staplehurst
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Posts posted by staplehurst
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some light 'convective' rain here in Norwich about 7.30pm, been dry since but very humid, sticky and overcast with weak signs of mammatus. Am sure I heard a couple of faint rumbles during the light shower at 7.30.
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This looks increasingly like a Kent clipper to me
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if we remember last year (July was it?), an MCS was forecast to run up in to the SW in the early hours right up until about 6-9 hours before the event, and give'm a pasting - what actually happened was the MCS swerved totally NE, hitting the SE (about 150-200 miles East of the forecast area).
Monday 25th May (Bank Holiday), I remember it well.
Though the MCS provided very unexpected cloud forecast and severely hampered our chances for sever thunderstorms later in the day, which was the forecast the night before.Pat has a quote from me (old username) in his signature I think :lol:
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well.... im waiting in anticipation for a storm this weekend ! just moved down south from west midlands and hope to hear a few rumbles! for anyone living near chatham area, Is this a good spot for storms?
Chatham tends to benefit from storms moreso than other parts of Kent, particularly where I live (in the Weald of Kent). The UHI of London effect can create storms over London which then drift down the Thames Estuary, or equally during ENE shower trains the proximity of your location to the sea helps you receive the showers during their most intense stage.
However when it comes to storms moving from the south, it all depends on whether they survive when they reach our shores. Otherwise it's just the south and east coasts of Kent that see anything, whilst the rest of us usually get just plain old rain.
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Hmm, I know that this morning I think it was travelling up threw the IOW and C/S England but yeh it has seemed to be getting pushed more west as each run goes on.
I do agree that we need until tomorrow evening to get the better picture and even it will still be very hard to say on what could happen.
My fingers are crossed for a cracker:D
It's only being pushed west so that the usual eastward movement can commence tomorrow
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Looks like all models are stuck on the runs prior to the 12z - again.
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Numerous anvils seen lining up to the east of Norwich today, in Norwich itself we've had some pretty hefty downpours with hail mixed in, and a very sudden increase in wind on approach of each shower. Very gusty indeed, and some very fast moving low scud at times too. Very active day here.
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surely you've had your year's worth of storm fixes in the States?
quite a cluster of sferics in the North Sea currently, why do storms seem to last longer over a cold sea than land recently?
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In the end it was the UKMO model to step down and fall back in line with GFS - interesting...
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Latest GFS run has ever so slightly shunted some of the storm risk for tomorrow night slightly North in to the Channel, while later on Wednesday the occlusion swings up across the SE with some potential for heavy rain.
Appears to be a foci for some very high CAPE/LI values between Calais and Le Havre tomorrow afternoon - should it be realised (looks likely) could get some nice cloud scapes from the south coast (should the skies be quite clear)
See image below - how close do we need to be!!
poxy HP lolThere is still some disagreement between the UKMO High Res and the GFS, UKMO is keen to throw some potent cells in the channel and clip E Sussex/Kent tomorrow evening, GFS keeps all precip over France until Wednesday itself. Thing is UKMO and GFS are both being persistent in their positioning - one of them has to give eventually!
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I've been keeping an eye on the charts and there is going to be some very exciting stuff happening just across the Channel from us in the next 36-48 hours! Looking like there's going to be some really quite intense thunderstorms across N France tomorrow and Wednesday, with the LP triggering them TRYING to push towards us...I found this chart very interesting (if a little hopeful) but might be worth keeping an eye on...the pressure charts are all over the place so I am not quite sure what is going to happen....
I've been watching that for a few days now, and it looks like tomorrow night might see a slim risk of a few storms clipping Kent - shame I'm in Norfolk at the moment!
Does look like some big storms in France though.
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Very rapid convection here in Norwich, getting very dark now and generally overcast. Feels very muggy.
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Cumulus building slowly through the afternoon in Earlham Park, Norwich. Feeling hot in the sunshine but a nice moderate breeze cools things down.
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Quite a large cell just to the north of Scarborough going out into the North Sea, can anybody confirm any Sferics or hail associated with this? Does look rather impressive on the NW5 min radar.
sferics there on ATD now
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A little bit of an improvement for Norwich this evening on the past 2 GFS runs, will watch eagerly this afternoon
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Fingers crossed for Norwich on Sunday evening then
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O dear storms risk have moved south
Isn't that always the way? For the past several years that I have been observing GFS Storm charts, something will pop-up, will be persistent, but in the days running up to the event it will shift further southwards and eastwards away from the country - the same can be applied to snow at times too. Most frustrating.
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NAE Keen to 'dump' 40-60mm of rain in areas between the M4 and roughly the M6 - flooding certainly likely.
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This cold front has been delayed with every consecutive forecast. Any futher delays and the storms over north France may actually graze the far southeast of Kent tomorrow evening (shame I'm in Norwich!)
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Amazing anvils to my west, 3 in total, the most southerly one looks like a straight track to Norwich,
Some photos:
Cracking pictures, the anvils did look pretty impressive as they approached
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Had to get changed(!) after some, er, "over-exuberant storm spotting" which resulted in me getting caught in the resulting rainstorm.
Same! We were walking onto campus and it absolutely poured it down, we were all soaked. The base of the cloud was lit up in an eerie-orange glow from the setting sun.
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Amazing anvils to my west, 3 in total, the most southerly one looks like a straight track to Norwich,
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UKasf is still down
Yes I wondered that earlier, so I emailed them asking when they expect their site to be back online. This was their reply:
Dear Sir,
Thank-you for contacting UKASF. Unfortunately, due to the problems with the volcanic ash over the past week, several members of our design team were stranded in various places, and as a result the relaunch has been delayed. However, we will continue to issue storm forecasts, but they are currently only available by clicking on our widget. The forecasts are available to view online, but the new design has not been implemented onto our site yet. We are hoping to get the site back online over the next few days. We apologise for any inconvenience caused by this.
You can view the forecast issued for Sunday 25th April 2010
UKASF Team
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Fingers crossed for today then, last time I saw lightning/heard thunder was 24th July 2009 in Cranbrook, Kent. Hoping something might pass UEA later this afternoon in Norwich :lol:
Though the MCS provided very unexpected cloud forecast and severely hampered our chances for sever thunderstorms later in the day, which was the forecast the night before.
Convective Outlook
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Looks like it will pass to the south of us sadly. We ideally need something to sprout up in between the two of them.