moffatross

^ Yes indeed, I'm also not surprise by Geoff Monk's reluctance to ramp either. Neither the progress of the warm frontal snow (or rain) Sunday into Monday nor the position or longevity of the WAA to Scandinavia is determined yet. MWIS is a serious organisation forecasting essential information for the now rather than speculating on longer term options. They've been stung many times by the unexpected. Having said that, just looking at the 12Z ECM coming out and it is looking encouraging for the frontal stuff Sunday night into Monday.

There're some huge showers showing up over the West of Ireland just now in temperatures of 1-2 C and the scale of which didn't seem to be modelled by the NAE. Looking good for a few surprises tomorrow perhaps.

The ECM & GFS are identikits in 5 days time. Sunday into Monday could see contant, moderate to heavy snowfall across Scotland as cold air from the east undercuts the moist Atlantic. Cold wins in both the GFS & ECM Here's the 12Z ECM & GFS side by side at 120 hours

Nothing particularly marginal in the GFS 12Z on Sunday->Monday with cold undercutting heavy frontal precipitation. I like it a lot.

^ Yep, there's a bit of slushy snow still on the ground here despite the last few hours of steady, cold drizzle. There were a good few cm lying first thing though.but with outside temperature now up to 2.3C and steadily rising, it'll be back to mud & green by darktime.

Rain->Snow here between 23.00 and midnight. Still snowing now but there's only about an inch has managed to build on the base of water. Temp 0.7C, DP 0.5C

The cold enough uppers aren't much further south from you though, just at the 'wrong' end of the A701. I took a drive up to the Beef Tub about 30 minutes ago and the snow is lying thick and falling fast, fun even with winter tyres . Slush/snow dividing line is 250 metres above Moffat at the moment. Temperature is dropping here by about 1C per hour, currently heavy sleet in Moffat at 145m asl with air temp at 2.0C

I feel sorry for these folk stuck on the A9 ...

Snow warnings removed from MO website. Something has changed in the matrix again.

This is the latest from Hollyrood on schools etc ... http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Releases/2011/12/08001815 I reckon that Dumfries & Galloway's night watchman hasn't worked out how to update their internet page ... http://www.dgcommunity.net/escpublicclosures/schoolsclosed.aspx Snipped from Salmond & Co ... "Schools across west, central and southern Scotland are set to not open or to close on Thursday after the latest expert advice showed that the very severe gales due to hit Scotland were almost certain to close key routes and could result in police advising motorists to avoid travelling." "The decision is a matter for individual authorities but the warnings are of the highest level of seriousness and we are clear that safety has to be the paramount issue. Parents should check locally through websites, local radio and with their schools to find out the specific situation with their own schools"

It's curious that Dumfriesshire aren't closing schools but Borders, Lothian & Strathclyde etc are. Is it muppetry or just a get-on-with-it attitude ? It certainly seems like Moffat & other towns in the Southern Uplands are the direct target of the very strongest winds tomorrow. Anyway, it'll test out the tin roof on the new school.

Glencoe will be open Saturday which will be a sublime day. They've actually announced they'll be opening Friday too but I'm a bit doubtful on account of the wind. There should be plenty of snow for it though. This is me gliding through the powder on Sunday just gone after coming off the Spring Run ....

Despite rain last night, there's still nearly 100% snowcover in Moffat but it's looking a bit wilted. The snow in the hills should still be in condition though.

It normally means something has changed in the Matrix ... red warnings on the way ?

View of Moffat today ...

Current conditions in Moffat ...

Chucking down the white in Moffat. Snowier at Glencoe though which was where I skied today. We had to hike and skin up for our turns, but that meant we had the whole mountain to ourselves to make fresh tracks on. Pity my camera battery suffered the same cold fate as my hands but here're a few dodgy phone shots ... Glenoce ski centre mid-mountain plateau ... Just about back to the car park as it got dark ... Spring Run powder action ... My companions on the way to the summit ...

No, that's not what it means. Those countour lines are the modelled expected freezing level at that time. They'd be just about as unreliable as the accumulated snow charts, residual 'lying snow' charts and any other chart output at that range but nonetheless, as GFS saw it at that moment, those were its expected snow depths over the Low Countries. See ... http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-3-192.png?12

There should be opportunities for some good, long ski descents soon enough if you're prepared to make your own way up the hill.

Yep Andy, same MR, here, there & everywhere. :blush: I'm thinking of sneaking a day's holiday for Monday because it's looking good as the ridge crosses over us and the drifts on the slopes will be sorted by then and there'll be no queues. Reckon the local ski touring for the next couple of weeks will have to start with a hike to reach the skinnable snow line though. Longer term, even as a fantasy Easterly doesn't look like emerging after our deep cold has gone, it's then a flattish zonal pattern that looks like establishing. The NWP is still keeping the jet track around the English channel on average so it'll be rainy and windy at house level but with great opportunities from time to time for huge accumulations of west wind blown snow on the mid to upper mountains. Nevis back corries may be on in big style sooner than we hoped.

D'oh !! ... and I've just signed up after lurking in this thread since the 17th December.