egret
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Posts posted by egret
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We had a sleety squall shower in Dorchester at 12:30
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1 hour ago, knocker said:
I think a little quiet reflection is sometimes required away from the intermittent frenzy of the other thread
Sunday and Monday will see a respite from the stormy conditions for most of us, with a good deal of dry, mild weather and some sunshine around. Rain is expected in south-west England and south Wales on Monday afternoon and north Wales and north-west England in the evening, however amounts of rain will be much lower than on Boxing Day.
Andy Page, Met Office Chief Meteorologist, said: "We expect stormy conditions to return midweek, and have already issued National Severe Weather Warnings for gales on Tuesday and heavy rain on Wednesday, as an explosively deepening area of low pressure passes to the northwest of the UK
"Everyone should be aware of the potential for disruption in places from further flooding and the impacts of the gales to transport, especially in areas such as south-west Scotland where Amber 'be prepared' warnings are in place.
"The weather is particularly unsettled at the moment and we advise everyone to stay up to date with the latest Met Office forecasts and warnings and find out what to do in severe weather so they can plan ahead for the expected weather before it arrives."
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2015/stormy-end-to-december
Yes you know its getting bad when we have to take sanctuary in here for a bit of peace and quiet!
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I suspect there will be some interesting discussions and negotiations going on under the Transfer Of Undertakings (TUPE) directives - the new operator effectively have to take on staff who worked primarily on the BBC contract and I imagine there will be considerable pension issues to cover also. I can imagine accountants and lawyers working late nights on this contract change.
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.....HIC? too long in the Iso Bar?
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Yes, our photovoltaic panels last month only generated a tenth of their normal summer electricity output and about half of their normal winter output. Fortunately this is offset by a welcome lack of gas consumption on our heating!
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Yes a real joy walking the dogs this afternoon in warm sun and dappled woodland light onto fresh fallen leaves. Whatever the winter we will not feel cheated out of an autumn.
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Equally foul here - I'm sure we all have it! Thursday brought the first real flooding of our back lanes for quite a time - the best indicator that the topsoil is now saturated meaning excess run-off from the fields when it rains heavily. The chalk fed rivers are also beginning to rise after very low levels in October (which is a relief to see for nature lovers).
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Whilst looking for something else I came across this interesting passage from Climate: Past, Present and Future by Hubert Lamb
Hay (1967) found that strong westerlies and a deep centre of low monthly mean pressure near Iceland in October usually precede mild, westerly winters in Britain. Enhanced frequency of northerly weather, with the low pressure centred over the region between the Norwegian Sea and the Kara Sea, in October tends to be followed by cold or rather cold in England with continued excess of northerly wind components.
More can be found here:
Also, a strange but curious fact....in 1677 a law was passed that any Weather Seers shall be burned at the stake. It has been repealed so you're all safe, but not until 1959!!
Which is why the express keeps getting it wrong. Bring back an important piece of legislation! LoL
Regarding this winter I have no extreme expectations but watch 2016 onwards with interest as we head on towards solar minimum from (a point where a cyclical high has been lower lower than expected) 2018 remains the one to watch for me.
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this site gives a good visual animation of how the low has developed over Biscay / France today and a feel for how the circulation might evolve from here http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html
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Area of developing storms between Weymouth-Guernsey is growing with each 5 min radar screen, looks like it will run up across Dorset-Somerset-Bristol so potentially excellent viewing from my part of Wiltshire towards the West. However I expect it to grow further and expand, possibly producing a lot more lightning by midnight than the precipitation area might suggest too.
Lyn, Mullender, Andy Pepler, and others, get ready!
(I am prepared to be wrong ! )
Also looking forward to a day out at Kingston Lacy tomorrow.
just had a couple of rumbles to our sw and started raining here
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Picking up nicely for those West of me.
Yes, needle stuff as it is an incredibly narrow line of showers over the channel - we might just catch this one - about time really as Purbecks usually nab them from us!
I wonder if Meto may have over egged this one as I normally expect to see things brewing up over Brittany long before it hits our shores. It we do get a rash of activity it will be a very interesting scenario and one to keep a note of. As I write we have just had a couple of rumbles to our southwest and first spots of rain.
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i think those temps will be modified somewhat nearer verification - the GEM and to an extent the UKMO are not as cool. But no doubt there will be some chilly nights and likewise any proper warmth does seems to be eroded as it gets nearer.
Agreed, but its still bizarre - to think we might have been hoping for those charts in January!
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You've all just read from a professional meteorologist that the meto,with all their amazing technology,are really struggling beyond 2-3 days and yet people are STILL posting charts 7,8,9 days away saying "return to westerlies now set in stone"
Yes, and lets remind ourselves what was being shown / said a week or two back when there seemed little hope of cold before the month's end.
With sunspot activity at (then) current levels the outlook back in early autumn was not one favouing prolonged and severe cold, but did suggest a more 'normal' winter with cold spells and possibly snow.
The current models and associated charts continue to suggest this to me, and yes we can all continue to hope that one throw of the dice throws up a full house that we can all remember fondly.
