[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

Got to love this place. Its Wednesday and we don't know what's happening on Monday, yet we have people now getting excited about charts from Friday and Saturday next week . I get it's the model thread, but do none of you learn? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

6 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

The comparison being made with now is due to a strikingly similar evolution, not the fact it's going to get cold.

Point is, they now happen every year. 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

6 minutes ago, Seasonal Trim said:

Agreed. There has been some major 2010 comparison ramps over the past few days. This is not going to be a major event as it stands. And nothing like 2010 other than maybe the direction it comes from.

The problem with 2010 comparisons is that they now happen every year when the models show a hint of cold. 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

19 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

You werent around in December 1981 were you?... and December 2010 was largely a northerly based flow...

To be pedantic, December 2010 was a more north easterly.

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

75-90 mph winds for many, there can’t be many storms in the past showing that inland .

I fully expect an Amber warning for most in the above 70mph bracket, I’m not sure what the METO would class as a red warning for wind - has that ever been done ??????

Storm Arwen, November.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

26 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

The Met Office long range suggests a cold start to January then much milder weather from mid-month. Along with their seasonal 3 month forecast, I would suggest they are not expecting much in the way of wintry weather this season sadly

I'll never understand this. Christmas day is on Saturday and we've only just found out what's happening on Wednesday/Thursday. Why do people even then look at something 3 weeks away. 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

3 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Think we can all agree that Scandinaviav is going to have a cold christmas and we will have a mild new year....of interest is the deep cold  gfs12z shows in first few days of January to the ene...quite a temp difference over relatively short distance....

What is it with some posters on here? It's Wednesday the 22nd and we can't accurately know what's happening on Saturday the 25th/Sunday 26th, yet somehow we all agree we are going to have a mild new year  

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

1 hour ago, steveinsussex said:

Lol

 

a very small corner of Kent 

 

I honestly think people who live up north have different ranges to us southerners. When we say rarely, we mean a dusting maybe once a year. For those up north rarely seems to mean 5 or 6 occasions with measurable snow a year! 

I can't believe this is even an argument. When I say I live in the North East of England and I rarely get any snow, I mean it. Not saying it for a laugh.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

3 minutes ago, EML Network said:

Lmfao you are kidding right. The NE always gets snow, especially on the NE coast

Maybe I should repeat that. I live in North East England and hardly get any snow. The North East Coast near me very rarely gets snow either.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

3 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Seems to me like a normal winter; snow in the usual places. Bugger all down south as standard

I wish people would stop with this South show that goes on. I live in North East England and hardly get any snow either.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

8 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Is there a bigger cop out than sectioning off a third of the country and inserting the phrase “chance of early rain/snow”? That is not a forecast. It’s not a job I’d like to do but it’s like everything else nowadays, cover all bases, no risk of embarrassment.

That phrase rain/snow……

What's wrong with it? If they don't know what's going to fall from the sky, then they don't know, it's pointless guessing to please random people on an Internet forum.

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

16 minutes ago, Durham Weather said:

I wasn’t agreeing with ‘bin it’. I was saying that the speed or cost of the computer isn’t the reason people are questioning the output. 

They didn't question it, they disregarded it and said bin it. 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

Just now, Durham Weather said:

The computers may be super expensive and fast, but they’re still dumb boxes that rely on software to make them useful.

Expensive software and expensive wages to input and decode them. The point still stands that saying something can be binned is ridiculous beyond belief. 

Let's try to remember what we are doing here, we are trying to predict something that hasn't happened yet, which makes it even more outlandish of saying it can be binned. 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Excuse me. I'm not just a random person on internet mate 85% of people in the peak rely on me for snow warnings.

You're a random person on the internet. I don't know who you are. 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Icon can be binned..

Companies and government pay millions for super computers and software to run these models and you have some random person on the internet saying bin it

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

7 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

UKMO is correct. 
 

GFS is poor and bows up lows. 
 

Nothing is correct till the day it's forecasting comes around. People should be ashamed of posting sometimes. 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

Bit of lying snow around Teesside area too.

[Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Is it just me or are people getting overly excited in the mod thread, posting pics of how many cm's the country will have? Some of the pics are basically showing snow over the hills and basically nothing for low land or just a cm, which will amount to nothing. 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

2 minutes ago, Chris. said:

Best bit of Snow I’ve seen since the start of the easterly.  If only every shower was like this.  Not graupel. Thick heavy snow 

And this picture says it all to me. Third day in.

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

Why do people keep mentioning streamers when we've had nothing close to one. I think it's time people woke up a little in here. People are circling small showers on the radar then are getting disappointed. 

I'm not saying there isn't potential, but some common sense would help. 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

2 minutes ago, mathematician said:

I suggest you don't worry too much about Kent. If it comes to snow on average we get 10 times what they get. This is an exception,not a rule 

 

And when it comes to everything else (people, food,scenery, cost of living) the north east as always wins 100 to 0. 

That depends where you are from. I'd say Kent gets more snow than where I live.

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

1 minute ago, doctor32 said:

The thing is, some places are seeing decent snow showers and frequent ones where they have aligned.

 

Obviously for some like yourself and to some extent myself, the showers just aren't falling right at the moment... Just one of those things unfortunately.

We've had showers all day, showers of graupel.

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

8 minutes ago, Gizzy said:

Well yeah but remember this time last night it wasn't happening anywhere anywhere so today is day 1 for me.

Lol it doesn't work like that let's face it, up to now it's been a major letdown for most people. At 4am we had a dandruff coating. At 6am, maybe a cm by a shower of real snow, that basically melted and it's been graupel all day again. At the moment, we have an dandruff coating of graupel. I said yesterday, for Teesside to get anything worthwhile, it needs to be something special like 2010 or 2018. As it stands, it's simply not happening yet no matter how many people mention how the radar looks. 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

2 minutes ago, Gizzy said:

Well said seabreeze, we are on day 1 for gods sake people, still tonight, tomorrow, tomorrow night, Wednesday, Wednesday night and potentially even a little about still on Thursday then it looks like we stay cold for the best part of the month with potentially more snow events which could pop up.

Yes it hasn't met expectations YET but come on team NE thread there is still time and if it doesn't happen then it's only weather.

Day two. 

[Far north and northeast of England weather discussion]

9 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

I’m back , I have witnessed every shower somehow only skim me for the past two hours. Luck has to change soon or even I am going to become negative 

How are you not negative anyway? It's Monday night and basically have a dandruff coating.