moffatross

Yep, no excuse. Can you imagine the chaos on the M-8 just now with all the folk thinking they're invincible in their 4x4's with unsiped tyres, slamming into barriers and bumpers ? Edit .. that was weird. Some forum auto-txt replacement going on and every time I typed the capital M followed by the numeral 8 it was replaced with 'mate'.

The Met Office 12Z actually looks rather better than the GFS, with warm air pushing up to Greenland where GFS doesn't even see thicknesses rise there. And yes, the next week looks interesting for the northern half of the UK at least. But the model watching melodramaticists are hanging (themselves) on every GFS and ECM run as they'd already convinced themselves they'd see the fabled Omega Block, and that the Met Office were wrong to expect a return of the Atlantic by the second half of January. Seems weird that we get the same happening every winter, and still none of them trust the Met Office !

Vehicles without winter tyres shouldn't be allowed on the road between November and March.

We got a couple of inches of moist snow here at Moffat and it'll still be lying by the morning so I reckon that's 3 snow days so far this winter, maybe 4, but they've all been pretty unconvincing. As for the deep freeze, the 12Z GFS has warm air welling up from the Azores before next weekend, and the -8 850 contour barely gets south of the Scottish border and only stays with us for about a day. The MO threads here and over at TWO are going in a rather predictable direction.

We are all weather nerds here but ironically, as ever, the above only surprises a particularly naive subset of us. I can see how those that don't appreciate the vagaries of NWP getting mesmerised by the flames of the model output ramping fire but I always wonder at the trust they put in the voodoo types who appear to have a bit more knowledge, and the mother of all wintry spells they see in its flames year after year.

Aye, which is why I don't bother in the MO thread here, and why I left TWO too. Anyway, my suspicions were founded, it turned out to be a toppler, and the TOORP'ers are out in their droves already although the first half of the GFS timescale is actually better for Scotland than any GFS run I've seen recently, and the cool zonal spell of the second half would be a cracker for us skiers :-) http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations/3h.htm

I have a sneaking suspicion that the customary Pete Tong is about to surface in the 18Z GFS pub run. I rarely look in at the MO thread here, and I'm not a forum member on TWO any more, but the discussion in the MO thread there is in absolute ramp mode too, comparisons being drawn with pretty much every memorable or historic winter. Realistically, it's going to get cooler, drier, and less windy for a wee while and there'll also be some snow to low levels.

I have the deepest sympathy and have been thinking much the same for the last few months. But I can assure you that it is still up there, and has been flirting with finally showing itself to Moffat the last hour or so in between the spells of drizzle.

A pair of shoe spikes from Lidl. That'll delay winter until you forget where you put them. http://www.lidl-service.com/cps/rde/xchg/SID-3DF8BBE8-64E07BF3/lsp/hs.xsl/product.html?id=25709818&title=Sz

It's been minging in Moffat all day with stupid amounts of rain again. I was actually looking forward to this spell of vaguely Easterly weather as that usually means it's drier here but the bloody climate has changed :-( At least it's not windy :-)

The GFS is knocking out even more violent storms. Thankfully this is a week away, so we're likely to see something else come the day ... This one models a remarkable 932 millibar surface pressure over Lewis.

I know what you mean. Any drier weather type, be it cold and snowy, or mild and blocked, would do me for a wee while. Aside from the pure interest factor of records being broken, there is nothing I like about the present pattern.

Drip, drip, drip, Frank is the victor. All the fresh lime, tar and mastic were defeated, water still succeeded in getting blown into every nook and cranny and into the hoose. Booger ! Lots of the upper rivers have hit record levels, the Annan at Moffat, the Tweed at Tweedsmuir, the Cree at Wheeb Bridge, rain is still hosing in, the hills are far from drained, and all that water has still to make its way to the low lying areas. http://apps.sepa.org.uk/waterlevels/default.aspx?sm=t

Yes Michael, another bout of hosepipe style rain coupled with tile lifting wind gusts. My least favourite weather and a type that's been delivered in spades for weeks and weeks now.

The Met Office are using interesting language in their warning updates this morning ... "The low which is expected to generate these very strong winds is currently deepening explosively over the mid Atlantic, and therefore uncertainty remains regarding its exact track. As such this warning will be kept under review."

Went for a wee circular walk from Manorhead south of Peebles yesterday and found a surprising amount of snow up in the hills.

Inland, and in the hilliest bit of Dumfriesshire, less than 25 miles NE of you, we had 10 nice days at the end of September and into October, but that was it apart from the nice week in early June. I'd also agree that the relentless rain this year has been appalling, and coupled with the incessant wind that's been driving it into every nook and cranny, it's certainly been the grimmest year of weather I remember.

Sorry to pee on your chips at xmas, but the evolution of any form of northern latitude block in the foreseeable future is far from certain.

Crimbo greetings :-) This is the one I've been concerned about for a few days, GFS has been modelling wind gusts up to 80 mph for the 29th/30th. Not uncommon for the Western Isles but exceptional for inland areas. Now that the Met Office have issued a general warning for it, and five days in advance too, makes it less of a GFS bad dream fantasy and more of a realistic possibility ... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&regionName=dg&fcTime=1451347200&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50 Edit ... 12Z GFS has 86 mph gusts modelled for the capital !

The model output this morning looks grim through into the New Year now. It's like Gandalf is standing at the Bridge of Khazad-dûm and instead of commanding to the incoming Atlantic storms, "You shall not pass !", has taken to waiting there in a Bell Boy suit, opening the door for them, and carrying their luggage too.

I wish. Nope, Moffat enjoyed about 10 nice days mid-late September and a decent week or so in June IIRC. The rest of the year was pretty mingtastic. Today has been shocking. Rain from start to finish, and some of it has made its way into the house once more. Relentless gale force SSW'lies driving water in through every nook and cranny. Roll on 2016, weatherwise, it surely can't be worse.

I struggle to tell the difference between spring, summer, autumn and winter this year as they've just been one long, dreich, windy and wet load of pish. Perhaps I should swap back to the car's summer wheels and tyres just to tempt fate :-)

Ditto here. Cold, damp and unusually calm. As for its location, it's a litte further north than it was modelled early yesterday, but a lot further south than it was modelled a few days ago.

Braw pix fae Norn Iron :-)

As we've informed the Lowther Hills Ski Club members now, I can share the post-Desmond scene that greeted us on Sunday with our (nearly 2 tonne with its contents) portacabin that had been donated by Clark Tracks from Dumfries and had served as a temporary club hut, found about 200 metres away from where we'd positioned it halfway up the hill. An enormous amount of work had gone into setting it up but it's totally wrecked and it'll be an interesting recovery and clear-up mission, the last thing we need as we've got so much still to do ready for the season. It's not the first storm damage we've suffered, and it won't be the last so we'll just get on with making Scotland's only not-for-profit ski centre happen :-)