interested in whether we get any snizzle or sleet ... just doesn't do it for me at all I'm afraid !
Fair do's.
Enjoy your break from the radar.
If it starts snowing on Monday though I bet you'll take a peek...
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BT, SE England has been at 1/-3c for most of the day with heavy snow
Im not sure how much the surface cold comes into play in these situations?
N24 suggesting snow here Mon which is news to me?
NAE suggests we'll get some precip Joe, suggest rain at first glance
850-1000hPa 's look favourable for snow though
It all depends on the intensity of the North Sea modification.
Snow (certainly wet snow) isn't out of the question yet.
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Think its going only one way now for us east-coasties. Embra airport now up to 1c/DP -3c and reporting rain. NE wind blowing and seems set to take hold.
First time above freezing in 8 days there.
Edit: I'm not venturing out but tree branches are blowing about for the first time today. And the earlier snow from today that was on hedges is starting to glisten wet in the street lights (always a good indication that the air temperature has gone above freezing)
LOL it was bound to happen given I am coming back to uni tomorrow!
It's all about the dewpoint really.
I'd prefer 3C/-1C to 1/1C
850 - 1000 hPa thicknesses from the 18z NAE STILL look favourable for snow out to T+48 , it all depends whether the onshore breeze and North Sea modification are the overriding parameters.
You never know, we might be surprised.
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TBH I'm not 100% convinced that places like Edinburgh are without a snow risk in the next 48 hours.
If you look at the 850 - 1000 hPa thicknesses on the NAE model they quite comfortably allow for snow.
Monday need watching...
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That last shower did a good job at Leith level. Fresh coat of white gloss on everything.
Better enjoy it here, mushing/slushing here tomorrow methinks. Think most of Embra will hold onto most of it, expecting the Cramond-Silverknowes-Granton-Leith-Portobello coastal strip to take most of the immediate warming. The slacker the flow, the less the damage. Too much snow elsewhere in town to lose it that quickly, even flirting with forthcoming marginality. We held onto it in similar-ish circumstances a couple of weeks ago, so expect the same to happen this week.
Hi there..
I'm heading back to Edinburgh tomorrow (trains permitting), and judging by the latest charts I wouldn't be surprised to see some more snow tomorrow, not that marginal either, still some rather cold uppers. I would have thought pressure would be too high but just look at this morning! http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn061.png
Tuesday onwards it becomes much more marginal. Given how cold it is to the east though, at a guess, 850's -5C or below should do.
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re. the showers about to cross the Pennines, you'd be surprised how often the Pennines can actually enhance the showers, rather than weaken them!
Could be a light top up for East Manchester within the next hour.
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Depends what part of town you're in. Might lose some on the low-lying coastal parts of town around the weekend (maybe not). I think south and west though from central Edinburgh/Bruntsfield/Meadows area it all looks very secure - going to take a lot of warming to clear that and I don't see it coming.
If we get into a south-easterly, then traditionally thats not bad for us. Renders us effectively inland with East Lothian/Berwickshire, the Lammermuirs and the Cheviots ... providing shelter from too much maritime influence. So whilst the easterly down the estuary might briefly (ahem) "warm"/mush things up for a day or two at the weekend.... a subsequent south-easterly restores things nicely. Sometimes we even get light snow/graupal out of it (mm's rather than cm's). We'd lose the current night-time extremes but even then its hard to see anything other than a daily average around the 0c mark more or less ... maybe daytime highs at 2c or so (not seen that for about 5 days now...)
To be honest we've had a couple of freeze/thaw cycles even in Leith this past 2-3 weeks and still held on to visible surface frozen snow in gardens and parks throughout. Not expecting that to change any time soon, such is the embedded cold at ground level.
What a great reply, cheers.
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Morning all.
I'm heading back to Edinburgh on Sunday, and it looks as though there will be a southeasterly flow early next week.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif
Does anyone want to hazard a guess what sort of precipitation this would give? Will Edinburgh be losing any of its lovely snow?
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Anyone else suspicious of the readings at Woodford and Manchester Airport? It definitely hasn't been anywhere near -15C in my location and I'm only about 10 miles away, if that. I'm dubious about the very sudden drop at Manchester Airport and then the sudden dramatic rise. I can't remember witnessing anything like it before.
If you're in the conurbation of Manchester, believe me, the conditions at Ringway can be very different.
It has little to no influence from the UHI effect and is itself a bit of a frost hollow.
I can easily believe it is -11C at Manchester Airport. You only have to look at the amount of snow we have, look at the fact we have no wind, and look at our current airmass.
All the ingredients are there.
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-4.9c
Like i said, they are probably covered in snow - There is no way it is even close to -11c in Manchester. It can't just go from -9c to -11c in 30 mins (xc weather updates)
I'm sorry - But they are false readings.
Why sound so sure when you are not?
We have the deepest snow cover since 1981. There is no wind. We have cold air aloft.
Believe me, it could easily be -11C in Manchester. I've just got back from the pub and I nearly turned into an icicle.
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Yeah, plenty of sleet showing on the radar....
Manc airport is *still* -1C/-1C , Old Trafford -0.1C/-1.1C
If we are going to have issues it will be over the next couple of hours, but still absolutely fine at the moment in terms of dewpoints.
It's going to be a mental Manc rush hour in a few hours if this keeps up.
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Some of us are getting buried here, not sure we are going to see much later though
Still coming down thick and fast here, must be getting on for 10cm now and I'm in Heaton Moor just down the road from you.
I think getting precipitation later on won't be an issue, still plenty upwind. The only issue is whether it'll all stay as snow.
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im sooo peeved off ive had NOTHING for about 5 hours.
hope it comes good soon am knackered but wont sleep lol
I can't believe Ashton isn't getting it! You are literally just down the road from me.
Stopped now though.
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This is turning into an epic snowfall here!
Still absolutely pouring with snow here just to the north of Stockport.
God knows how deep it is now...
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Heavy snow here again.
Getting a bit ridculous.
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Very good looking streamer been spreading in, how much snow have you guys got up there, I know obviously with these events not everywhere will have done so well but I'm guessing somewhere has copped a good 3-4 inches given how long its been going on for...
Gotta love lake effect snowfalls!
3 inches at least here just 4 miles from Manchester city centre.
Not a bad effort by any means!
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And it just keeps getting heavier and heavier here in Stockport!!!........back of the net!
More to come your way! Still really heavy snow just to your north in the Heatons.
Well chuffed. (for now)
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I was going to go to bed but I just can't...
Snowing very heavily *again*
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lol stop saying north manchester,north manc has been poor tonight.
Looks a bit better now though for an hour or so.
But it's where the showers have been gaining intensity!
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www.raintoday.co.uk
Just look at the latest radar!!!
North Manchester snow machine anyone? Manchester is surrounded by the stuff.
Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 22:
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Can I just say I absolutely love reading your analyses.
Fingers crossed for Edinburgh next week... looking good tonight after a high pressure blip earlier at 00z. Hopefully ECM will look better too.