Kentish Kiwi
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Posts posted by Kentish Kiwi
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Blimey, FI throws up the worst possible outcome for Glastonbury week, Low replacing a nice High just in time for the Festival.
God I hope that's not the actual outcome
Well if FI's never right that far out... Surely its a good things its showing low pressure?
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Liking the look of the ECM from +144 (nice for the west from around +120) onwards which shows a pleasant evolution of the progged mid-Atlantic ridge, moving just far east enough that we are not stuck under its southern arm with easterlies off the still cool north sea.
The GFS too is a nice run but it only really gets going for eastern areas outside of the reliable timeframe.
UKMO at +120 and +144 looks a little unpleasant for the SE with a keen NEerly. Although there were plenty of time during the winter where we saw similar set-up's only for the high to move slightly to the south and east with the real cold weather (in the form of the easterly/north easterly) being pushed into France, with us left with cold but calm condition more under the high pressure rather than its southern periphery and associated easterly winds. At this time of the year that would give us pleasant conditions, then again that was the winter and now that its the summer patterns do and have changed.
All in all really not a bad output, though as always the good weather is being 'pushed-back' somewhat, we are likely to catch up with it sooner or later. Certainly no train of Atlantic lows and westerlies, or any 'June Monsoon'.
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I know you don't like when i say this but ask Mr Data he'll tell you ground frost has been recorded on the summer solstice so ground frost certainly is possible in mid to late June under anticyclonic conditions and with cool air aloft it is very possible especially in inland rural areas away from urban heat.
And it certainly didnt feel chilly today i was sweating walking around, its very muggy today and overcast.
I never ruled out that frost hadn't been recorded around the June solstice and even later in the summer, although I would have thought that wouldn't have occurred in recent times? I guess I do sometimes underestimate how cold this country can get in the summer even with its very long days, its warmer in many places back in NZ at the moment than a third of the UK, and its nearing the winter solstice there (obviously a different climate but still remarkable given the time of year) such as Auckland which has a high of 17 and low of 14.
"And it certainly didnt feel chilly today" - that may well be for you, but for many in the North and East temperatures struggled to get above 12 degrees, with some hardly making it to double digits, surely that counts as chilly given its well into summer.
So is averageness in the winter with temps of 7C by day and 0C by night but many will moan on here including TEITS its not cold enough even this past winter many moaned it wasn't cold enough or snowy enough when it was one of the best winters in over 30 years, seems double standards to me to moan about averageness in winter but not in summer.
When I say comfortable I mean being out and about without the need for heavy clothing etc, more just t-shirt, shorts and maybe a light jumper. Again, its a completely personal opinion, but I don't find any temperature through the winter months comfortable.
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lol yes so by the sounds of your post you admit HP in winter can bring more varied conditions than HP in the summer, HP is more interesting in winter than summer as it can bring clear blue skies, freezing fog, cloud cover and of course snow if situated in the right place, in summer it doesnt really bring much variation, i guess though next week interesingly enough with cool air aloft and HP moving in well on runs apart from ECM 00Z inland parts are at risk of a ground frost with unusually cold nights for mid June.
Stephen Prudence will tell you too once the sun starts to goes down and if you are in the shade if we have a cool airmass aloft and cool dewpoints it will feel chilly after 7 pm, alot of people like it nice and warm until dusk not getting chilly when they are out in the garden in their deckchair.
Btw i like settled conditions just saying it can get boring if lasts too long in the summer, most people on here like heat and thunderstorms, well no chance at all of that looking at the latest runs i guess averageness and cool nights suits you which is fine.
What an antagonizing post. Averageness in the summer with cool night can be extremely pleasant and enjoyable for many of us who like to comfortably enjoy the outdoors in the short time period this country's climate allows. Of course there is a chance of heat, its the summer and the outlook from the latest runs ie the GFS 6z is one of high pressure predominance, something that is likely to bring with it heat given enough time to build and thereafter the chance of thunderstorms.
I don't think TEITS ever denied that HP is more varied in the winter, he just said that just because HP situations in summer aren't as varied, it doesn't mean they're 'boring'; even if it may be more 'interesting' I'd much rather HP in the summer than the winter anyway.
