Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Hot?

Kentish Kiwi

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    432

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Kentish Kiwi

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Yes teits clearly the minnows following the gfs which is crucial

    UKMO becoming isolated now

    Which to be fair won't mean much if the ECM goes with the UKMO. Personally the only way I see things being cleared up tonight is if the ECM clearly and definitley backs either the GFS or UKMO, it will only confuse things further if it comes out with its own mid-way evolution (which looks somewhat unlikely). However, saying that even if the ECM does show that its clearly in agreement with one of the two, things really won't be clear until at least mid-morning tomorrow, as there would still be the big uncertainty with either the UKMO or the GFS + Minnows completely at odds with the others...

    To put it simply, and as many others have said several times, the only certainty at the current time is uncertainty - it really is on a knife edge :lol:

    KK

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentish Kiwi

    GFS FI probably wouldn't be that snowly actually, pressure is too high and the flow is too SEly. Very very cold though. But no point discussing that far out.

    :( Really? Looks to me as though its pretty much ranging from dead E to at its most northerly a NE, but mainly staying at a direction of around ENE - Have a look on the UK stream charts from around T+228 onwards (unless I'm completely misreading the charts). In fact I personally couldn't find a chart in FI that had a SE flow with the Easterly slowly developing into a northerly in the depths of FI. Certainly wouldn't be dry with such severe uppers and vigorous convection of the North-Sea. Wind direction looking particularly juicy for the SE and East-Anglia, definitely more Northerly tint than a Southerly, although mainly strongly E. :(

    But as you say, not much point in the details that far out, best to just look at the general trend as many are doing - and it seems to me that doesn't look mild :(

    KK

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Big flakes coming down now in centre of Tun Wells. 06z NAE has snow across SE and south central England to the south and west of London still at 6pm, but dying by midnight.

    Think combination of snow being wet and ground temp above freezing not allowing settling today.

    Oddly enough, I didn't see a single proper flake in either Tonbridge or Sevenoaks through the day. Just goes to show with such a localised event as this there can be relatively large distance over quite short distances, with various factors having influence.

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Maybe not

    Snowing here (light) but just feels mild (maybe 0c ?)

    Good snow cover but think , things on the change

    :) I love how this cold spell has left us thinking 0c is mild!

    U THINK THAT IN MY TOWN IN CERNUSCO S N ITALY HASNT SNOWING SINCE 2-3 WEEKS LAST TIME WAS IN THE LAST DECADE OF DECEMBER

    I'm confused am in SE England or SE Italy? :o

    :) :) Maybe thinks the SE is most relevant as its closest to him??

    Moderate snow continuing, nice size flakes too, hopefully will start to lay a little better as dewpoint decreases.

    According to my iPhone weather forecast I am experiencing heavy snow. According to the view from my window I am experiencing nothing. This scares me............ But equally intrigues me.

    The question is, who should you put your faith in? Your Window, or your iPhone? Personally I'd go with what the iPhone's saying and come to the conclusion that it is indeed snowing... :lol:

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentish Kiwi

    Now this is more like it:

    post-4523-12631280596942_thumb.gif

    post-4523-12631280823742_thumb.png

    Setting up nicely for a displacement SSW.

    Hi Chiono,

    Just wanted to pop in and give my thanks for the effort you (and a couple of others) put into this thread and monitoring the Stratospheric conditions, with it also quite refreshing to be able to read through such an organised, succinct and 'clutter free' thread (although I'm probably not helping things by adding this). Very interesting stuff and is in my opinion critical when looking ahead during the winter. Seems things are at least slightly more promising looking towards February than they were earlier in the month, showing just how quickly things can change.

    Just a quick question. From what I've gleaned, I believe that the various forms of warmings of the Stratosphere, disrupts and weakens the Polar Vortex in different ways, in relation to zonal winds and there slowing/reversal? I was just wondering what the difference between a SSW and MMW is (if any), what they actually stand for and which is more promising?

    Thanks,

    KK :lol: :lol:

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    redefining pessimism there mate :drunk: gotta agree a bit tho, 10th of January is statistically the coldest day [Probably, i cant actuaLLy remeber...] x

    Actually I think statistically the coldest time of year is Late Jaunuary/first few day of February, even if the days are getting slightly longer and the sun that bit stronger by that time.

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I think some of us work under different definitions of flurry, light snow, moderate snow, heavy snow, very heavy snow and blizzards! Oh and the classic 'white out!' biggrin.gif

    Haha, so true, I do notice that some people (not gunna name names :D) manage to get pretty regular 'BLIZZARDS' and 'WHITEOUTS' whenever there a snow event or even a few showers blow through of some kind even though others are just getting moderate-heavy snow. :clap:

    Maybe they just have there own severe micro-climates :D. Probably just more excitable than others and get caught up in the moment, they'd probably die with excitement if they experienced a 'true' blizzard!

