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ZONE 51
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Posts posted by ZONE 51
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Not any severe weather in the way of rainfall just yet but do keep check on the forecasts as this may change within a short space of time. For now though I can keep you updated on the rain for tonight.
Warm front crossing the south tonight and eventually the north. NAE-Thickness 500/1000hpa at midnight:
The rain falling now continuing to move east this evening and overnight with heavy bursts in there.
12z NAE ppn data, 2100-0300hrs:
00z EURO4 (for the same hrs)
12z GFS 0000-0300hrs:
12z GFS 0300-0600hrs:
All 3 models indicating some heavy bursts of rain on the fronts this eve/night.
EURO4 rainfall is more patchy for the south, the GFS and NAE more heavier bursts here with up to 10mm over 6hr period.
Looking at this data and latest radar image would suggest the front continuing eastwards bringing mild air with a band of rain some heavy this evening and tonight.
00z NAVGEM:
Indicates several mm of rainfall for many places tonight/by morning.
12z UKMO:
Possibly weakening towards the east tonight, as I said not any severe weather at the moment but the cold front and troughs are on the way and these could produce more heavy downpours this week...
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Would have taken to long to edit in the 100000 bicycles, 500000 old dustbins, and 90000000000000 beer cans..
[if you just logged on I'm referring to an image of a dried out Thames] (not possible this month)
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I'm still onto the prospects of a cold winter after a stormy November, yes their be frost yes we would have mountain snow but it is November! but still interesting see where these elements bite first. You know what this winter is a difficult one to forecast for me, the Jet stream is in power the Atlantic active and mild, and this theme keeping going mostly I expect, but something noticable the track of lows, it's that sudden southerly movement that's been happening the last few years...
This ^^^ what I said back in early Nov, and very much what has been with the Jet continuing strong, I went for late cold but severe, can't find my posts on what I stated about the Scandi high and northeasterly from mid January onwards but looks good to happen (if you like cold that is! even mild fans want a change I bet!)
Looking back at some others posts in here and the forecast thread many if not most people predicted it to be getting cold late January. This could happen soon, and the point is most forecasts/posts regarding the winter prospects went for cold late winter and we are here now at this point and the watch is on!
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Would like to share with readers a piece of my image design work, as we are in the floods with the Thames wanted to show what it could look like if London was in drought with a dry river.
(created a few years ago)
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There be leaks from the rain that's all I heard!
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Cloud layers, very useful especially for looking for the increasing high cloud ahead of weather systems on sunny days..
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Watching an area of wintry ppn affecting from Liverpool down to Birmingham moving east now.
EURO4 indicates the snow risk for areas on the northern part of this ppn band (Leeds and a bit north of here) (also some snow for Scotland)
NAE shows some small zones within this ppn band as snow:
Can show you an image of earlier radar (about 1hr ago) have indicated on the map the area of wintry precipitation(hill snow moslty)
Also to note is the snow shown on the charts for Scotland for Tuesday(today)
Met office have issued warnings for Ice and also the snow for Scotland today:
(was issued early Mon)
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Didn't see the river getting into the gardens along the Thames back then! still was very high and fast though.
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Incredible images from the air of Surrey floods [Thames] 2014
http://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/local-news/sky-high-snaps-show-scale-thames-6503197
Used to live in Weybridge, and I have seen the Thames very high, not been there recently to compare to what it is now. also so often went to the Walton Thames.
Some photos below from floods of Jan2008:
And here comparing the drought of 2006 and the floods during winter2008:
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To echo what others have said, it isn't a great idea to wade about in flood waters. Manhole covers could have popped off due to surcharging, leaving you prone to disappearing entirely down a very deep hole and swimming in sewage.
Yes and I advise if possible to take a big long stick use this to 'feel' the ground in shallow waters for holes.. on unfortunate fall into hole quickly turn big stick to a horizontal -------------- position...
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Certainly make a change from raining cats and dogs ! If it's next week I really don't care I've got my view sorted out already ......
Don't make me find an image of raining polar bears!
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Why do most people not click add to editor when uploading images?
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Drooling over this, Long way out.