We don't need Stephen Prudence (no disrespect to him) to tell us that it can get chilly after 7pm under the right conditions in June, as it realistically can at any time of the year, I think we are perfectly capable of experiencing and knowing that for ourselves. I'm sure it felt chilly all day in a number of places today anyway.
Also, I very much doubt ground frost is likely at all, other than notorious of frost hollows in the north, although they may well get chilly. First of all, the airmass won't even be THAT cold anyway and by the time conditions settle down sufficiently to allow such frost to occur with winds light enough and skies clear of residual cloud, we will be getting very close to the longest day (with the associated shortest night), in addition to SW flow off a rapidly warming, already mild, ocean.
I assume when referring to frost you are looking at Monday night/Tuesday Morning at +141 on the GFS were it shows lows of -1 in the far North of England? Not only is that still notably far out and subject to change considerably in terms of details, not too mention the GFS' tendencies to significantly over(or under)-estimate night time lows at that range, but it is only 6 days out from the shortest night, which in the far north will be a very short time indeed. This coupled with a very long day and extensive sunshine under the necessary cloudless skies will lead to good warming of the ground, which will have little time to cool, further limiting ground frost potential. Needless to say, I will be very surprised if what the GFS is predicting comes off, but I guess, as ever, we will see and only know when the time comes.
Would be interesting to find out if there have been ground frosts recorded in the UK at around 5 days before or after the 21st of June recently (ie the last few years), would surely need some exceptional conditions for it to occur.
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Is there expected to be much of a drop from this coming cyclonic eastery to northely spell? It seems rain and cloud cover are likely to depress day time temperatures, although still rather mild/warm away from the east, but with the associated cloud cover and rather warm upper air (generally around +5hpa but +10hpa getting into Kent by around Thursday) night time temperatures could likely be above average, helping to keep the CET around the mid-high 14's by the end of the spell?
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Ignoring FI and its unlikely transformation to high pressure, the realist timeframe look very cool and very wet with temperatures in many parts in the daytime 4-8C below average.
If this unravels and gets momentum then despite the warm start to June it could well be as bad as last year maybe one of the coolest/wettest in the series.
Bit early I know but its a very real possibility.
Interesting that you believe high pressure asserting itself is unlikely. From the latest runs (I know they have been chopping and changing quite regularly of late) there seems to be broad, general agreement from the big three; ECM, UKMO and GFS, that high pressure to the west will begin to ridge eastwards by around +144 after the northerly incursion.
I know it is 'very much FI and likely to change somewhat' but there is strong similarity between the ECM and UKMO at that +144 timeframe (the ECM showing the nicest evolution and ironically the GFS 06z, having been so keen on high pressure domination in FI recently, showing the poorest outlook in early FI although still very similar in nature) and it would seem likely from that evolution the most likely would be Azores high continuing to ridge eastwards over the UK, much as we have seen happen over the last few weeks.
If this were to occur, the recent pattern of one week unsettled with northerly winds, next week settled and warm as the Azores high ridges over the UK, which will have re-occurred repeatedly for almost a month, would surely be something to take note of. Maybe more of a traditional UK summer pattern...?
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I think that lot over Redhill is heading this way. I can just see the leading edge from here, does anyone think it will produce anything?
Underneath it now. So far just moderate to heavy rain?
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Reasonable cell beginning to develop in the wake of the initial cell to my south, just to the west of Tonbridge and moving due east.
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Yep not surprising to see it missed that cell because it is rather alone in terms of where it is, but as VP has said there was some instablity down there in the London/N.Kent region.
Weak convection over my location now on the very northern edge of the cell that is heading towards Tunbridge but its nothing compared to the core of the cell cluster.
*Tonbridge
A reasonable clear slot developing to my West giving me a decent view of the cloud tops similar to those over the South Downs as shown previously in this thread. Sky still dark to my east, seems to be picking up in electrical activity as it continues ENE?
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Just had a moderate heavy shower here in West Kent (around 2.30-3.00), with a few decent rumbles of thunder during it, but it seems the main core of the cell has passed to the south of me. Would have thought areas slightly to the south of Maidstone would be in for a good hit from it as it continues to develop. Has been pretty much overcast but bright all day here so difficult to see any cloud formation and definition.
(3.15) Just saw my first flash even with the light sky, with a decent prolonged rumble from somewhere overhead, skies brightening and clearing to the west now.