    On that note, just experienced a period of actual heavy snow, that was really coming down, did see rather wet though, or at least more wet than snowfall of late. Died down no to just light snowfall at the moment, been experiencing similar conditions all day.

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Moderate/heavy shower now, can't say I'm that excited to be honest and it seems like rather wet snow, all a bit futile now. Sadly the lovely Icecles we had are now withdrawing quickly and it doesn't help that the little 'uns have been outside and ravaged the decent covering we had making it look rather miserable now.

    Coming down quite enthusiastically now, shouldn't really complain too much ay!

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Snowing moderately on and off in Tunbridge Wells. I'm on iPhone so can anyone let me know what radar blobs are around this way please?

    Hey Winterfreak, I'm just up to the north of you a bit and have experienced moderate/light snow on and off this morning, the odd thing is that there is really nothing discernable on any of the radars, a few very light pinky patches showing up but , but nothing that would illustrate some of the moderate falls we've been having, and it seems this is widespread. Can't think of a reason why it would happen but its probably related to the upper warm front.

    Not entirely correct. We had about 6 inches on each occassion here

    I think he was probably referring more to Kent in particular, which in general I would agree with. The 'streamers' over the last day or so that have set up have have had much more impact in central and Eastern Kent due to a NNE to NE wind, while the Thames streamer back in February had more effect in Western Areas of Kent and London, due to the ENE to E wind...

    Will this wind ever turn more Easterly? Everyone keeps on saying over the last few days that it is and to have patience, but I'm yet to see any evidence that it has/is making a definite attempt to do so, even though the models earlier in the week were predicting them to turn by around Thursday/Friday I thought? XC Weather currently showing a NNE wind over my area, have to say I'm getting quite sick of it, the easterly just keeps getting pushed back and back. Anyway lets hope Steve and Nick are right, and it does turn more Easterly soon, which will lower dewpoints and reduce the thaw, although if I'm honest I've given up in seeing anything snowfall wise other than a light dusting which will hardly be notable :lol::lol:

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentish Kiwi

    WHEN ARE THE THESE WINDS GOING TO TURN EASTERLY , IM SORRY BUT WATCHING THOSE SHOWERS HITTING KENT FOR 24 HOURS is slightly annoying.

    Is it really necessary to use all cap locks? Really is quite annoying and on many forums there is actually a ban against doing so... :drinks: Only succeeds in making you seem obnoxious and irritating.

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    People need to slow down and read the posts. Steve M has explained that our Snow in the SE is convective and this will be enhanced by the upper warm front currently poised across the channel. The parts currently predicited to have the heaviest snow are NW Kent, NE Surrey and NE Sussex.

    Is that in regards to the coming front moving North-West over the Channel from France. It was predicted to bring us light snow, and that's what it is bringing to those areas in France. However as we have seen today with this minor front developing into something bigger due to convection and instability, are we expecting this front to also pep up in intensity as it passes over the channel?

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    lol no , people have been saying that since 6pm yesterday..... the winds are still nne/ne ;)

    :) Is it ever going to turn!! I swear it was forecast to happen a few days ago, but keeps on changing slightly last minute and getting put back!?

    Uh oh... looked out the window and can see the gutter dripping and can hear water cascading off the roof into it... I think it's thawing :)

    I wouldn't worry too much, it may just be the warmth of your house due to central heating, which rises out through the roof, hence warming the lying snow. I've had it going on for the snow on my roof for a while now, it was even dripping rapidly last night at -5C so at least for me it isn't connected to the outside temperature. On the plus side the dripping water is freezing quickly and forming some awesome widespread icecles along the guttering :)

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Moderate-heavy snow started here with good sized flakes. Nothing to extreme like other reports, and its not laying as well as I might have expected so far, but hey at least its snowing! Was going to say there was no wind of note but just as I thought it a really big gust of wind blew through ripping snow of the roofs and trees etc, can certainly understand the reports of blizzard conditions, especially as were relatively sheltered here compared to the coasts!!:cc_confused:

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Kentish Kiwi

    So is this lot pushing NW the start of the main band from france or just some nice shower bands ahead of the main stuff?

    Its a trough ahead of the main band and it seems to be pretty active itself. You would expect the main band to be more intense and prolonged too, but guess we'll have to wait and see. It seems odd that many are expecting light snow, considering all the reports of moderate to heavy snow over Germany, Belgium, Holland and France from the band we are expecting, surely if anything it would pep up more with instability over the North Sea?

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    That's some high drifting.

    Whatever just blew through here was quite something, heavy snow, extreme gusts of wind, low visibility, like a minature blizzard! :unsure:

    If it had lasted for three hours+ it would have been an actual blizzard by definition, so pretty much actual blizzard conditions for a time, wind gusts need to be at 35mph+ with heavy blowing snow and lowered visibility which it seems you had. Must have been awesome!

×
×
  • Create New...