moffatross

It doesn't look like tomorrow evening's snow showers will amount to much but the GFS ensemble set does suggest there's a 50/50 chance of a heavy snow event on the northern edge of the system passing by on Saturday night. If the dice do fall right, its trajectory is nowhere near nailed down yet, so it could affect anywhere from Southern Scotland to Argyll/Stirling.

And a different time. Our summer was mince throughout.

Further heavy rain, although easing for a time this evening before becoming heavier again in early hours (Met Office).

Annan in Moffat is already at 95% of its highest ever SEPA recorded level and with another 12 hours of rain to come, I can't see anything but a new high. http://apps.sepa.org.uk/waterlevels/?sd=t&lc=133182 As I said on Thursday afternoon while we were all getting excited by the snow, this has been well modelled ... https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84475-scotland-weather-discussion-20th-november-2015-and-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=3295587

Haha, exactly ! Uphill rain or jetwash rain are horrible and unmanageable. Most of Moffat is immune to flooding from rivers but not from the flash flood run-offs from the hills or the weathering rain. Just saw that Whitesands in Dumfries has flooded again. P.S. No offence taken or meant re amazon and/or WOS and I think most people know or can make their own assessments of both :-)

It's grim in the hoose let alone outside. We have soaked carpets in both our south facing rooms. Render and wooden windows are no match for hour upon hour of heavy rain lashed in on gale force winds.

Disliking him has nothing to do with politics and everything to do with how much right-wing nonsense you're prepared to tolerate. As a YES voter and an SNP member, I perceive him as a neo-fascist gobsh... who knows or cares very little about contemporary Scotland (and how could he having made his home in the SW of England ?) but enjoys the buzz he gets from his excited numpty fans

The biggest amazon warehouse in western Europe is actually on nobody's side but their own. But I'm not surprised that Stuart Campbell is obtuse enough to gloat about it without thinking twice about mistreated employees or tax evasion

GFS is currently modelling gusts around 65 mph on Friday, and in excess of 70 mph on Saturday evening in Glasgow and Edinburgh. Coupled with 75-150 mm of rain in the west, it could be an eventful weather weekend for the wrong reasons.

Just driven from Gala to Moffat. Sleet & wet snow falling at 2C on all the high roads in the Moffat/Tweedsmuir Hills and there's a nice fresh dusting of white on the tops :-)

The limit to the strong wind and heavy rain appears to be much further south than modelled. We had a couple of hours of lashing rain this morning and some strong gusts around midday but now it's relatively calm and we have a sunny afternoon. There's fresh snow on the tops where MWIS forecast only rain, so I surmise that the cold air is (at least) 50 miles or so further south than had been expected.

Nice powdery snow falling just now. That counts as two snow days (last night's snow started at about 11.45 pm) Edit ... it wasn't as interesting as the radar suggested, just dandruff really.

There's still a little bit of snow on the ground at Moffat plus some incoming judging by the radar but it's been an ice day here, quite uncommon for mid-November. I'm hoping it'll be a wee bit warmer tomorrow as I'm expecting to be up on Lowther Hill, trying to get our webcams running again.

Snow settling in Moffat :-) Edit ... there're coos in the field next to the house and they're a wee bit exited by it going by the racket they're making !

We've got our webcams on Lowther Hill now It was a task though, and while it seemed everybody else was in the Highlands enjoying some of the best skiing of the season, we had five days straight on the summit, drilling, cutting, fixing, wiring, testing and networking data across some of the most erratic mobile coverage in Scotland. But we're now on-line with 2 automated cameras looking down the hill across the club's ski slopes on Lowther Hill itself, powered by sunlight and communicating to the world through mobile phone masts somewhere out there. Thanks go to www.winterhighland.info whose freely given time, dedication to the task and expertise were absolutely exemplary, and of course for the Public's donations that paid for the hardware to make it possible. Over the coming weeks, we'll add the weather station for a live weather feed and extend the camera network to include a view up from the club house towards the engine hut and radome. The camera feeds may be intermittent just now but once we have worked out the best configuration, mobile operator, location of data transceivers etc, the reliability should improve. It'll take time and pattern monitoring to do that but it's a unique installation, and I can't think of any other locations in Scotland where there are webcams running without external power. Actually, there are few webcams running across mobile networks at all really, most being hardwired to the internet so an off-grid installation like this one is pretty special, and to have one on a summit makes it even more so. Camera linky ... http://www.skiclub.lowtherhills.com/webcams Some pix (mostly Sunday's stunning sunset) ...https://www.flickr.com/photos/88898381@N02/sets/72157651735615226/

