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ZONE 51
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Posts posted by ZONE 51
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Winter Storm Wednesday (today) affecting all areas, lasting into Thursday early hours for far north
Torrential rainfall and floods, damaging winds, and a snow risk for north -
Gales picking up through the day especially on Western and Southern coasts, and moving inland through the day especially evening time, and by early evening (possibly afternoon) severe and potentially damaging storm force winds/gusts of up to 80mph hitting West of Ireland (and possibly the southwest of Ireland too) the coastal areas really getting a hard pounding from the wind and waves, the severe gales/storm force winds sweeping into northern Ireland, and later in afternoon into evening gales picking up to severe gales into the southwest and southern England coastal, and West Wales hitting 60-70mph, inland gusts up to 55mph. severe gales through channel starting in the West Channel moving east through the evening , severe gales up the Irish sea, to the north channel, and gales affecting East coast could become severe later in the evening but these are mostly indicated to affect over the North-sea. Gales likely to affect England and Wales through the evening.
Evening / late evening storm force winds battering West Scotland possibly damaging winds, and high waves causing problems here. into the evening and into the night period the storm moving over Scotland with the winds affecting west and north of Scotland the most severe, these winds hitting Shetland/northern Isles too.Have done a map to show areas indicated most at risk.Everywhere is at risk from gales or severe gales through today and tonight
I'm going to put the rainfall charts in the" Heavy rain watch part II" thread you can find in this section. Such a busy week of weather and so much to put in forecast but have to draw a line somewhere!!ESS-
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Nice mobile app too!
Yeah! and this one here although used before this is good - http://www.oceanweather.com/data/
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And this one - http://www.windfinder.com/weather-maps/forecast#5/54.317/-2.351 - that's all the links for now
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http://www.sailflow.com/ - enjoy exploring this one - - bookmarked!!
Click on map where you want to view - also has data for forecasting
(when map comes on you want there is wind arrows, zoom in by mouse/other and can click on an arrow and a graph comes up-click more details for bigger image, get some good data with graph of wind history)
Here is an example:
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NAE-Upper temps and dewpoints:
^^last one GFS
To show you the warmer sector over SW. Certainly going to be some very active precipitation and convective squalls.
(LOOK AT FAX TO SEE THE FRONTS HERE)
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This was today in Epsom Surrey.....
A tree crashed down and blocked half of a road in Epsom leading to congestion this afternoon. -
The 12z run shows a normal run-of-the-mill winter storm for tomorrow night. A few days ago it showed far worse. So, I'm not yet buying that the next 24-26hrs is going to be stormy. Of course, this may change in the next few runs but it's close enough now.
Meanwhile, Xmas time looks far more stormy .
Not going to feel that way for some.. especially in the south where the 50 - 70MPH gusts are likely to be feeling severe, not used to much higher than 50mph round these areas you know! Still a significant and potentially damaging storm this, torrential rain fall and the severe gales(storm force north) combined, and high seas battering shore lines quite a concern too.
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Just posting some mixed locations so you can look at the general weather forecast, simply put a STORMY week/wkend, and affecting all areas at some point and continuing next week :
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Heathrow
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Cambridge
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Folkestone
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Swansea
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Limerick
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Flintshire
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Rhyl
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Ballycastle
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Portree
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/workington
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/penzance
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Weymouth
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/bridlington
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Newcastle
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/basingstoke
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Rum
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Aberdeen
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Lerwick
-Blizzards indicated for Lerwick next week
(data - XCWEATHER)
Time Zone: GMT (UTC+0) Forecast Run GFS: Mon 18Z
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Funny as I was just thinking the same as you, in the past it's been every minute or so with people writing something, I keep thinking it must be dinner time and people will be around later but still not a lot is going on here.
The threads on a particular weather event usually get very busy (or more interest is you like) nearer to the time of event, and it's at the busiest when snow is on the way
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Great posts. and after the the storms be prepared for a Siberian mega blast... although taking time to set up.
(enough confidence in it to mention it now)
Amazing amount of action swinging in from the Atlantic, quite a concern really, only movies have so many big storms following each other!!!!
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Another but much small feature looks interesting for tonight heading into West and Northern Ireland, I'm going to show you this on the NAE 18z 500/1000 Thickness to show the upper temperature differences to the northwest and to the southeast of this feature:
Before this though a large very deep low pressure (storm system) is heading towards the West coast of Scotland, seen here on GFS 18z surface pressure:
SUNDAY (today)
This storm is likely to be affecting the following areas through today with severe gales and risk of storm force winds:
Western and the North of Scotland and the Northern Isles - severest wind of storm force.
Western and Northern Ireland - potential for severe gale force wind.
The strongest winds through coastal zones in the west and north.
Some damaging gusts could occur.
For all other areas over northern and western UK gale force winds are likely, very windy again in the south and east too through today.
Below is a map I have drawn up, the areas north of the orange line or within this zone seeing the strongest winds of severe gales / storm force. Areas within the yellow zones a lower risk of severe gales. All areas not in the lines zones a very windy day (near gale-gale)
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Not much I can add to the brilliant information on this thread but have done a wind map for you to admire ... or not..
