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ZONE 51
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Posts posted by ZONE 51
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Hastings to Dover coast thundery showers/storms already getting going
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Really crap editing dont have fireworks on this computer..
But comparing the size of this storm to say Ireland...
Hey that was good editing had a go myself as the thunderbeast has now grown bigger! so here is an image comparing it's size to the UK and Ireland!. oh mine is such a smooth edit needed to put big words on the title
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Might not need to go to France after all as the storm that come over here could also be severe
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If that MCS had a hole in the center I'd think it was a hurricane
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Looking back on the detectors appears some lightning activity was just inland from the south coast over Kent around 215 hrs although nothing (apart from light ppn)inland on ppn radar over that area around that time.
The satellite shows some cloud over the area and light isolated ppn (showers) must have been isolated elevated cells.
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Here it is, I have circle the area of the Channel storm at a stage of active lightning around midnight(going by the detectors), I have placed an arrow pointing to the intense cell.
Met Office radar.
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NPAS-Redhill - capture incredible night lightning:
https://twitter.com/NPAS_Redhill/status/360907131135877120/photo/1
(was tonight going by the tweets)
Looks like the lightning is reflecting on the ocean there
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My views on the weekend storms.
As we know there is potential for a large scale thundery feature to affect the UK this weekend, there is a great deal of uncertainty with the track of this system, one option is for the main area of thundery rain or MCS to move up across Central Southern England and into the Midlands moving up from the continent, this is the most likely track at this stage that I see occurring, if this happens I expect more thunderstorms to still affect the SE and EA even if the main event misses these areas to the west. Another option is for the main storm to affect only the SE and EA and near the east coast, if this happens then the storm activity likely to be on the east side of the MCS/TRain, Also NAE is indicating some very heavy rain across Central South but incl parts of the SW.
I have done a map to show these tracks as an image. This is something that is rather different to your normal MCS set-up/track (what we are used to these days) I have great interest in this as many of you do, did we expect another thundery set-up after the lack of them over many summers? only just had one so this is amazing after all we have had hardly any night action up until recently!
(note this is not a forecast)
ESS
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Due to the heatwave the sea warmth would now changes things for Autumn, if August brings a prolonged heatwave and Sept/Oct has cold nights/land temperatures this would make thunderstorms over the Channel more active and more likely when the right conditions are there for them to form.
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I mentioned this possibility last night although I expected them to be Friday afternoon/evening.. but anyway here is something for us to wonder about.
... SE ENGLAND, EAST ANGLIA ...Through the morning hours the edge of the Western Europe moisture plume will graze these areas (most notably between 03z-11z). There is potential for a few elevated convective showers to form, with a very low probability of lightning (hence a marginal ISOL threat level here).As posted in the convective thread here is the link - http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/260
(That is for Friday early hrs/morning)
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There was a funnel cloud today http://www.thejournal.ie/tornado-kildare-1007910-Jul2013/
Image below:
(bnw conversion/contrast to show cloud/funnel structure)
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Severe downpour Stanwell now .. edit, slowed now was a very local more intense rain cell (few mins)
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Belting it down in Surrey, first rain I've seen in weeks. I can almost hear my parched lawn slurping it up
This is more prolonged then the rain from the edge of storms over the last few days! really flooding surface water now.
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Certainly is!!
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Local report - Heavy downpours (as experiencing now and as seen on radar) moving across Surrey and into the London area now and through the next hour or two (few maybe)
I am in Stanwell (next to Heathrow ap)
Heavy rain now it's quite prolonged. Not any T/L and No lightning seen on radar image.
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Heavy rain and cooing air here in Stanwell next to Heathrow AP, what a relief! the most heavy and prolonged rain for weeks!
Heading across the London area.
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Good to see cool nights doing so well
I think some might choose warm nights as to being outside after dark some like it warm especially if out late so I can understand their choice. I like very warm days and cool nights not only because indoors gets to hot where I am and other places I have lived in but because of the feel of the cool air after a very warm/hot day, 15C is fine at night not 21C! for summer time!
Thanks for all the votes so far everyone looks good on the NW results graph too! (nice design)
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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/
Could there be something sneaky tonight ?
Look at the babies face on the ad!! (right side of image) just happen to be there while I looked at radar after JP post was surprised as quite a lot of ppn heading our way with some intense convective cells there.
(that is the old radar John I always liked that one don't you use the new one? I use the whole new site, sometimes the old radar, but with the new one I like and can zoom into locations)
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Ooh, possible extra time and penalties!
Tom.
(was just a quick edit)
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(If you would like a nice n clear image of a football in the net then here it is below, found on web so not mine, use for personal use only)
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"A shower or two"
Forgot to ask when the app indicated a shower or two what weather did you get?
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My Accuweather add-on has just updated for Saturday night, and it says "Strong thunderstorms". Have never seen it say "strong" before (actually, I don't think I've ever seen it say "thunderstorms" before!), and I don't doubt it'll say something like "dry and clear" by tomorrow morning, but it's nice to see anyway.
There has been strong storms this week what was app saying then?
"A shower or two"
So I do expect something mega now then!
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Well maybe a bust after all for Ireland - last x disappears from blitzortung and I'll be off to bed - there is a white blob just appeared below the other blobs on Meteox satellite which might expand like the previous one... just one more update lol!
My curtains moved too earlier - maybe the samosas though
The thunderstorm over S-Ireland (as I posted sat and indicated earlier) it grew within a 15 min time zone, the recent storm action over the last few days have had this characteristic, it's single cells from showers home grown quite normal (although fast growing compared to usual 20-30mins)l but just saying that it's been noticable how fast the storms become active, how they have been on/off as they travel.
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At the moment i would go for just the southeast getting any thundery weather on Saturday, The forecast wants to keep it all east. Time will tell over the next few days but looking at all the conditions on Saturday night i would, at the moment go for rain in the Home Counties, London, East Anglia thunder more confined to the southeast, but stress early days!!!!!
I can't see to much reason to hold the MCS /Thundery rain back from sticking only to the far east side UK. The track after it develops would be of course still unknown exactly as these storms can become bigger than expected. (or not grow at all)
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painting a clipper affair that may briefly straddle SE England.Thought there's two options, 1 - SE and EA 2 - Central southern/Midlands ??
Option 3 - of a clipper was not mentioned. A - either be over the SE full on or B - further west.
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
Map coming soon and this jumble should be something less confusing!
(the dotted lines are ppn model data)