Eclipse prediction anybody ? Our high pressure by Friday is modelled by ECM/GFS/MO etc to be centred a few 100 miles WSW of Ireland which allows low pressure to slip across Central Europe over the weekend. A general low level cloud/clag is modelled over Scotland at 9.30 am on 20th March but many places should get a break to see the sun. There's even a possibility that inversion conditions might set up, with some spectacular mountain top viewing of the eclipse above a sea of cloud for early starters. As of today's GFS 0Z run, a break in the cloud is modelled for eastern/south-eastern areas with Fife/Lothian/Borders expected to be best ... http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015031700/81-562UK.GIF?17-0

Few photos from a superb couple of days at Nevis Range. Super-lush Saturday in Coire Dubh & Summit Gully then a cold sleep overnight in the car with thick frost on the inside of the windows when I woke up. Took advantage of some free professional climbing instruction Sunday morning, and enjoyed even more laps of the back corries in the afternoon with the assistance of the mythical Braveheart chairlift, first time I've ridden it in 6 years. Summit Coire Saturday... Coire an Lochan Saturday ... On the way up to Climbers Col for some training on Sunday morning ... Riding the Braveheart on Sunday afternoon ... More lushness in Summit on Sunday ...

Seems to me that we've got a better hope of seeing some northern blocking high pressure soon than we've had all winter. Both ECM & GFS have been playing with the idea on and off the last few days and now they're both building HP over Greenland in the 7-10 day range. After today's and tomorrows rinse and repeats, we've a quite period of weather coming up but then 'out like a lion' perhaps ?

I reckon the A9 is shouting "Ye shall not pass !" at the rain ...

With respect to the Met Office (and I do have a lot of respect for them), whatever it saw a few weeks ago for late March was only educated and well resourced crystal ball gazing. The only near certainty that I can see is that high pressure with warm uppers will be in place at the weekend. The GFS ensembles are clear on that. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015030106/graphe3_1000___-3.8_55.3_.gif The way I see it, into next week, we could be in for a mild spell, heading back to where we are now, or even slipping towards that mythical easterly.

We had a 20-30 cm (difficult to say for sure with the drifting) snowfall in Moffat on 12th March 2006. Parts of Dumfries & Galloway got hit by a bigger snowfall on 24th March 2013. I reckon Spring begins in April.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings "The public are advised to be aware of tricky travel conditions generally, and possible disruption to transport ... in particular for road travel on Monday morning ... This seems most likely for parts of Scotland ..."

It's quiet here, so who'd take bets on ... 1. The Met Office issuing weather warnings at 11.05 am today for snow showers this evening and tonight. Yellow be aware, impact low, mainly high routes, drifting, covering in places, yada, yada, yada 2. The Met Office issuing weather warnings on Saturday at 11.05 am for heavy snow on Monday morning. Yellow be aware, impact high, uncertainty, track further north or south, significant disruption, rush hour, yada, yada, yada. Good game, good game, hope you're all playing at home

Yep, we've been expecting the weather warnings, but interesting to see 4 days worth. With the mildest part of the mild sector on Sunday having been gradually 'unmilded' over the last couple of days, some big snowfalls are now possible over the hills. ECM had over 100cm in its 10 dayer for Lochaber yesterday. When MWIS ran their forecasts Weds and yesterday, I did raise an eyebrow at their very bullish forecast for heavy rain at 4 degrees around 900 metres when all model output suggested otherwise.

Thanks, November. The annual membership cost is about the price of a day ticket at Gorm, Shee, Coe, Nevis & Lecht or Braehead XScape, but for that price, you can come along ski whenever the cub is running lifts. We've got about 200 members now, and have run portable tows in various locations about 15 days so far this season, with some days when 30-40 members have been along already. You've got to sign up for membership in advance though, but some people are doing it the day before their first visit. Regards 'off piste', as we don't have a groomer, strictly speaking, it's all 'off-piste', even next to the tow line, but we also have a great wee gully to go at too. Here're some pix I've taken starting from Lowther Hill ... https://www.flickr.com/photos/88898381@N02/sets/72157649336482618/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/88898381@N02/sets/72157649659082211/ We do hope to get a groomer to help consolidate the snow, but don't yet have the money. As per the recent announcement, the established ski resorts are getting a 75% contribution to new infrastructure for every 25% they put in, but without getting overly 'political', the SW of Scotland doesn't have access to that scheme, although I hope we can find some other help towards funding. Anyway, here's a link to the club web page where you can join up, and which also includes an on-link to the crowd fund site for the webcam and weather station ... http://www.skiclub.lowtherhills.com/ Purely from my weather geekdom POV, with one of our cameras & the weather station located at 700 metres ASL, the data will be fascinating. And on days like today, whatever the time of the year, the view north over the inversion towards the Central Belt should be stunning.