[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

That day 10 chart from the 12 gfs is seriously hot! 

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

Much more like it from the ECM, that’s a scorcher at 168!

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

And now we have a similar heat pump setup forming on the 06z GFS........

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

Just comparing the ECM 144 of last night at the bottom to tonight’s ECM 120 below. The jet looks on more of a sw/ne axis tonight with a more robust area of high pressure associated with it. Hopefully this result in a better second half of the run 

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

210hrs we’re right back in heatwave territory. Goodness me!

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

By 192hrs High pressure from the SW has reinforced the ridging. Considering we’d already be 2 weeks into a fine spell by this point, it’s fast becoming an exceptional spell of weather.

 

 

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

06z GFS at 138hrs, lows pulling back into the Atlantic with the jet much better aligned SW-NE. Looks poised to build a good ridge thru Uk and Scandanavia here. 

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

Blimey, that’s what you call a classic summer set up! Cracking ECM

 

 

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

Taking a snap shot of the GFS 06z at 240. Really following the script of the 0z ensemble mean. Upper trough regrouping mid Atlantic with a downstream ridge rebuilding in our vicinity. A high pressure dominated outlook.

 

 

 

 

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

12z ECM siding with the UKMO at 120!

 

 

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

12z UKMO is looking much more like it. We keep more separation of the Iberian low and Atlantic trough.

This keeps pressure higher through the uk and look at the very warm 850’s being pumped north. GFS doesn’t agree tho, let’s see what the ECM has to say about it. 

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

168 ECM the Iberian Low is moving out west which is starting to waft up hot air from the south again. Great stuff

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

And at 144 many locations will be sailing through the 30 degree mark surely

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

12z UKMO is an absolute cracker at 120

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards]

Ha exactly @karlos1983 Although it would be nice just to see some falling! 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards]

Hi everyone! This looks a bit more interesting, latest ECM for Monday morning.... 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Still seeing som nice Purbs, P10 for example

Yes,12z GEFS still sniffing around height rises to the NE around the 20th..

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

Hi everyone.

I've been reading this forum a good few years now and I'd like to say thanks to all the regular posters who contribute to this great place for weather geeks!

Thought I was about time I contributed!

Im terms of potential for later in the month, I'm really encouraged by the 06z GEFS. 80% are attempting to build heights NE by the 20th. Shown by the mean charts below

 

 

Way into FI but it seems a strong signal and one to watch.

 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017]

Hi everyone. Just thought I'd throw a quick question out there if I may.

With the Arpege model predicting high temps in my area (Bristol) for the next couple of days, I was wondering if there was an official weather station in urban Bristol? Filton is the closest one that I'm aware of but it's annoying central Bristol doesn't seem to have one and all the other major cities have.

 

Thanks in advance!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards]

Hi everyone. Just thought I'd throw a quick question out there if I may.

With the Arpege model predicting high temps in my area (Bristol) for the next couple of days, I was wondering if there was an official weather station in urban Bristol? Filton is the closest one that I'm aware of but it's annoying central Bristol doesn't seem to have one and all the other major cities have.

 

Thanks in advance!

[South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 06z ----->]

Nae last frame the precip line has edged backwards so considering its 6hrs on a definite step west. And look at the heaviest precip now more south than north!

[South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 15/01/13 12z---->]

I'm sure I heard somewhere that due to higher res, mistakes can be magnified on nae and therefore be less accurete than global models such as UKMO-GM at times.

[Model Output Discussion 13/11/12 18Z onwards]

GFS and ECM in very good agreement i'd say on this run at 216hrs.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0&carte=1

Ok, back in my shell!