egret
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Posts posted by egret
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I live nearby to you and I'm baffled why you thought last winter was interesting at least locally.
Rainfall totals around here were not outstanding not like down south, infact they were much closer to average than record breaking and the gales we had and there weren't that many were nothing compare to some of the great gales we've had in the past, if you thought the gales last year were amazing, you should have seen those of late January and February 1990. Now that was an amazing spell of weather.
I remember both from down here. At Portland both were severe, 1990 waves seemed to do more damage to property above the sea walls but last year seemed to do more damage to beach / seaward rocks. Interesting how wave shape and direction can make those differences. Some of the Dorset beaches have yet to recover their profile.
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Welcome back, after some many months apart and only 30miles distance seems strange we have an internet Berlin wall for the summer period.
Glad we can again talk about what's happening in "the area".
Cold snap you say, a two day sneeze of some cooler air is more like it.
I agree,yes welcome back to the South Coast!
Through the summer I spent a lot of time 'watching our neighbours' in the SE as their weather reports were more relevant than those of Wales and Midlands but didn't like to post as it might have been seen as 'off topic' coming from a 'different region'.
I find thunderstorms along the South Coast particularly interesting as they stream over the Channel, and at this time of the year am always looking for that elusive Channel low in the hope it does the business.
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Not a bad day, mostly cloudy but some sunny spells at times. Temp peaked at 13.4°C
Here's a couple of vids I took while fishing at Durlston in Swanage. Although it was calm on Saturday, a swell stopped us from getting down to the rocks to fish, we had to retreat to the higher ledges.
Most disappointing - I thought this would have been a video showing 8 pounders being landed in the surf! Did you get anything?
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Hold on to your hats down in Cornwall - Meto Severe Weather Warning just lifted to amber.
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Think after reading met office 16-30 day outlook I will take a break from model watching. Looks like a westerly set up out to mid dec. think we will see a cold outbreak but perhaps in the new year. Just hope we don't see the awful flooding we had last year in the run upto xmas.
November2005Fan - welcome (and yours is a fair observation).
Terrier - I cannot help thinking back to 2010 when a number of model outputs kept hinting at a Northerly incursion well before the event, then all went quiet for a week or two before the jigsaw pieces suddenly fell into place, literally at 24 hr notice. RThe dramatic events had been forecast by the models, which swung away from the scenario before swinging back in at the last moment. This was being discussed on the forum at least 36 hours before the Meto spoke openly about the possibility. (and top marks to the posters who were commenting on this possibility in advance of Meto!)
For that reason I do watch and read carefully the posts of those whose trained eye picks out small details in the model outputs, trends, teleconnections, probablities etc.
Similarly Ian Ferguson it was i believe who commented last year (about a week before Xmas and I paraphrase) 'the coming period is likely to be remembered for the wrong reasons' - ie when others were calling a cold shot he was seeing unprecedented and possibly prolonged rain. Those words in my view deserve equal prominence in the history books to the much misquoted statement of Michael Fish in 1987. I seem to recall Ian Ferguson commenting helpfully in the run up to cold in 2010 also (was that in the regional thread?).
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Certainly agree with Ben C re convective activity this year - there was notably little thunder down here last year, although even this year we seem to have missed the strongest thundery plumes which usually stream up from the Cherbourg peninsular.
In one way I should like to see a repeat of last years rainfall pattern, but just to check what has been done to improve drainage on the somerset `levels and to see what effect it has had. Otherwise I feel quite sure that 'our aquifers have been sufficiently topped up now thank you'!
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Overcast but almost calm here, just the faintest stirrings in the trees.
