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ZONE 51
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Posts posted by ZONE 51
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Now got gusty here and thick cloudy fast skies, but now dark which is good as any storms be well bright!
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Nothing on TORRO site yet..
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Bit quite around my zone with the weather, thick cloud and a breeze.. calm before the storm perhaps.., things appeared to have slowed down here compared to what was expected now 2 days ago, I think the action in the west is likely to sweep east as the very strong winds set in blowing the weather features into the SE. very interesting!
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Hail parameter, green blob on this map for the SW
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Today rain is likely to start intensifying across the west and north, the east side seeing this developing as we go through this evening, particularly the Central Southern and SE. I have done a map, the orange is where I expect the largest rainfall totals between now and Monday morning, before 7am, and for Monday plenty of action too keep watch for-are post about this tonight if I'm on.
Heavy downpours, thunderstorms, although I have put lightning symbols for the west, I expect these storms to move east tonight...also widespread gales developing at times and severe gusts in places.
(The maps are created using several precipitation models data / other)
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Are you basing the gales and severe gales on the gusts?
Looking inland from what I can see there looks to be only mean winds from moderate to strong inland and gales on coastal areas for tomorrow and Monday.
Yes gusts. (although upgraded now)
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OK this can do for the weekend...
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Recent satellite image, have set the image here to show the storm over the Atlantic
Gales or severe gales on the way. example of this I zoomed into the wind gusts of the MO site, showing gusts 30-40 widespread-and up to 50mph in places inland across the SE on the 3 days ahead, very windy and very wet at times.
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NAE 12z @ +48 (ppn accumulated)
Looking at NAE some large totals tomorrow up to 38mm Central and southern half of Scotland, 20-25mm perhaps more over parts of Southern England.
Watching a small feature that could skim the south tonight, see the little dip in the isobars where I have indicated, and also the next developing storm system for Sunday/Monday (NAE chart)
To add the Jet stream for Sunday, NAE:
I should add the combined chart, it does look very potent and large scale, but is this the last of the storms?
Jet+SLP Sunday GFS
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EURO4 ppn @+21..
EURO4 ppn @+48 (accumulated)
Where is the data???
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Long range forecasters are mentioning that the Jet stream should 'settle' down.... what this means is that not such active wind storms, also the rains should ease down within two weeks? as winds change from the milder direction to a more cold one, still is cold now but talking about really cold air, but this means more likely snow rather than rain.
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At Llandudno wind constant sea down on morning tide .10 mins to night high tide. all lot calmer now.
Welcome to the forum! lots more action to come this weekend lots more concern lots more boats sold?.............well thinking about getting one..
To anyone-Quick question wanted to ask earlier don't mind feeling stupid asking this but how safe is the reservoirs from over topping their banks?? am I right in thinking it is not going to get high enough as is drained off somewhere as the rains fill them up? could here the water hitting the sides on Friday only heard this once in Dec when sounded like a small boat bashing the banks during the storm! sounds like the water is high up there!
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Rather complex weather system moving into southern UK by the morning, just developing into SW England as I type, this rainstorm moving across S-UK and then up to northern areas, the most prolonged and largest rainfall totals as being indicated over southern areas topping up through Saturday (today) the concern of such large rainfall totals here possibly 25mm that's about an inch widespread with more than this over some areas, the data I use is indicating central South and the SE seeing some of the highest totals,
NAE 0000-0600hrs
this shows the heavy rain moving in overnight and by morning really set in,
0300-0900hrs, very much alot of rain shown here..
0900-1500hrs,
Large totals being collected over the western side of Scotland too, as being indicated here, other models really debating position of the largest rainfall totals today, so most places at risk but it's S-UK and W-Scotland on NAE here that is indicating where the biggest deluges today could be.
I have done the map and highlighted these areas as orange, the yellow being the risk zone for heavy rain/totals today.
Some areas of Wales and NW England have large totals being indicated here, my maps are made
combining model data using overlays, for example a few ppn models rather then a solo are showing quite a lot of rain for parts of the south increasing the chances of the event happening? so I combine the chances/risk of the event taking place this way and so = probability% +risk of flooding due to saturated ground/drainage problems = risk.. I'm working on the maps!