TODAY- (and into the night time period)
Strong and potentially the most damaging winds affecting Northwest and West Scotland, Northern Scotland and the Northern Isles on Saturday (today), other areas likely to get severe gales are West and Northern Ireland and up the Irish Sea affecting coasts here, I think this could be affecting Wales also. For many other areas gales could become a problem even very windy in the SE / South and East where the edge of the storm could be felt mildly compared to Northern UK...
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Just wondering how you make those GIFs very impressive
Don't know what one NW uses (obviously a good one!) but I use this one for doing animated charts. can change size of whole animation for web, speed of animation and even each frame, can also freeze frames.
www.photoscape.org
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Wondering how the storms edge could affect the SE UK because track can change make a difference here.
MO are saying strong winds for southeast:
Saturday:
A dry, bright, chilly start. Continuing dry with bright spells, but increasing cloud through the day will limit the brightness later. Winds increasing from the southwest, becoming noticeably breezy later. Maximum Temperature 11 °C.
Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:
Sunday and Monday, cloudy with outbreaks of rain, some heavy, accompanied by strong winds at times. Tuesday, drier and brighter, with winds moderating for a time.
Issued at: 0400 on Fri 13 Dec 2013
(Text just updated)
Northern UK storm warning-Go to the warnings page here:
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Images for the above post (editor is not letting me paste directly for some reason?)
Could turn out one of the most stormy months on record
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Just read through the In Depth winter forecast.
Excellent forecast as always by Netweather and I enjoyed reading it. Very informative and well explained.
As I do If you like seasonal weather, cold and snow, then this could be the winter for you.
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Yeah and alot of moaning on this, must be lack of ppn but then at least nice frost and cold air still, eventually cold builds up in the ground.. can only be good for future propects.. if Atlantic don't take over the stage! which im not expecting it to. Sleet and snow on the hills later and overnight for these zones, think snow settling on downs for example if hvyhttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0heres the 850 temp charts from ecm tonightthe cooler air stays with us for the whole runmaybe nothing in the snow sense but pretty cold herealthough fi is probably around 5 days time
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Not much in here on tonights snow potential then?? could have snow into the SE later heading down from northern England where snow is likely this eve/tonight, and if heavy then some disruption most likely for the higher ground due to falling/lying snowfall, 200m+ for snow risk perhaps lowering elevation later for risk later as colder air sweeps down from north. Low level snow risk more likely later tonight then this eve.
Earlier today had very heavy rain and hail, sure heard thunder too. Had sleety shws this eve, certaintly feels much colder now!
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If I look over a garden fence lookin ahead at rows of fences into the distance from other gardens I might spot some one sitting on one..but I could also miss something right in front of me, under my nose.. I don't see much model output discussion on 24hr time frame, could be some surprises with this cold spell...fact is its not severe away from north high ground but its really only just started? things can change as we move ahead the models change every run so who knows!
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Increasing Snow Risk into Central/SE UK tomorrow(wednesday) late aftn/eve. zone from Cheshire+Staffs to Sussex, higher ground: Warwick+Bucks, Oxford, Berkshire, Surrey, north/west London, and down to Gatwick area. North downs and possibly South Down hills, perhaps wider snow zone into London east, Beds+Herts. Very fine line and likely hill snow 200m+ also depending on ppn intensity. Risk of sleet perhaps wet snow low level in places, this more likely north and west of London. A light covering if the snow does happen(hills)
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Why so much change in the models? Like tryin to get one to pose to get that perfect picture of an interesting cold wintry spell..yet keeps changing and just can't make up there mind.. just shows the cold block not quite there yet its just not, but its a start!
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Don't forget we not all on a northern hill, if you are then expect full blown snowfall in places, the higher hills in and around London (Chiltens, downs..) i'd expect snow to fall but low ground be difficult to settle but I think be some snow falling at least on low ground south, even in London, next wk
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No but it be snowslinging match next wk..Before it develops into one, let's nip it in the bud - this is not the time or place for another north -v- south mudslinging match.
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I'm sure many would agree too. but there are many posts that contain negative thoughts towards the wintry cold spell and it is snow and is a fine line of wet sleet(that's the mostly rain stuff!)or wet snow to low ground especially south. I would say Scotland could have disruptive snow and higher areas south watch out!edit..just changed would to could!Exactly.
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I do enjoy the mixed posts! Tell me this.. who can predict at1800 hours Sunday 17th that a heavy sleet shower on Tuesday would - A: be turning more prolonged and heavy turning air colder..
-B: turning to snow.
??
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I would say it is quite spot on in their article, I don't think their over doing it with what they say because if we look at the facts we can see why it could evolve. since 2008 winter has become in a pattern of blocking and with this Arctic and Siberian cold blasts so a higher probability of the same set-up for winter 2013/14. If we look at the prospects of what synoptics there could be this winter then things make more sense rather then thinking the story is overdone, high precipitation and colder than average temperatures means higher snowfall then average, deep cold build up Atlantic weather systems interacting with cold..more snow.
And of course long range model data and other signals indicates the possible freeze this winter(even this Autumn..)
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The Winter 2013/14 ramping thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
Can't find the cold spell thread?? not a ramp being real have you seen the charts look!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This Thursday! look at the lines and numbers, still low pressure+cold air sweeping in behind the storm= you guessed it!