Arctic Hare

Still good, snowy conditions here -- steady snow with small flakes. A fair covering everywhere now, and temp still -1.0 °C.

Proper snow here -- nice medium-sized flakes now, a dusting on the grass. Temp -0.8 °C; steady as she goes!

Ah, but that just makes the anticipation all the more exciting, surely? Plus, of course, you'll still have snow when it's all over for us lot further west.

Very light snow here in Bewdley now! Tiny flakes, but just starting to show on the roads. Not the main band, but it's still snow! Those in Stourbridge etc shouldn't have long to wait. Still -1.2 °C here, too!

Bah -- that rogue shower was heading right for me, but has died out at the last minute. Not that I was expecting anything this early of course, but it would have been nice. Here's hoping all of us in our snow-starved region have a good story to tell by close of play tonight.

Morning everyone. Got down to -8.5 °C last night, so the "coldest night of winter" box has been ticked off. Now for round two! Grey and overcast but dry here right now.

Currently -6.1 °C here...

The station at Nottingham/Watnall is reporting -2.9 °C, and that's only 20-25 miles south of you, so I'd say the -2.7 °C station is right. -7.2 °C seems much too low for Chesterfield right now.

So, which will last longer -- an England innings or Midlands snow? A tricky call!

Currently -4.2 °C here. Colder than it was last night at the same time.

I'm not as knowledgeable as many others, but I suspect that for Worcs it will be a snow-to-rain event. That said, it's so close that even your 115 m of altitude may make a noticeable difference.

Hmmm... 7 Jan 2011 wasn't a nice day at all here. Lying snow in the morning, yes, but by lunchtime the thaw was well underway, and (as you say, despite a low max) the afternoon was a horrible, slushy, murky, raw mess. I'd still take it over the 0 mm of snow we've had this winter so far, though!

To my eye, the 12z NAE is a definite upgrade compared with the 06z. Compare the new T+30 chart with the older run's T+36 for the same time period. On the 06z, the rain/snow boundary was roughly along the Welsh border. The 12z shows snow as far west as mid-Wales. Maybe not a huge change, but any westward shift is welcome -- I still think the E Mids will do better, but it increases the chance that we'll all get something to look at.

The last time we had 15 cm here from any sort of snowfall was in 1996, so I certainly wouldn't agree that the west Midlands was prone to "absolute dumpings". The MetO update is better than I'd expected, to be honest. The yellow/amber dividing line goes more or less right through Bewdley, when I was expecting it to be well out east of Coventry. If that amber zone could just nudge 50 miles further west, the whole Midlands would be inside it -- and that really is a rare event! Just for once, it would be nice for all of us to get something. Just 24 hours or so to go now, so this one really is going down to the wire. Edit: Note the Chief Forecaster's Assessment on the MetO warnings page. "As is often the case in these situations the very cold airmass will be reluctant to give way..." -- maybe, just maybe, a hint that the system might struggle to get E as easily as, say, the NAE progged? Clutching at straws maybe, but who knows?

All eyes on the MetIO warnings next, I think. The current ones are still those issued yesterday, and they came out at 12.42, so it could update any time now. I must be honest and say that I have a sinking feeling about tomorrow for here. What odds a rain-only event at this rate?

Who knows?! If you want to be optimistic, remember Feb 2007. It was forecast to be a snow-to-rain event on the Saturday, and by the evening the snow had died out and the thaw seemed to be on. Completely against most of the forecasts, the cold pushed back and we had a fair bit more snow on the Sunday. So it can happen, even in this region! Occasionally...

I know it will change, but that T+60 fax is a work of art! If it does come off, I suppose we shouldn't laugh if the Midlands gets all the snow and the SE ends up with nothing... ...should we?

One of those hunches, nothing more... but I have a feeling Warwickshire might well be the place to be for snow. Especially the higher parts around the Cotswolds -- something quite good could be on for there. Obviously in IMBY mode I'd like NW Worcs to be the hot... er, coldspot. I just feel we're a little too far west. But who knows, given the way the models and forecasts have bounced around these last few days?

Just a thought, and feel free to shoot me down if it's a silly one... but might there be a chance of freezing rain for some of this region over the weekend?

A very interesting Met Office page, pointed out by Global Warming over on TWO: http://www.metoffice...ngency-planners Quite an interesting insight into MetO thinking about the coming month and season, especially the "Temperature" and "Precipitation" sections. A colder late winter/early spring than we've often experienced of late seems to be considered likely.

It's -4.2 °C here right now. My record low without snow cover is -9.0 °C, recorded in the early hours of 28 Nov 2010. I wonder whether that might come under threat this week...?

A nice surprise to see something getting this far east! Bone dry here in NW Worcs, but never mind.

Not looking too bad at the moment... I see some people worrying that it could "all go wrong" and turn into "another Feb 2007". Well... for the Midlands (at least, my bit of it) that spell wasn't a complete disaster -- it gave us a full weekend of almost solid snow in an otherwise pretty snowless winter.

The yellow MetO snow warning for Monday is worth keeping an eye on for those in the west of this region. Only low likelihood if you read the Chief Forecaster's comments, but you never know. Closer to home, tonight could well be my first air frost in almost a fortnight -- mad for January!

As others have said, really striking light conditions today. The mildness too, though in fact it was colder here today (max 12.4 °C) than yesterday's remarkable max of 14.0 °C. I can't say I'm too fond of great mildness in the middle of winter, though: let's leave that until late March, when the clocks have changed and there's a bit of light in the evening!