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Last year had a variety of weather conditions and reasonable temperature range. A lot of snow, though none of the falls were impressive, and a very good summer. It was generally pleasant with persistently good weather from mid-April to late-September. This, combined with a record sunny November, helped make it the sunniest year since 2003.This year, by contrast, has been utterly vile like nothing ever recorded before. Snowless and frost free beyond the bounds of credulity with almost relentless wind from the SE quarter and on target to have the lowest average pressure in more than 150 years.The dullest year since 1998 and the gloomiest and murkiest I have ever experienced. One of the wettest too with persistent mild nights and low diurnal ranges. Damp even when not wet with a constant nagging wind. A revolting snowless wet winter followed by a dull foggy spring followed by a wet summer and now this disgusting abomination of an autumn that is even worse than 2006/2011.Only one month of 2014 better than it's 2013 equivalent and that was March. 2013 scores vastly superior for warmth, sunshine, snow, frost and general variety. 2014 has just been devoid of anything that could be considered desirable.
Which goes to show the split N&S Here on the S Coast our photovoltaic panels have had their best year so far - showing this summer to be significantly sunnier than last (even though last year we had a 5 week spell in July / early August with virtually no rain).
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Just noticed we are on page 63.
Yes page 63 is dedicated to lamp post watching - no not for snow but for Santas Sleigh towing a banner with the OPI results posted on it - for all to see!
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Just had severe weather alerts from Met Office covering every day of this week (sw - rain) I can imagine flood alerts following shortly. This is beginning to look a bit like autumn 2010 or 2013 depending upon which outcome you prefer!
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Plenty of flashes and bangs just to the south of here from the last lump of shower cloud.
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Just had a number of good flashes and bangs from a storm moving through Eastwards just to the south of Dorchester.
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If it's any consolation, my cat is shedding fur like nobody's business! The recent warm conditions have probably caused it, so I'd say there's nowt in it.
Mapantz, I am much relieved that your cat is shedding.
That means we are about to get prolonged severe cold and snowy weather. She is clearly preparing to stay indoors by the fire 24/7 for at least 18 weeks. Only the huskies will be venturing outside to bring back slabs of seal meat from the frozen shores of Arne, quite a trek from Barnsley I know, but worth it when the N Sea ports are closed to shipping because of dangerous pack-ice. LoL
On a nature related line - hedgerow nuts and berries have been prodigious this year - clearly the result of appropriate spring and summer conditions but can those conditions pattern match to a harder winter and therefore support folklore? Perhaps this is natures equation to align with man's OPI study.
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Temperature plummeting already under the clear sky, amazing contrast since the weekend. It feels like we have moved straight from summer to winter!
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I am amazed that there 'seems?' To be far less response to Steves post,than I would've expected.
It could be the mods are deleting many one liners with little dancing figures...or perhaps its just too early in the season for seasoned Coldie types, to be tempted with Potential nirvana.
I for one am thrilled to bits to have had such a promising start to the season,and by that I mean activity within the forum and interest piqued so soon.
It is a waiting game, but its brilliant to not still be waiting for anything of interest by mid Feb!
Good luck everyone,and may your snow dreams be realised !
It is bound to snow in EAnglia over Xmas this year - because we are booked in to a site with the campervan to enable a family gathering in Suffolk! We can take cold but the camper is not great driving in snow. I am thinking of taking out a bet at the bookies so that something good will come if we do get snowed off LoL
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Morning Picog, Yes as soon as the weather gets "interesting" the threads will be split again.
Goodo, absolutely nothing personal but I have felt throughout this period that there is too great a difference between weather conditions in N and S of the 'new region' to make this grouping relevant. OK, on many days it can be very quiet in the S or SW but that is only because there is nothing noteworthy to report. A UK-wide 'compare the weather' thread might be more suitable for those trying to get a real time overview of what is happening where and to monitor squall lines / thunderstorms tracking across the UK.
For the future I wonder if SW would group better with Southern UK for summer months as we share an interest in activity streaming N off the continent and coastal effects (sea fog etc). It is probably in winter that SW might share interest with Wales / Midlands as we watch to see how far snow tracks N or S to see if it might reach 'us'.
I appreciate that my comments might be a bit NIMBY as with my location I spend quite a bit of time looking in the South thread anyway - as also monitoring weather forecasts for the S / SE.