I also if possible update the maps as radar and other data comes in, it could be that other areas are highlighted orange!
I like to put the yellow for 12mm+ accumulated rain/ppn during saturated ground
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Took this pic of an anvil this evening, then did some work on it for monochrome/noise effect:
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Lightning radar:
Wind gusts:
Images are of the storm today around from around 12:30/12:45 this deep rumbling thunderstorm moved over Stanwell and Heathrow! torrential rain the very squally gusts and hail-this was in the mix with the rain and small, not settled though like some areas north of here that got white out seen some amazing pics of the hail! for the thunder at least 5 maybe 7/8 deep heavy booming flat shakers, 2 were very bright lightning, one was a shocking thunderbolt. was dusk at lunch time. It's January, quite a surprise today and exciting too.
Here is a radar snap of these Tstorms:
Data from the Metoffice
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Today (Friday) another storm system sweeping in from the Atlantic, quite a concern and it's likely that this big system brings precipitation. Large amounts of rain falling onto extremely saturated ground today has no where to go, nothing can absorb this water anymore.
The rainfall over parts of Scotland particularly the western side could amount to over 2 inches or 50mm+ I have highlighted this as orange on my rain alert map below. all areas at risk from heavy showers/rain but the areas within the yellow shaded zone are where we are likely to see the amounts of rainfall over 12mm and possibly 25mm (keep watch of forecasts for any snow in north..)
This is rainfall amounts.
(Image - removed previous map)
The rain especially across the south coming as bands of heavy/intense downpours, perhaps thundery too. The look ahead into the weekend yet more heavy rain, really quite incredible with what has been and what could turn up with the rains and winds over the days ahead, and not only this we have the floods from tidal waters as the deep low pressure+wind+high tides combine to push up big waves around coastlines, there is a thread on this in this section.
Note that Gale to Severe Gale force winds developing today over many areas with this storm.
**update**
Band of very heavy rain moving across southern England now heading into the SE and EA soon, some very heavy bursts from this feature. Updated map, after latest NAE ppn data. Note did not have access to some data earlier as per late update to include areas with dotted lines to show this update.
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i will do this the best i can for now
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html
rain enroute from midnight on some heavier bursts but not persistant
should clear by morning rush hour
heres the current satellite pic
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_ir.html
i think we can all see the problem there
winds picking up overnight
tomorrow
winds by lunchtime around 30-40 mph gusts
maybe a shade higher south coastal regions and far south east
looks dry at present there
however
showers will rattle in quickly throughout the day
thankfully only heavy bursts not persistant
temps around 10 degrees
around 6pm
winds may get a slightly higher rate 40-50mph and still showers rattling in
south westerly
at present rainfall and wind should not be big issue here
water levels are a different issue
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tomorrow night
it looks like winds will veer more true south westerly
but will weaken down overnight
rainfall
looks like showers rather than heavy rain
at 7am
troughs to our south west driven in to set off some heavy rain and heavier the further south you are
temps
cold before rain arrives
then warming up to around 6-7 degrees
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saturday
gusty south west winds early
with heavy rain
by lunchtime winds veering more westerly and rain clearing by early afternoon
temps
6-8 degrees
feeling colder when the wind swings westerly
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saturday night
a real headache this one
low pressure incoming wrapped in 528 dam air
so
south westerly veering north easterly back to south westerly
this low is not showing on the ukmo or ecm so expect heavy showers overnight
temps
cold
a chance the north of the region may see something wintry but will quickly revert back to rain
temps cold before getting rain
then warmer when showers arrive except further north in the cooler air
wind not an issue
rainfall maybe if the low moves slowly
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sunday
looks to start dry
but heavy rain not far way from lunchtime on
*** potential to see some thunderstorms between mid pm to midnight ****
winds weak south westerly am
gaining strength pm to 40-50 mph
rain still noticeable and heavy but slowly receeding before lunchtime
winds still gusty 40-50 mph
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monday
although breezy not a real strong wind
rainfall at present looks to effect the far south although this may change
temps not cold
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heres mon night and tuesday
these are subject to change
mon
wet far south and still gusty but not ott
tuesday
more widespread rain but winds easing
cooling down tuesday night on
hope this helps
john
Great post John Pike always informative. Thanks for the time you spend (where possible) on such long posts!