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Yep that makes sense given the strong set of cells that are moving eastwards through S.London and Kent, looking quite lively which isn't all that surprising given there is decent instablity aloft as you say VP.
Indeed, just had a moderate heavy shower here in West Kent, with a few decent rumbles of thunder during it, but it seems the main core of the cell has passed to the south of me. Would have thought areas slightly to the south of Maidstone would be in for a good hit from it as it continues to develop. Has been pretty much overcast but bright all day here so difficult to see any cloud formation and definition.
Another rumble with this light rain.
EDIT: Actually just saw my first flash even with the light sky, with a decent prolonged rumble from somewhere overhead, skies brightening and clearing to the west now.
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Lovely cell stretching currently stretching itself over West Kentish area currently, good electrical activity underneath it.
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Regular CC lightning and thunderstorm with heavy, pulsy convective rain here in West Kent.
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Everything is relative when comparing temperatures to other places in the world. Thresholds and all that.
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ECM is poor,gfs 06z is superb.Unfortunately i know where my money would be.
That said, I've seen the GFS repeatedly toying with the idea, over multiple runs throughout the last week, of a somewhat 'under-cutting' low situating itself to the south of the UK over Northern France, subsequently dragging up warm, moist air from the south-east. Could be a 'trend' being 'spotted' which the GFS has shown itself useful at throughout the winter.
However, I agree that the most likely outcome would be that of the ECM with a mid-Atlantic ridge, with such strong support from GP and his guidance from teleconnections. This isn't to say we'll be constantly under a northerly though; as shown by the GFS and to an extent the ECM on previous runs, a mid-Atlantic ridge could extend eastwards with the UK under settled, pleasant conditions as a result.
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The 0z on the GFS doesnt look too bad, warm, humid in the sunshine and the possibility of thunderyness in some parts. Other models have broadly similar outlooks
Appaling outlook from all models, with a humid and wet outlook along with high minima.
Into FI, and the GFS has a cooler and more showery outlook take over.
A textbook case of glass half full/half empty posting there, or maybe just personal interpretation of what the models are showing, although if would seem one is being rather more negative than warranted. No wonder people become confused about the outlook after reading this thread.
That said, it seems there is broad agreement over the outlook being above average at night time, humid and at least more unsettled/wetter than of late.
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London is a sizeable metropolis and therefore the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect creates warmer temperatures. Plus the fact London is the close to the continent and therefore enjoys a bit more of a continental climate unlike most of the UK and all of Ireland which is more of a maritime climate (not always the case though) - Ireland will often be warmer than London in winter, while the reverse is true in Summer.
Be grateful you don't have to endure stifling temperatures at night which London does - sometimes in summer, London and the SE don't drop below 19-21C, then add about 8-10C for the indoor temperature too.
It was a VERY warm and stunning 27C today, positively meditteranean feeling. Tomorrow has the potential for 28-29C before cooling off slightly Sunday and more so into the next week.
I really don't understand how he expects Northern Ireland to be as warm as London in the south-east of England, its just a bit of meteorological common sense that London and the SE (in addition to the majority of England) will nearly always get better weather in the summer than NI, just how much further North it is is a simple explaination. Its the way weather works, if getting decent, reliable summer weather is something you long for, I don't know why your living up there, personally I don't find the summers very good down here anyway, so I dread to think what they must be like where Frostyjoe lives...
High of 26C today and with sunny skies throughout, felt lovely, and this evening couldn't really be nicer temperature wise; still a nice warmth about it despite the lack of cloud cover. Quite a Mediterranean feeling, the perfect sort of evening to get out and enjoy a BBQ or the like, yesterday was far more chilly at this time with similarly clear skies.
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We'll believe when we see it i haven't seen rain for ages, we were ment to get rain all day today and its 23c here now with NO rain.
I'm not quite sure what forecast you were looking at. But the BBC/MetO one only had scattered showers and sunny spells, certainly no sign of 'rain all day', where did you get that impression from??
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what do you mean no 12z?... its there... and they dont make good viewing if its sun and warmth your after. the big three all have a general theme of high to our west and north, low to the south/near continent, winds from anywhere from north to east... theres still scope though for optimism, this has to be the best start to summer for some time, and the predicted synoptics arnt that far from producing something warm and sunny.