This Is the Stratosphere in 384 hours time!!!!!! The polar Vortex has Collapsed over the uk!!!!!
What with the ECMWF predicting a prolonged cold spell & the Stratosphere forecast producing this!!!
Remember this "Might happen" but is very encouraging from Today's ECMWF & even the Met office model hinting at blocking.......
I love twitter.
Thats a very big Hurricane in that image
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Well the heavy showers produced 0.2mm of rain here.
Do you ever get any note worthy rain?
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Models are indicating rain hanging around over the SE tonight, this especially over parts of Kent and possibly east Sussex, if this happens could see up at and around 10-12mm in places, it could miss and brush the Kent coast but latest radar suggests batch of heavy rain heading up from France now, are update later if I'm on here if any changes with this, but for now have done a map for the possibility of the feature/front slowing down over land.
(Map goes up to 7am Tue)
A low-medium risk map here of this happening, the medium risk for rain covering Kent and east Sussex.
Ground very sensitive for rain, and after todays downpours (couldn't do map for this) then more so the risk for mid week potential floods-as more prolonged heavy rainfall.
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Monday (today)
GFS:
Taking a look at the Surface Pressure Tendency hpa for 1800hrs:
This shows rising pressure at the rear of today's rainfall, this is a high pressure ridge resulting in a drier window for Tue.
Before this though we have lower pressure and showery weather, the models indicating most places from north to south seeing some rainfall today, some of this heavy, some showery, and with prolonged bursts in places, a few models are indicating heavy downpours for the south, I expect the Central south and SE seeing some more prolonged rain late on Monday and a possible 12-15mm, EURO4 and NAE showing a pulse of rain for the SE during the evening,
EURO4:
NAE:
So a day of heavy showers/rain and with some thundery especially the south and possibly adding to flood problems, and this is all before mid weeks rainfall.
A look ahead suggest some very wet weather to come.
The GFS accumulated ppn up to later Friday:
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I'm old enough to know that once the weather gets into this kind of rut it's very, very. difficult to shift.I hope I'm wrong but it's not looking good for February.Remember, every single winter forecast was predicting a colder than usual January with snow at times. Where is it ?
Fair enough but try not to dis (put down) peoples forecasts before we get past the period it covers.
Yes I also predicted a cold and snowy January, a mid month Northeasterly was expected, the Scandi high set-up. It's been a turbulent stormy and unusual few weeks and not many expected it to be so severe, it's put some forecasts out (long range) but there is still hope that the pattern can change and possibly a late very cold winter and spring, but also the chances of continuing mild and wet or not to cold and dry, just have to see what happens, perhaps more interesting not really knowing!
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See the FAX at +48hr had looked at this earlier, noticed the big distance between the warm front and cold front behind is a site and looks like it doing the splits!
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This CFS chart here indicating cold air plunged into N/E Europe with the 510 dam, this is far out it's late February but at least gives an idea that the cold could be never to far away even late winter, these charts best checked for consistency of general pattern, this model has been good over the years for indicating Arctic blasts for example even 2 months out, it did well last winter.
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Wishing for snow in this kind of persistent weather set up is pure fantasy in my opinion, and I'm not meaning to be harsh.Remember, at the start of last week a much colder spell this week looked very much on the cards, yet it fizzled into oblivion by the end of the week.I'm just trying to be realistic.The long range charts right up to the 10th February have nothing remotely cold on them this evening. A lazy jet stream winter this certainly ain't. Can't see the rest of February being anything different to what we're experiencing now.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but you say "Can't see February being any different to what we're experiencing now." then why say someones else's forecast/prediction for Feb is fantasy... this is fantasy too then isn't it?
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You want snow now?
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Heavy Rainfall and Flood Watch February 2014
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
Models signally potentially large totals of rain up to Thursday afternoon 20-30mm+ for Wales, Northwest England, Southern and Western Scotland, a cold front moves east Wednesday (today), Rainfall amounts up to 10-15mm for south inclu SE possible late today into night (inclu the heavy shws Thrs)
NAVGEM:
NAE acc ppn on the 18z:
NAE ppn on the 00z (recent)
Things change with the amounts of rain the models indicate until on the day, would know later more detail so something to keep watch on today.