Stevetynant

The more I read on the model output discussion the less inclined I am to believe we in the West are going to be invited to this particular party. Having said that - 3 days ago looked like February was going to disappear into a mild and drizzly mess so hope still burns bright.

The snowdrops are already out just outside Lampeter - banks of them - nature just doesn't know where the hell it is over the last decade or so - much like my good self when Wales give England a tonking on Saturday afternoon.

Looks like the general consensus on the output model thread is general optimism but given then model swings of the last few days we're still waiting for a little longer before anyone will be really certain - however I do get the impression that what precipitation there is likely to be will again be in the East and South East. Still a little early I guess and things looking more positive for cold- but snow in the west a bridge too far?

never had any doubt at all

as long as your not slacking then lol

This is starting to remind me of an old Star Trek episode where Kirk was hailed as a God by the simple natives - eventually when the truth dawned that Kirk was only human and could not summon the lightning on cue, said natives attempted to stone him to death - this is whats going to happen to me in work on Andy Music day when the ice storm fails to arrive. Andy - pack your bags, get down the Mumbles and do your stuff - the natives are getting restless :0)

"West based negative NAO becoming established - mild S/SW for us - block is diminishing to the East. Welcome to a mild & wet February. " Not looking good from the guys over on the model discussion thread - AndyMusic day looks like it could be postponed until next year :0(

Feb 8th is now being called Andy Music day in work - Keep the faith On a seperate note - Andy you must have had a -12 at your elevation this winter - I've had -11 down here a few times already. Was talking to the bacon roll guy on the Beacons on Saturday and he told me they had had -16 registered (I had a black cat but he had a panther if you know what I mean)

I'm voting for Andy - unless we can go straight to 30 degrees heat without passing 2 months of drizzle - lets have some more snow and ice

I read somewhere a long time ago that Britain is exactly the worst kind of land mass for accurate weather prediction being long, narrow and surrounded by water. Whilst I am thoroughly enjoying reading the thoughts of those of you who are well informed and educated on the subject I'm starting to come to the conclusion that nature is Chaotic by definition and forecasting anything more than about 3 days in advance is fraught with danger. I've got Wednesday and the 8th February pencilled in for a final blow out for this winter and as long as it doesn't affect the Wales / England game on Saturday it will be more than welcome in Penpedairheol. keep up the good work guys - I'll be tuning in later on in the week to see if the high pressure from the East makes its final push for the winter - anything prior to that is just getting my hopes up to be dashed again :0)

Ah I see- thanks Keith I'm starting to come to the conclusion that anything more than about 3 days in advance is educated guess work and supercomputers or not Nature is wholly uncooperative and refuses to conform to Met Office schedules.

UK Outlook for Friday 5 Feb 2010 to Sunday 14 Feb 2010: A spell of wet and windy weather affects the UK at the end of the first week of February with a chance of south or southeasterly winds reaching gale force in the north and west. Most places will have rain for a time with this most likely to be heaviest in the north and west. There is also a chance of sleet or snow in the northeast at first. It is likely to become drier by the end of the weekend although rain or showers continue in many places. Although there is still some uncertainty, the unsettled pattern of rain or showers, possibly of sleet or snow, is likely to continue throughout the second week of the month. Temperatures likely to start around normal becoming cold or rather cold later. This is on the Met Office website- they don't look so brave there ?

OK Thanks Andy - I can still keep the faith for a little longer then :0)

Have I musunderstood something here? I thought the early predictions were for some Siberion type weather heading our way around the end of the first week in February - the 8th possibly but this has lately been superceded by Mild weather with winter going out as a bit of a damp squib (well Feb at least)?

Hi JK - strangely enough was talking about you to two of my neighbours who live in Ty Nant - I mentioned your initials which was all I knew and they said they thought they remembered a John living here a long time ago ( you lived in Number 5 if I remember correctly - must have been a long time ago though as I have bee here well over 20 years). As for the snow bit disappointing this afternoon but will be even worse if we don't get any mid week after I've been telling everyone in work and home to dig in as we won't be seeing them until March when the Eastern front arrives :0)

12:53 - just starting a light flurry in the Rhymney Valley - c'mon snow do your thing could do with another day off tommorrow

Yup - we all lived to tell the tale - we spend a lot of time down there - it is a lovely place. One thing I would have loved to photo - just as we were returning at the foot of the Beacons the moon was rizing just over the horizon - I know now what you mean by a Martian moon Andy - huge and orange - it was lovely. Then coming down the A470 past Merthyr - the moon had rizen just behind Cafarddfa Castle - right behind it - I could have got a really nice shot - once in a lifetime for me at least but couldn't stop on the A470. Damn - never mind - what a great winter its been.

Out and about in Wales today - crossed the Brecon Beacons where at 12pm the temperature was minus 1 and on to Newquay in Cardigan - never getting above 4 degrees all day. Stupidly got off the main road between Lampeter and Synod Inn to take photos and ended up sliding 40 yds down a hill unable to stop - no damage to any one but learnt a lesson - any how - although we only had a light dusting where I was in the Rhymney Valley - looks like those further West had more to shout about - with more snow coming in over the sea while we were in Newquay - all photos taken today first couple in Brecon, third one just above Synod Inn and the last one on the beach in Newquay - you can see the Clouds full of something on the beach and the snow capped peaks of the Lleyn Peninsula in the background - hopefully more snow to come tommorow so can get out and about again.

Well 10am in the Rhymney Valley - and the road outside my house is white (in an icing sugar kind of way) although the fields look like they've had a heavy frost only. Didn't expect to get anything this far East. The weird thing is its still there - must be biting cold for it to still be there in the bright sunshine out there today.. Just off to Newquay in Ceredigion in the next few minutes - wonder how much has fallen down there?

Thanks Andy appreciate your time Juts to let you know you have become the local weather guru where I work as I post your thoughts fairly regularly in work - in fact I'd say you have become a local celebrity in Newport these past few weeks - when do you do signings ? :0)

Andy - could you clarify for those of us (me at least) who are not so experienced at these things what you are seeing here - to me this extreme low temperature zone is to the North West of Britain. If the current winds are North Westerly won't that push this front away from Wales? What are you seeing here that tells you this is pushing West?

Heading off to Newquay in Ceredigion first thing in the morning = got my camera - don't let me down guys

Listnened to Radio Wales on the way home today - they are already warning about the possibility of heavy snow with the Eatern Block of cold air sat over Wales - I thought he said from around the 5th or 6th Feb but I might be mistaken - did anyone else hear this today? sounds like what Andy was mentioning earlier on in the thread.

BBC Seem to be agreeing but forecasting little chance of precipitation (From the 8th Feb) "The temperature signal is for sub-zero daytime values and widespread night frosts.Precipitation of any sort seems unlikely." I know things can change very quickly but they seem pretty confident