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shawty1984

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Posts posted by shawty1984

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

    Factually, actual facts, will show it’s better up there than down south for snow 

    Northern areas as a whole, obviously as a general rule its warmer the more south you go. We are talking about certain places though. So for instance, without looking at facts, I'd say Kent gets more snow than Teesside. 

    • Like 1

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    The South of Britain truly is pathetic as far as snow is concerned.

    I mean, it goes without saying that the further south you go the warmer its going to be, but it's such a wild statement it's pointless imo. I live in the North East of England and its pathetic where I live too. Its not just a southern thing.

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, steveinsussex said:

    But your ‘hardly ever’ to us would be loads! 
     

    trust me, snow down south is rare these days 

    Trust me, snow where I live is just as rare the vast majority of time. I'd say Kent gets more snow than Teesside. The annoying part is people see you live in the North East and just think you get loads of snow. 

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, tom_f123 said:

    Without a doubt one of the biggest busts in NW model viewing history 

    I don't know about the biggest but as I keep saying, it's the posters with the booms and bins and comparing to past notable winters like 2010 and 1947 every time a bit of cold is shown that is causing the problems. Those same people are the type that will berate the media when they hype of an epic snowstorm out of nowhere. 

    Imagine telling your friends/family that something comparable to 2010/1947 is on the cards, because some models show cold weather because you listened to people in the model thread and it got cold for a week with a few frosts and snow flurries in places, you'd be lailughed at and called an idiot come Saturday next week. 

    I don't have a clue how to read weather maps/models but I do believe a big shake up is needed for those of us who don't know what we are looking at. 

    • Like 2

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    8 hours ago, steveinsussex said:

    Oh please…. Jeez

     

    northerners hate the south getting even a flurry of snow; which is much less than northern counties get each year 

    No, what we hate is people thinking we get loads of snow, living in North East England, I hardly ever get snow in Teesside.

    • Like 1

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Paul said:

    We do try to move ott ramps into this very thread. But equally, what you're describing in many cases is weather enthusiasts getting a bit over enthusiastic for a weather type they love. What would you have us do, remove all the emotion, moderate every instance of someone getting somewhat excited? Where would we draw the line, how would we draw the line?

    I can't say I've seen much of that sort of thing happening on here in 20 years. The reason for that is that most people know and accept that the models chop and change, and if dates x days ahead are talked about, it's on the basis of what the models are showing at the time. If you've misunderstood that and taken it to mean a guarantee of some sort of weather type on a particular date, then it's unfortunate and I can understand the disappointment, but hopefully next time you'll have a better understanding of the dynamic nature of weather forecasting and the models.

    But once again, you're welcome to read what you like and draw the conclusions you wish to from those posts. All you're reading is thoughts on an open discussion about the model output from weather enthusiasts. Some have more knowledge than others, some get overly excited at the prospect of snow and cold, some may even post things which aren't an accurate representation of what the models they're describing are actually showing. But that's the nature of the beast, it's a discussion forum.

    Indeed, but as I mentioned above, everyone's posts need to be on topic and within the guidelines. Even these posts are outside of those, as this thread isn't for moaning about other members. You're of course welcome to post your feedback and any specific thoughts about the moderation of the model thread in the team contact forum, it's what it's there for.

    Yes, remove the bins and booms, it does nothing for anyone and is just misleading, especially on numerous occasions where the very next post goes against what has just been said. 

    It happens all the time, I might not post often but I've been reading for years. Again I'm not asking for an exact date, but I've seen numerous times where the original date given is just ignored when it has been pushed back like no one had even said anything. It's happened on this occasion when it was realised that the 7th of January was just UK high and the date moved to the 15 and it was always the 15th when the fun began. 

    I won't change your mind, but am I not allowed to speak out? It's not like I'm naming anyone, making it personal.

    • Like 1

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, Paul said:

    You're obviously very determined to make your point, so I guess I'll bite.

    Have a read back of what you're saying here. Basically, what you're moaning about is that some weather enthusiasts in a discussion forum, posting about the models, which chop and change daily, didn't provide you with a guarantee that what they were interested in/enthusiastic about/discussing 10 days ago would definitely happen on the day they said it may. 

    I'm sorry you've not seen snow, but seriously it's not the fault of the people in the model thread, or of the models, it's called the weather. It changes, and it's hard to forecast. If it wasn't, then there'd be no point discussing it. 

