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ZONE 51
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Posts posted by ZONE 51
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This one went up in 30mins!!! this a loud one I can tell you, bit in distance but deep deep thunder
Not on MetO lightning yet went up so quick just need to get the next update. I saw the tops of this very high.
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BIG THUNDERSTORM SPARKING OFF LAST FEW MINUTES HEATHROW AP/STANWELL AREA
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Just had a heavy showers from Mid-level convection I think, these around SW London where they developed// edit thunder I'm sure Thunder!!!! just now!!
Yeah deep thunder Heathrow/Stanwell areas now storm developing around SW London now!!
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Big storm in north France heading up to Le Havre
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Just had a heavy shower, looked back on radar a bit up to now and it sprung up over these areas near SW London, still there! watched some mid level acc earlier these popped up from mid level instability I expect!
First rain for a very long time! can actually smell the rain, which normally only happens when dry for long time.
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Hi all as you may know or not know that we have thunderstorms moving to the top of the page but do not get me wrong the heatwave is very much becoming more severe as those storms develop, as last week we are very much in the heat and today it's storms that are cause for excitement or worry depending what you like, for sure we need and wildlife need the rainfall, though it looks like due to very dry hard ground the water would likely run-off fast and possible flooding might result.
So an interesting situation with the heatwave and what this could bring with the change, not expecting a total cool down but some relief from the heat eventually coming our way. Thunderstorms at night especially would export some cold air flows I'd think(downdrafts), I know we get winds blowing towards storms too. Be nice to get rains to cool it a bit! I don't want to say when it will be cool in the day as things change but the intense heat should start to fade away over the next several days but might bounce back at times.
Wow!! this is today(Monday) high humidity and big thunderstorms possible.
The temperature hitting 32-33C possible record breaking for some maybe 34/35C that is pushing it a bit but it can happen in this set-up as to why it's possible!
This evening and tonight more thunderstorms and imported big scale storms(MCS) overnight tonight look likely! Could (if it does) get one of the best lightning display for many years, I expect lightning to be very flashy really going to be interesting the next two day's.
After that it's hard to be sure what happens but possibly more tstorms.
ESS
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Amazing for over here
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Is it me or does this look like a tongue..(red line with 50 on top)
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Looks like some heavy downpours over Dorset(from the storm earlier) moving into Wiltshire going by radar, not any lightning with these at the moment.
Not any lightning on detector at moment anywhere.
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I would think the MCS many would see that moving on the horizon if not heading there way, night lightning can be seen great distances if clear ahead of the storm up to 150 Miles? , I would say at least a 30 mile distance for most storms inland.
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Flicking through the last few frames of the radar, it looks as though the thunderstorm down South seems to have lost some of its energy in regards to the intensity of the precipitation (nooooooo....). Not too sure whether it will regain any power, though. But at least their are further chances down the line.
Expect some increase in activity later.
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Lol
Well Estofex pretty much in agreement with my thoughts but obviously much much more detail, and I agree 100% with them, they are also seeing 3 Phases, with the Non Severe waning of Elevated Storms before Midday, then the Surface Based Convergence Zone Storms (Probably Most Severe) before another round of Clusters (MCS) Moves North Eastwards in the overnight (Mon to Tues)
To the poster that asked wether Lightning would be prolific, yes could be some very dangerous Lightning tomorrow.
Whens the best time to get some sleep then!!
Thanks for the forecasts I speak for many others.
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Been some mixed posts(earlier) on whether the storms are imported or else what.
The fact is they are imported from France.
The radar animation here I did shows these as imported.
(bit wobbly as screen snaps)
(radar images taken as screen images from the Met Office site)
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yep.....and the NMM 18z is out, and it's already way off the mark....lol......compare the current radar with the NMM 00z precip snapshot!
viewimage.pbx.pngAll models do though quite difficult for the models this situation.
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a bit of a lull in sferic detections over the past 20 mins, as storms are struggling to push northwards (this does tie in hi-res modeling).....that's not to say of course that further cells will erupt overnight as the theta-e plume continues to destabilize ......next NMM hi-res run out in the next 30 mins
Watching the IR sat the cloud expanding getting wider
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39mph gust picked up at Bournemouth AP 2300hrs
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A small intense cell just popped up east of the IOW (not electrical)
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Just been outside and the moon looks slightly orange, some low fast moving cloud has appeared in the last hour. Cant wait for tomorrow!!
Saying that I might add there was an orangey glow to the sunset this evening the first I've seen like that this heatwave. What this means is an increase of humidity (as is) this during hot weather can be a sign of storms as increasing humidity and instability take affect. The colour is a reflection of upper atmospheric particles/dust that's has collected due to the very very dry weather (up to now for some!) this can be more intense as a haze and not always brings storms. as far as I know the increase in humidity allows the dust/particles to show up like that.
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Recent Satellite image:
White cloud are where the downpours/thunderstorms are.
(Screen image from Met Office site)
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Anyone else a bit surprised that estofex hasn't issued any warnings?
I've been to busy..
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On the points you make you are probably correct, problem is if it doesn't clear by the time the sun comes out, we will not get the high temps as everybody has suggested, then our chances diminish badly for imported storms or home grown, last minute things like this can always cause dampers for heat lovers and storm lovers alike, and in winter snow lovers
I expect there to be enough daytime heat through tomorrow to activate storm creation. anything from 25C is enough for the storms. Not any less effect on what is expected Monday night either I don't expect. I can understand why you say this though.
Edited.
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st July 2013 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
Developed from a shower in 15 mins to a storm.. amazing!
note that's 0615am issued (ignore the 415 just where mouse was hovering on screen snap)
Link here -
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observations/#?tab=map&map=Lightning&zoom=9&locId=350928&lon=-0.18&lat=51.55&fcTime=1374426900