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ZONE 51
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Posts posted by ZONE 51
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When?
You mean this mornings risk we had?
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Take a look at the lifted index charts for Thursday... I posted some just now in the convective thread, yellow and a splodge of orange for our regions... at midnight in Oct!!! check out the dew points and temps for night-time.
So what is possible is some summer type thundery action for us later tomorrow, changes of times can be but risk is a large window something like 12 - 15 hrs!
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Potential widespread UK very wet weather Thursday into Friday charts are for tomorrow and a few hours into early Friday , risk of heavy thunderstorms southern England perhaps Wales, risk highest SE England I think, flooding problems likely in places - data GFS 00z) latest update:
Theta-E 850 hpa (Equiv Pot T)^^^ 1200/1800hrs (note the 50 red lined area)
Theta-W 850(wet bulb pot T)^^^ 1200/1800hrs (note the 16-18C purple lined area)
Convection cloud cover and souring index ^^^ 1200hrs (note the green zone lined area)
Cape ^^^ 1500hrs (note imported thunderstorm risk) look at the lifted index, instability/increasingly humid warm layer)
(The next lifted index chart is for night-time!!!)
Lifted Index ^^^ 1200hrs >> 0000hrs)
Thickness 850/1000hpa ^^^ 0000hrs - warm humid layer
Wind 10m Kts(surface wind) ^^^ 1800hrs S/SE flow
Wind 850 (kts) ^^^ 2100hrs S/SW
Increasing dew points to late night!! (see next chart)
Dew points Temp 2m ^^^ 16-17C increasingly to late eve/night
Surface Temps 2m ^^^ up to 17C (18-20C day-time possible) late eve into night-time warm and humid.
ES.
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Didn't experience much activity here (west London) had heavy line of rain. Some very active downpours were across western zones though-this line of intense cells of rain is to the east and north of London now. The eastern zone of this rain over towards EA for example, has become very much heavier and more organized over the last hour.
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Interesting. Must say that any added hurricanes or storms would change things and that in turn would change the short-medium models outlook if they develop in the Atlantic, but not as much affecting the long-range data.
(Images are 2012)
Image here one in my collection( I keep some) this is GFS indicating cold and snow with a North sea low dragging down cold winds, it is a 500/1000hpa upper temperature chart, it is likely we will see set-ups like this being chased this winter on the models, we could have them materialize, they could change, this image shows short-term data and can of course change with small-scale developments.
That was at +144 now look at the +96 hr chart see how things change!
Last year if I remember correctly CFS data was indicating Arctic air quite frequently through late winter, I was posting the 'best cfs cold charts' a month or two before the dates the cold spells were meant to happen as shown on CFS charts, those charts evaporated to milder air-masses, but nearer the time these cold spells did show once again on the CFS charts.
So why were the cold charts / data playing hide and seek? because the medium range data changed the data fed into the long-range computer models I would think the reason. It's kind of thinned out as further ahead we look, the changes on the SR models are most likely to actually happen and the changes on the LR models to what we read one day and the next are just as less likely happen as to actually materialize.
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Have to show this, thread was created on 1st Sept 2013...
109,934 views - at the time of my post(about)
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Lotto numbers for big freezes?
19 47 19 63 20 10Lotto numbers 25, 12, 20. 13 ,20. 14 and the bonus is 12 inches of snow...
Not the best at history on big freezes so if you want to know the EURO numbers ask someone else...
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......... but for southeastern and eastern parts, as increased low-level moisture advects from Iberia/Biscay. Potentially a short period of torrential rainfall if nothing else. A little way out though.
Not even a risk of thunder? wouldn't it be amazing to get an MCS drift up on a humid mid-level plume this time of the year!!
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Good point AVFC it is the weather and we cannot make a difference with our mood changes! It will do what it does and that's that.
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What would the average day and night temperature need to be for 3 months to be a record mild winter? I don't want to place figures I prefer to ask those in the know and for interest of other readers. OK are take a go, 12-14C day-time, 9C or higher night-time, we could allow some cooler / colder days and nights though, but for extreme I'd imagine no cold air and no frost at all for the whole winter?
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You'd get bored of the cold and snow if it was like that every winter, atleast if it were the mildest Winter on record, everyone would be even more excited for the next winter.
Had a very warm and dry summer, could not do with a mild boring winter, cold and snow brings mayhem but also good business for some, if there was not cold a lot would lose money, especially clothes sales I think, winter clothes needs for extras like bigger coats, gloves, boots and hats all add to more sales then summer wear. Other sales would of course benefit from a mild winter generally.
For the mildest winter on record to materialize that would be interesting, but boring totally boring, imagine every day 14C maybe up to 18C day-time temps(would feel nice though) and nights no lower then maybe 10 degrees C, rain and gales inbetween would make things more interesting, there would be sunny spells too but also probably days of cloud sheets as plain as one grey but not 50 shades...
I prefer to have snow / cold spells mixed in with very mild periods.
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The Netweather site looks great, very bright fresh looking, clear text, and colorful imagery / graphics, looks stunning! I use the site mostly on computer, the new home page looks nice some nice designs on the site, I especially like the weather alert buttons on the home page looks like real LED lights! and the switch effect to when there is a warning (on) or it is at (off) no alert, this looks cool. Fast loading site and with many nice options too, the text editor for posting is great and a lot of options there too.