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A low of 15°C this morning, remarkable!
Currently 15.3°C and absolutely piddling down. 8.9mm so far.
Yes but we did well yesterday - I had expected it to be overcast in the morning - so i got that one wrong! This is the real of being the first landfall of moist southerlies, but also why I am a bit hopeful for later this winter.
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I think the important thing to remember is that the OPI is just one tool which can be used to try to get an impression of the coming winter. It's new, experimental, still not fully understood or tested and therefore shouldn't be used in isolated but instead as part of a broader outlook with things like this new IZE index we are hearing about, the SAI, SEI, seasonal computer models, ENSO, QBO, solar activity etc....
It wouldn't be as much fun if we knew exactly what was going to happen anyway would it?
And if we knew 6 months in advance with accuracy we would start looking forwards 18 months and be guilty of ramping or writing off the following winter. Such is human nature!
The great thing with the digital age is being able to explore vast amounts of data and to openly consider the ideas and work of others as they explore emerging trends and associated hypotheses.
For me the solar cycle patterns remain compelling and the OPI appears to paint a similar pattern albeit over a shorter set of records.
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Yes, still looking for a couple of pixels down in the Pyrenees and perhaps the mountain top on Corsica, but that is unlikely while we still have southerlies running up from Spain.
In any event it is very early days to be looking for southward extension which just shows how advanced the snow cover is this year over northern Europe.
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Hmm a lot of yellow snow on this chart. Would that be where the polar bears are hanging out? LoL
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Hi Peborant - I guess you also belong in the Midlands and SW Regional group so welcome for there too!!!
Always good to compare our experiences with those on the continent.
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Hmm, trending a bit towards less cold and wetter than previous prediction, but still in line with what I would have expected from the current point on the solar cycle (from a rather weak solar maximum) - other forecasts (NAO , OPI trends etc ) seemingly suggesting an overall colder outlook - but yes with interruptions rather than cold throughout winter.
IMO the indications still look set for a 'normal proper' winter rather than an really cold and snowy one. Ie cold incursions. I am still quietly hoping however that the warm N Atlantic and very warm E Channel could result in at least decent snowfall IMBY from a channel low.
I just wish I could of held off model watching for another two months - it does get compulsive!! (and the memory of model output events of November /early December 2008 do not help me to wait until after Christmas)
Jamstec October update is in and its still going for below normal temperatures for winter, Septembers update is on the right to compare the 2 updates and it shows some big changes over mainland Europe with many now going slightly above normal whilst the UK remains below normal
Precipitation amounts are shown to be slightly above normal, Septembers update is on the right to show the changes
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The Davis Vantage Vue updates rainfall every 20 seconds, so if X amount of tips have occurred in that time, it will calculate the rainfall rate for that specific moment, it's not taking an average over an hour. So if the intensity of the rain that William was experiencing when it registered 245mm/hr- kept up for 60 minutes, he would have indeed, recorded a total of 245mm. Hope that makes sense?
Mapantz, Ah I understand now - in one 20 second period it will have recorded 1.36mm. I was thinking a 3min sample interval. For the other part of the 3 mins it will have averaged 0.23mm per sample (1/6 of the peak rate).
Even for 20 seconds the 245mm figure is truly impressive.
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It was. 3.2 mm of rain fell between 16/10/2014 20:05 and 16/10/2014 20:10.
Yeah, I haven't seen anything heavier in my life, unfortunately it was dark but had some flood lights on and it was just like white sheets going past the windows!
William
That gives 36mm/hr - close to what we had in Sidmouth. I think you might have got the decimal point wrong in your earlier post?
Looking at the rain radar trace for your area yesterday it was clearly a beauty - elongated intense rain along the line of the storms path so it must have lingered a while. I see Exeter got hit badly as well.
Winter 2014-15 thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
good to hear from you Harve - nice to hear from our continental friends - especially when they bring news of snow!!