[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

Heights lowering around Greenland. Jet moving north, high pressure slowly moving north east. Do we finally have lift off? 

[Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond]

ECM 168. Heat pump in place to the SW. Here we go..

 

 

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

Morning all.
 

Whilst I’m not too worried about the detail at this range, I’m pleased to see the ECM’s idea of low pressure winding up in Greenland area and the jet moving north in response  

 

 

[Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas]

GFS 234, a huge block is being created here east to west. Is this the sort of setup that will drag in the really cold air from Russia

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2020 Onward]

32.4 Filton, Bristol

 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/06/2020 Onward]

As others have said. Temps have taken off like a rocket here in Bristol this morning.

Currently 29.6 

I think we’ll go degree higher than yesterday’s temp of 31.

[Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?]

GFS 06z makes much less of the Atlantic push. The trough disrupts and drops further south drawing more heat up.

by next Thursday, this is the result....

36c in the London area, raw temps

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer]

Ok, now we’re getting somewhere. I’ll bank this 144 ukmo.

 

Trough pulling back west, jet aligning SW-NE and pressure rising from the south

[Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!]

ECM sniffing around a plume at 240hrs too.

Pressure falling around Greenland and the trough pulling back west into the Atlantic.

Letd hope this trend is built upon in the coming days. 

[Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!]

Plume alert....

[Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?]

Looking for signs of our next bout of settled weather, I’m encouraged by the 0z ECM.

Comparing the 168hrs chart below you can see northern blocking suppressing the jet and associated trough into our area.

The next chart is the 240hrs. You can see by then the northern blocking has evaporated and been replaced by low pressure in the southern Greenland area. The trough has pulled back, getting the jet on a favourable SW-NE axis and allowing the Azores high to ridge in.

 

Backed up by the 240 mean  

 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

It’s still coming down thick and fast here. 

 

Due to the slight rise in temp and compacting, I think we’re not accumulating much more tho and will level out at around 20cm.

 

what a fantastic event this has been!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Another hour of this and I could squeeze out 24cm I reckon.

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

It it’s like someone’s shaking feathers out of a pillowcase here!!! 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Absolutely hammering down now!!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Well i’m gobsmacked at this.

10 years of looking at the models and I never imagined that such a set up could bring me the heaviest snow I’ve seen in my 34 years. Closing in on 20cms here.

I just had to take my 4month old son out in it, although I was more exited than he was! 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

I make it a level 18cms here in south Bristol and still coming down thick and fast. Incredible 

[Model output discussion - summer rolls on]

The GFS 06z is continuing the trend of toning down the depth of the trough next week.

The core of the low not making landfall in Scotland before moving away.

 

By 168hrs the Azores high is nosing in again, I think the breakdown has been toned down in the last 24hrs.

 

[Model output discussion - summer rolls on]

What I find fascinating is that normally, following any modelled plume, the jet quickly ramps up and blasts it all away. The 216 and 240 charts while being a bit of a mess, shows this just isn’t happening. Certainly not normal service this year!

 

 

 

[Model output discussion - summer rolls on]

Totally agree re the ECM’s strange goings on. With the frames being 24hrs apart, I’ve always enjoyed trying to work out what the next one will be, to some success.

But the last few days, I have no idea what it’s going to do next! The frames just don’t seem to stitch together logically if you know what I mean. 

[Model output discussion - summer rolls on]

UKMO showing a good recovery at 120, 144hrs.

Good to see the summer of 2018 also bucking the recent trend of summer troughs getting encased in higher pressure and stuck over the Uk for a week or more. 

 

Low lifting out nicely

 

 

[Model output discussion - summer rolls on]

As Singularity said yesterday, the models are playing around with the positioning of high pressure and therefore where the really hot uppers go will change with it.

But when we have charts like this in the mid range, with such a large area of hot uppers so close by, I don’t think anything can be ruled out... 

 

[Model output discussion - summer rolls on]

31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

So, its very warm to hot for most of this week , a cooler blip come weekend, and then there seems to be a growing signal for the heat to rebuild as we move through next week.

The EC mean is primed by day 10 to re introduce a plume from Spain.

You really have to tip your hat to Tamara who has been incredibly accurate in recent weeks..

Summer 2018 is surpassing all expectations/hopes.

edit With so many brilliant contributors to this forum its hard to single out people but i forgot to mention stormchaser who has also been absolutely brilliant with his analysis and reasoning.

Thanks to these guys and all the others who make this forum both educational and a thoroughly enjoyable reading.

I have to echo this northwestsnow. Tamara, singularity and others have been very impressive in their grasp on the situation this summer. It’s been really enjoyable to follow.

What’s also been great is the number of contributors this summer, it’s rivalled winter for the amount of posts and buzz for me. It’s been great to see so many coldies in here this year chasing the heat too! Great stuff

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 21/05/2018 Onwards]

Temperatures not far off 30c this afternoon, which is pretty rare off a westerly for this location and testament to the remarkable summer we’re having. 

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

Goodness me.

With the Gfs underplaying of temps, that’s a record breaking chart.