Arctic Hare

Everything here today was rain, the max was 6 °C -- rather higher than forecast -- and it's still 2.8 °C now. Add to that the reports in the Wales thread -- current snow line seems to be about 250m asl -- and I really can't expect anything of interest in these parts overnight. Those up around Leek etc might have a different story, of course.

Interesting bus journey from Kidderminster to Bewdley a little while ago. A foul afternoon in Kiddy, with heavy cold rain. At the top of Bewdley Hill (c. 100m asl) it had changed to heavy snow, though very wet stuff. Down in Bewdley town centre (c. 20m asl) it was rain again, and a bit lighter. Back home (90m asl) it had just about stopped but there was a thin, very slushy layer left on roads and car windows/roofs.

Wet, cold and dull (in both senses!) here. I can see snow on the Clent Hills from my house, but here in Bewdley there's absolutely nothing. Hey ho.

Light rain (just rain) and 1.7 °C. The temperature has barely budged in an hour, and the rain is getting lighter and lighter. I think I'm going to call it a night; good luck to everyone else, and great to hear Brum is getting some snow.

Down to 1.9 °C here, but still just rain.

Just rain here. Every so often I almost convince myself it's a bit sleety, but I don't think it is. 2.4 °C and fairly steady, which seems just that little bit too mild as of yet.

For what it's worth (not much at this stage) it's 3.7 °C here.

Not to the standard NW Extra shows. You can see an NMM chart via Meteociel (listed as WRF) but it's not very easy to use, not least because the British coast is nearly (but not quite!) invisible. Here it is, anyway: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php

MetO regional text forecasts updated, and tonight's outlook is now as follows. W Mids: Dry with some clear spells this evening but cloud increasing from the west. Some persistent rain arriving by midnight, turning to snow by dawn possibly giving small accumulations in places. Minimum temperature -1 °C. E Mids: Any showers clearing, then dry for a time but becoming increasingly cloudy with rain developing across most parts late evening/overnight. Then later in the night rain is likely to turn to sleet or snow across southern and western parts. Minimum temperature 1 °C. I'm not too keen on "turning to snow by dawn" -- sunrise isn't till after 8 am at this time of year, so taken at face value that W Mids forecast would mean up to eight hours of rain before any snow appeared. I know in reality it's less precise than that, but I think it's going to be a long night for anyone staying up radar/lamp-post watching.

You don't say where you live, so it's impossible to know whether you had this... but though 2006/07 wasn't a good winter at all for snow, in these parts at least we did have one very snowy weekend in February 2007. On that occasion the snow was forecast to change back to rain by the Saturday night, but in fact stayed as snow for another 24 hours! As for tonight's system... I have a nasty feeling that it's not going to be as intense a system as had been thought, and that the precipitation from it will be rather light -- too light to change from rain to snow. I'm just north of the amber/yellow border on the MetO warnings, but if I were a betting hare I'd put my money on a downgrade rather than an upgrade later today. I hope I'm wrong, of course!

Got up to get a drink of water, and couldn't resist a look... the MetO regional forecast for the West Midlands has already updated, a little earlier in the night than usual. Here's the important bit, for Thu night into Fri: Cloudy but dry for a time, but heavy rain and strong winds soon developing, turning to heavy wet snow later in the night, probably causing some disruption by morning. Minimum temperature -1 °C. So... as things stand the MetO are standing by the idea of snow for this region. (Sorry, East Midlanders -- that forecast hasn't yet updated.) It'll probably all have changed in a few hours' time, mind you!

So, on the 18z it does appear to be a bit of a case of NAE against the world! I can remember times when NAE stuck to its guns and was proved right (I have a feeling there was one in Jan 2010) but against that, there was the "blizzard that wasn't" which was shoved hundreds of miles south at quite short notice. Being realistic our chances look to be diminishing, but you never know!

Seriously marginal for me, I'd have thought. Even my 90m might make the difference over down by the Severn (which is about 20m) but I think the odds are, just, in favour of its not quite being cold enough here. By gum it's going to be interesting, though! (Unless the low scoots way to the south and misses us altogether, of course...)