On the mobile, and it's a small fairly old phone but it has a nice LCD screen, works great on there and looks nice, when I load the site it goes to the mobile version but I can set it to full version with the option at the bottom of the page on the forum if I want. The phone cannot load radar usually and for the NetW free one it shows the radar but not map underlay, phone won't load Google/ Bing maps, so for the same reason I think, this is usual for the phone I have cannot upload or download on it anything from the web either! I can load the old MetO type radar images though and zoom.
I have been for a few months been looking at getting a more modern phone for the internet!
I can load the model data images on the phone on the GFS viewer:
(uploaded image not anywhere as clear as actual viewing on phone)
My most usage on the site is from computers, for the mobile radar probs really that's not a problem I read the forums and know what's coming!! but I can get the MetO old radar on.
All in all great site and nice design.
ES.
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Great SH! be good to see the photos. mine were around 715pm but the cloud built up before that, normally I would have been in Stanwell think 20miles north from where took pics, but I probably would have had the view from here too!
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Some of my own photos taken on the day of 8th September 2013 (Sunday)
That day was a lot of showers and storms around the country, but across Surrey was these amazing evening cumulonimbus towers, these pics were taken looking north from Surrey.
Some mammamatus cloud was dropping underneath at lower layers mostly.
(Note-level edit on some images not all this to enhance detail) Anyway enjoy the pics and look forward to some cold uppers and convective activity in the weeks ahead!
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Anyone not got this link to this lightning detector, I have provided it for you, best check every 15 mins if your radar watching this stuff, updates every min, has a wider out-zoom button..(click Europe map)
http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&subpage_0=12
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You know when we make a cake and then it is tested the mix sometimes not quite right? the consistency not there, maybe some extra sugar or something need to add? well right now it is just like that out there across the south especially but the extra ingredients are jsut to be added and the mix just right from the early hours.. the cake will be made..(storm cake!)
So what am I on about here with this strange stuff? first of all I am in pain with my back feel awful so cannot be normal tonight! secondly what I mean is the interactions with the correct ingredients for thunderstorms come together(mixed) later and through Saturday.
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http://www.estofex.org/ - here is the link to the above forecast.
SE - Also we could develop some lightning and thunder later tonight as a disturbance enhances showers, these could become heavy and thundery.
A look ahead (UK) ,all I can say is potentially thundery..
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I like the Netweather Logo one of my favs, I have done an animation blended with the logo ,this for fun, is this OK that I used the logo for this?
Sorry if I done wrong using the logo. can be deleted.
(it has only been shared here on NW no where else)
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Had a fantastic storm around midnight was in bthrm missed the start! it was the best night storm so far, strong gusts torrential rain, fast moving clouds, inbetween star skies. Really is an amazing summer, this is like days and nights of the 80s and 90s
I posted this 3rd Aug
That was an amazing storm alot of excitment on here that night!
The warning signs in the sky were there a a day or two before the storms developed, these were (some mixed with other) Altocumulus Floccus and Cas..
I did not get chance to upload the pics as was on mobile so here they are:
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Some nice cumulonimbus built up today quite a tower lots of layered bubbles earlier.
Been working on a new idea for a convective warning map, here is a demo of the map, these will be experimented with next week, I might consider using the same maps for winter snow for example, I wanted to create a simple easy to understand alert map, below is the demo map and a color key guide. I would appreciate your thoughts on the idea.
Thanks.
(Demo alert map not a forecast)
Convective warning system - ESS
Level 4 - Red Alert = Extreme and Violent Thunderstorms.
Level 3 - Orange Alert = Severe Thunderstorms.
Level 2 - Yellow Alert = Thunderstorms.
Level 1 - Green Alert = Heavy showers/Thunder.
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Anything about?
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Any headed towards London? Amazing bright blue in the storm earlier.
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Had a fantastic storm around midnight was in bthrm missed the start! it was the best night storm so far, strong gusts torrential rain, fast moving clouds, inbetween star skies. Really is an amazing summer, this is like days and nights of the 80s and 90s.
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I think it overnight some surprises for the south/se. NAE indicates some activity over the SE later tonight. Cold front moving from west after a very hot day. of course need things to mix correctly for a good cake don't we! I look at the FAX charts looking interesting for next week with a return of the plume perhaps.
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Lots of continuous Altocumulus cas and floccus through today nice pictures might upload later/tmw, this is a sign of increasingly humid unstable mid layer. Would imagine some active electrical maybe dry elevated thunderstorms(overnight) and storms within the next 1-2 days. If the sunset displays mid level signs this eve like today with increasing size I'd see a more confident risk of the possiblity of elevated storms moving into the south overnight.
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So hot, and the hottest day of the year in my area! Lots of Altocumulus floccus and cas cloud - sign of thunderstorms.
Convective / Storm Discussion - 8th September onwards 2013
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
Very interesting period of weather coming up (already started for some) feels like August when we get the thundery plumes, well it is the same and quite impressive for October! and would be just as exciting any other time! Many storm forecasts out track back up the page and previous for lots of information / storm forecasts.