The Sunday storm looks big! looks like something from the day after tomorrow movie!, anyone on to the accelerated clomate change theory yet!! .. no hose pipe ban this spring.. one thing though I expect one big springtime bloom! ah depends if the snows set in end of this month quite possibe were in for 2 solid months of a freeze, really scary thought for some I'd expect especially after these incredible amount of storms
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There is a band of heavy rain continuing to move from east to west over all areas this evening into the night, quite a lump of rainfall now affecting the SE mod-hvy bursts in there. There is more heavy downpours through Friday, some intense rain.
Are take a look at the data closely later and post up on this later (hopefully!)
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The current Environment Agency severe flood warning for Barmouth says:
"At Barmouth the tide level is expected to reach 3.92 metres above Ordnance Datum."
Does this means the max hight of tomorrow's am tide is going to be nearly 4 metres higher than normal?
Is that right, or does it mean something else?
Thanks...
I think so I can post some info on this:
All mapping created by the Ordnance Survey within the British Isles shows heights above mean sea level. Until 1921 the datum used to calculate these heights (known as the Old British Datum) was in the Victoria Docks, Liverpool, and was based on observations in March 1844. Since 1921 a new datum has been used (the New British Datum) which is based on the mean sea level at Newlyn Tidal Observatory in Cornwall, and is derived from measurements made between May 1915 and April 1921.Read more: http://www.answers.com/topic/ordnance-datum-1#ixzz2pHhbFq2c
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Stunning night lights and satellite, I can add to this and post a MetO image here of the developing storm:
Incredible how widespread the floods are and now a tidal threat very much a concern.
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Hi all would like a few views on my wind grid I have designed, the below image is a DEMO, I'm hoping it makes sense without to much explanation! the grid is in MPH.
Thanks.
Date/day possibly some info would be attached somewhere maybe on a side bar or on bottom of image)
(Actual grid to be used got alerts)
(Note image alignment would be better on finished project)
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Squally gusts and heavy downpour (showery type) here (next to Heathrow ap) moving from southwest it seems. A lot more of this overnight, be interesting for some tonight! especially as hail and thunder is possible.
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Further heavy downpours through today and into the night, see my map below indicating the highest risk areas from the heavy rainfall, some may be thundery and some showers could contain hail especially this evening and overnight:
Heavy Rainfall and Flooding - For - Wednesday 1 January 2014 - upto - 0300hrs Thur 2nd - ESS.pngThe orange zones cover southern England and Wales, parts of northern England particularly the northwest, and also into Scotland. Map based on 3 models data and latest radar.
(note the oranges are lighter on the map than other maps before but these are indicating just as severe as previous maps I have made, but trying to make things more clearer and easier to see the map outline)
The heavy showery conditions with hail and thunder also with further squally winds have really set in over the southern half of the UK, and are set to last for much of the night adding to further flood problems here, heavy rain may continue over Scotland tonight and some heavy showers or rain over other areas too. Thursday daytime looks like a break for a while, but won't be long as the next weather front sweeps in, are post one NAE charts to show this:
...
Convective / Storm Discussion - 22nd December 2013 - 2014 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
Rain rattled roof and thought I heard thunder earlier! eased now.
Just reading on Two site in their thunder and convection thread: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=12241&p=4 - some chat about the strength of winter lightning. ​I agree that the bolts could be more powerful in discharge strength, I think one thing is that lightning is not as common during winter (away from the sea) but the energy possibly builds up more and holds off from discharge for longer before the bolt of lightning then takes place, so a bigger perhaps more powerful bolt/strike, we could say several strikes in one bolt?