    Oh, and yes, of course, people are posting for the sake of it - they enjoy discussing the models, and some even get a bit carried away with it! But they're not offering a service, asking for payment for their posts, and they're not forcing anyone to read them. If you don't like all or some of the posts being made, you're welcome not to read them. There are ways to block posters, ignore threads, and curate your own list of members and topics you want to follow if you like. You're also free to view the models and post your thoughts on them as well. It's an open forum. All we ask is that people stay on topic and follow the community guidelines and as a moderation team we try to keep things flowing as smoothly as we can. It's not perfect, but none of us are, and therefore, the sum of our parts here probably shouldn't be expected to be either.

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    I had the post deleted twice, of course I want to air my views. 

    The problem you have is you take no action on those posters who are doing nothing but being unrealistic. It's been like this for years now. A boom here or a bin there and every time cold is sniffed at by the models, it gets compared to every notable event we've ever had. It's totally unrealistic and is unfair for those that are visiting but don't know how to read models. 

    I'm not bothered I've not seen snow, I'm bothered about how cold weather is portrayed on here. As stated, the goal posts are moved to suit the agenda. If they were just moved with a we got it slightly wrong, that's fine, but they are moved and denied that they got it wrong until people follow suit into believing that the second date given was always the correct date. 

    I'm not here to expect posters to say its going to snow on 12th February 2024. But it seems (things can still change) that January didn't turn out as was portrayed and that's partly fault of those that are booming, binning or comparing every evidence of cold to those past notable events. 

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

    Morning all,long time since I have seen so much uncertainty with ECM and weather forecasting in general,lots of egg on faces this morning with meteorological forecasting.Got to be very difficult with the polar vortex being hammered but with all the modern technology we have I think we should do better.Back to ECM GFS looks like a very cold week coming up,in regards to snow well that’s in the hand of the lap of the Gods.

    You can have all the modern technology you want, you are trying to predict the future, that's simply impossible on a scale you're asking for  

    • Like 1

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I'll hold my hands up, don't have a clue how to read a weather map, but the model thread is ridiculous. You can have booms, bins, 2010s/1947 comparisons and its just stupid. You get given a date of when something might happen and then all knowledge of that date is denied with a new date given to which they say it was always that date anyway.  There is some knowledgeable posters in there, but the vast majority are just posting for the sake of it. 

    In December, they were talking about how January was going to turn out. Living in the North East of England, I've not seen a flake of snow and hardly a frost in January yet and it won't be till the 14th till it gets colder, which while things can change, looks watered down to less than a week of cold and back milder again till they say February, that's not how January was painted to be by them.

    • Like 5

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

    So my non-technical take on what will happen. Based on nothing more than my direct experiences, plus reading this site.

    1) It will get much colder over the weekend. There will be much talk in the media of "stiff northerlys" and "arctic blasts"

    2) A few places in the north will get snow showers. But on the whole most places will remain dry. Some will grumble at this, but others will maintain that we should keep the faith.

    3) There will be much talk of a big midweek snow event. But ultimately it will trend southwards and miss the UK.

    4) There will be louder grumbles,  but others will say "at least it is still cold".

    5) A much bigger low will approach from the west. There will be talk of "battleground scenarios" and "midlands north event"

    6) The low will pile through. There will be snow on the leading edge that will produce dramatic pictures on the news. But overall it will soon become a rainy/slushy mess. It will mark the end of the cold spell and people will be sad.

    7) Others will say "Doesn't matter. Background signals are supporting an even better cold spell opportunity next month." There is much rejoicing and the chase is resumed" 

    8 ) compare to notable past events 

    9 ) cold is delayed, new date was always the time it was due

    10 ) cold gets downgraded

    11 ) end of February looks cold. 

     

    Let's face it, while this isn't over and things can change, this isn't what was been spoken about on here. Originally, regardless of what anyone says the original date was the 7th until people realised that it was just a UK high and moved the dates to the 15th. While I agree, it's been colder, it's 6/7 degrees in the north east of England, we were told on here that it would be cold at the surface. 

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1

    Far north and northeast of England weather discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Far Nth and NE of England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Originally it went from the 7th, that turned to a UK high which we were told it would still be cold at the surface, yet forecast temperatures are around 7 degrees (I know its been colder elsewhere). Then got told its from the 15th and now that 'seems' to be getting watered down the closer we get. 

    I'm not expecting too much from this cold spell unless things change. 

    It seems pointless reading weather models unless it's your job. It's just a hobby of leading you down the garden path. How many booms and bins are needed till people realise this.

    Far north and northeast of England weather discussion

    in Far Nth and NE of England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

    Dew points now dropping away nicely after the warm sector has passed through. Should be snow that falls apart from right on the coastline from now on

    Good covering in Guisborough 

    Still rain in Thornaby (again could be sleet) I'm sure we have our own climate here, they have a very slight dusting in Stewarts Park not to far down the road and literally nothing here.

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