Just had a sleet shower! Okay, not exactly thrilling news, but still the first wintry precipitation (not counting hail) I've seen since January. Only stayed as sleet for about 20 seconds before becoming lighter and turning to rain. Mind you, the whole shower only took around 1 minute...

Shower just arrived here in Bewdley. All rain, unsurprising as it's 3.8 °C.

Nice to see some people in the region getting snow -- keep those reports coming! I think I'm a bit far north here to see anything -- certainly it's been dry all day since the morning rain cleared -- but you never know when a rogue shower might sneak through. Now 4.1 °C after a max of 6.7 °C, incidentally.

Dry here, and mostly bright, though there are some "interestingly grey" clouds on the horizon from time to time. My guess last night was that there'd be at least sleet reports from the region today, so that's already come to pass. Also, for what it's worth, here's the current TAF for Birmingham Airport: TAF EGBB 131103Z 1312/1412 23012KT 9999 FEW035 TEMPO 1312/1324 23015G25KT 8000 SHRA PROB40 TEMPO 1312/1322 23025G35KT 4000 SHRASN BKN014 PROB40 TEMPO 1407/1412 23015G25KT 4000 SHRA SHRASN "SHRASN" means sleet showers. No mention of SHSN (snow showers) so those of us at lower elevations probably shouldn't get our hopes up too much. I must say I'm really surprised at Ben Rich's forecast as mentioned above -- a thin covering on the higher elevations wouldn't surprise me, but four inches? Wow... if that comes off, some of you (on the hills) are going to have an early Christmas present! :smilz38:

Living in Telford does that to you... My own guess is that someone in this forum will have reported sleet, at least, by midnight tomorrow. Settling snow is another kettle of fish entirely, and I suspect that will need considerable altitude. I could see the Shropshire hills, the Staffs moorlands, somewhere like that getting a thin covering, though.

I saw it pointed out elsewhere that if the surface pressure is (say) 970 mb, then the 850 layer will be closer to the ground than it would be with the surface pressure 1010 mb!

12z NAE quite keen on snow showers in our region once tonight's main rain has passed through, ie tomorrow and into Wednesday, though the impression is that not many will get very far inland. Even if it's cold enough at this altitude, I may be a bit sheltered by the Welsh mountains here, though I remember one shower (23 Dec 2009) that made it here right the way from Aberystwyth and gave us 2 cm or so.

The 6z GFS ensembles are interesting, as has been said elsewhere. For this neck of the woods, the 2m (air) temperatures don't really get above 5C on any run from tomorrow until about the 19th, with the exception of the bump for Friday's system: -- which itself is far from nailed on: http://176.31.229.22...run=6&runpara=0

Now you mention that, the 2003 event does ring a bell or two; I think I remember seeing some fairly substantial branches broken off oak trees on the edge of the Wyre Forest etc. The forecast for my postcode here on NW suggests 60 mph or so gusts possible from as early as the Thursday night rush hour, and right through until lunchtime on Friday. That's serious wind for this generally sheltered part of the world.

Indeed... when did this region last have winds of that magnitude, I wonder? At least here in Worcs, the 1987 storm wasn't actually all that bad, certainly compared with further SE. I can't remember how strong the winds were in the Burns Night Storm in 1990; I think flooding was the major concern in England rather than gusts.

The grass here was brown until a few days ago, but is now mostly back to green after the recent showers, many of which have had Bewdley in the firing line. It hasn't really felt like a drought year, but that probably has a lot to do with its being a relatively cool and (especially in August) dull period. The worst of all worlds for many people, I suspect: if it's going to be this dry, with all the problems that brings, it might have the decency to be a bit warmer and sunnier too!

February 2009 might be one for me. Massive snow depths just a few miles south in Gloucestershire, yet the deepest we had at any point that spell was 6 cm. Okay, not as bad as not getting snow at all -- being in the 1% of the country that didn't get any in Jan 2010 must have been far worse. Still very annoying, though. Also, the wonderful aurora display from a few years ago -- I can't remember the year; might have been around 2001. But not only was there 100% cloud cover and drizzle all night in my location, I also had horrible flu and could barely walk to the window anyway.