The shift of PV towards Siberia looks far more familiar to me, what we now need is a stronger low down over the Med and better heights in Greenland or Skandi. This set up is not there just now but I would still not bet against it within the next four weeks. As others far more knowledgeable have said in the past - get the bits in the right place and watch the picture develop. And that is the process I love to watch
post-7292-0-45015100-1421484484.jpg (drawn from Strat Thread)
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Remember shallow features drifting south in the very slack flow with bitter surface temps is a recipe for snow.!!!
As expected the GFS ensembles are a mess, the control + 7 + 13 poor. The rest all go varying ways generally pointing towards cold & risk of snow....
If you find the bias page the GFS 12z has the biggest eastward bias of all the runs over the atlantic- keep that in mind.
PTB is probably one of the best
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=6&code=17&mode=0&carte=1
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Simply stunning chart, I don't recall one quite that impressive - well spotted. ( If only.......!)
Time to check where PV is really heading
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Happy New Year one and all
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take my word for it john - there is no technical SSW currently predicted. The reason for the lack of posts on that thread is
1) andrej is visiting his girlfriend
2) the ECM charts have backed off the evolution that would have led to a SSW
there may be something within two weeks but as far as the situation only two days ago where some wee musing as to whether a SSW as was imminent - it isn't now.
That doesn't preclude the upcoming warmings doing some damage to the trop zonal flow so don't give up hope.
IDO, I don't see any extended ens evidence yet that the vortex will be on the move from Canada in week 2.
this is where my thoughts re possible scandi height rises comes from. A move back east from Canada to Siberia of the vortex would indeed not allow that.
And finally, I'm no strat expert. very few are which is why we got suckered into the ECM solution from a couple of days ago. We don't have enough data info.(especially when andrej isn't around)
So Andre J is still going for a non technical warming even if ECM has backed away from a technical one. Or am I simply getting confused? LoL
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Cold lingered here a bit longer than I had expected - the ground was still hard frozen and frost covered in shaded areas yesterday afternoon. Now a balmy 4.5C and quite pleasant when the sun comes out.
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I do love it when we get these comments on what the man at Exeter really means. Good job he never comes on here to see some of the comments about his handywork.
Yes I suppose we do tend to hang on, and hence examine every word - mainly because the forecasts do not give sufficient detail or explanation to enable us to understand (from a simple reading of their words) just what they believe is going on and the probability of certain outcomes.
Some have criticised the wordiness of Tamara's posts in MoD, but I really appreciate the explanation she gives to support her summaries. I am left with a clearer understanding of 'the why behind the what'. For this reason I read other posts (such as those of JH and Feb Blizzard) which help point me to trends or details which I would certainly have overlooked otherwise.
I suppose in this regard we might well be guilty of misusing the Met Office's work - but for one very good reason, we wish to develop our understanding as a community of enthusiasts.
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Wonderful crisp and clear evening here and feeling very festive.
Just to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and hoping Santa has enough from PV to bring you all a snowy New Year!
I am heading up to Suffolk tomorrow, so feel able to post in here tonight!
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Just walked back from the crib service, little Jesus is neatly tucked up in bed so we can relax with a glass or two. Lovely clear eveing so Santa should get a clear run in and easy landing
Just time to wish everyone one here a very Merry Christmas and a huge Channel Low and Severn Streamer in the New Year!
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Much happier with both GFS and the P run. Finally height rises! These ideas look more logical and maybe we are closing in on some answers. GEFS will be interesting to see how many members go with this idea.
I remain anxious with the continuous stream of deep lows spawning off E Coast of America and tracking over Greenland. While that is the picture I cannot see sustained cold over W Europe.
That said the low we are currently looking at for the UK could do useful things if it can help to establish low pressure over the Med - lets hope it manages to track
that far south rather than stick over N Europe.
Watching the jetstream with interest to see what is likely.
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Warning on meto site for parts of Gloucestershire for snow/sleet tonight - and early in the season, lovely to see
Yes, I had a second take when I saw a 'snow and ice' severe weather alert email for the SW from the Met Office. Also one for the SE
Detail shows these are only for higher ground in Gloucestershire and Oxfordshire but still impressively far South.
Fingers crossed for those in with a chance!
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The stormiest seas in the world for that time period?
Mapantz: But not in the North Sea / english Channel
Dave, best advice is a nice fried breakfast and then go up on deck wrapped up warm so you get fresh air and really enjoy looking forwards at the waves. The motion is detected by your inner ear but if your eyes can see whats happening your body is less confused. try and treat the motion as fun and you've won half the battle!
The other sure fire way to prevent sea sickness is to sit under a tree, works every time.
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first snowfall of the season right now!
starts to accumulating already!good to hear from you also Knoxgar, how far were you from the S Germany snowfall earlier this autumn?
starts to accumulating already!
South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 4th July and Onwards...
in Regional
Posted
another very heavy spell of rain just started, this time with hail mixed in and a single clap of thunder. The local rivers are now just overtopping their banks so the aquifers must be well topped up.