Its certainly not on the Netweather model viewer/reader, which is what the above posters were referring to.
Also, in my opinion, last year was a much better start to the summer, with May also having been particularly nice.
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remember that what Kevin is showing is for Manchester NOT the overall CET area. His figures, both summer and winter index's give a very indication of the overall weather I think but for Manchester so maybe a look at the CET data for those years may yield some information. Remember though the CET data is temperature only.
Hmmm, yeah, I find the idea of an index which takes into account more than just temperature a much more useful indicator for the weather for the year. Is there any other index similar to that of Manchester, but for a more central or wider area?
Last year I suppose is an example of why using just the Manchester figures can be misleading for the UK as a whole, because I'm sure if you were to have one for London for instance it would have given a much higher summer index due to the prominent SE/NW spit through the summer.
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Other than the early August heatwave i would veiw 2003 as above average, but nothing special, however August 2006 was actually 0.1C below average making it remarkable that most of the 247 points would have been ammased during the first half of summer.
Ah thanks, as I thought then.
For some reason, although I may just be recalling incorrectly, I've seem to remember quite a few posts about the summers in the 1980's being cool, unsettled and generally dreadful, in line with the cold winters experienced that decade. Yet looking at the above index it seems 1980's had three stand-out summers in 1983, 84 and 89 while 1990's and 2000's only had one and two respectively, although 1995 was especially notable. Was it the case that through the ten years of the 80's the summers were very poor aside from those three, compared to continuous warmth through the 90's and to an extent 2000's? Or am I just remembering things wrongly...
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The Manchester Summer Index for 2010 starts today and its not a great start with it raining and lack of sun. Last summer it was 194 and the winter index for 2009-10 was 197 First time since 1978 that the summer had an index value lower than the following winter.
Taken from the September 1986 edition of Weather and continued and updated by myself, here's the Summer Index rating for Manchester since 1901.
The Summer Index is 10 x [(mean max of summer) +(total sunshine)/67 - (rain days/ 8 ]
1901 249
1947 255
1955 277
1975 268
1976 301
1983 278
1984 271
1989 262
1995 298
2003 247
2006 246
Would it be fair to say then, if this index is a reasonably accurate representation of the summer as a whole across the UK, that 1976 was the best summer in the UK over the past century at least, with 1995 a close runner-up? And that 2003/2006 weren't as incredible in terms of the whole summer as some seem to make them out as, instead being more notable for intense, severe spells of summer heat over a less drawn out period of time, given they are the two lowest of the top 11 I've picked out, yet famous for record breaking heat-waves?
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May as well give this a go for the first time. Hopefully its not too late.
A warm, pleasant June at 15.5C please.
KK.
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Perhaps I speak for myself or maybe not but looking back I've made quite a few negative comments about the weather since March - mainly because the weather has been the wrong way around for me personally - settled weather in spring and then taking a turn in summer.
However, just a subtle difference in the nature of an Atlantic trough would make all the difference between a pleasurable and a disastrous month. A nice slack low pressure system feeding in thundery showers with sunny or brighter intervals would be far more summery than leaden skies, moderate or drizzly rain and unseasonal winds.
From what I can see the ECM looks rather nice in that regard, (more so than the GFS which seems more like the latter) with a slack low pressure feeding southerlies into the East, although the west would as always fair worst in such a situation. Out into FI and +240 also looks like a nice evolution, with a slack southerly flow, instability and relatively low pressure.
UKMO looks the best of the main three at +144 in my opinion, Atlantic beginning to make inroads into the West but high pressure still firmly in charge, with the low probably only helping to add moisture and warmth to the set-up at that stage. If such an evolution were to occur, it would seem likely that the east held onto the sunshine and warmth past even monday before a breakdown (if the low continued to track eastwards).
GFS definitely seems the most bullish about how quickly it brings in the low pressure and associated breakdown. From previous experience isn't this often the case? With the GFS over-estimating the extent and strength of lows and often, come the time in question, the low pressure has been pushed back and weakened?
Convective Discussion
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Guys... This is all getting really off topic and starting to clogg up this thread a little. Any chance you could move it to a more appropriate thread, something like general chat?