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ZONE 51
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Posts posted by ZONE 51
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This evening is likely to feel much more different as the hot and humid air moves into the SE UK, just showing these so you can see where the plume is. I expect large thunderstorms to develop over France this evening and head north it's these that I think would affect SE/EA and more west of southeast, more of the south.
as seen by the deeper oranges on the upper temps 850hpa.
The very warm humid(tropical)feeling air moving further north
850 temps, these are the upper temperatures.
GFS 00Z showing a blob right in Central south this eve, this must be a storm..
Lifted index for this eve, some unstable air over south UK, imports most likely plenty of energy to build storms is across the lake, these would keep going over the Channel. Plenty of heat and moisture now.
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Thunderstorms this eve/tonight over France as shown on the NAE image here (ppn)
I expect those thunderstorms to move north early Thurs.
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Amazing watching the storms explode on the satellite, something not seen so close to our shores for so long.
I have done an animation to show this, looks impressive! 230am to 530am at 15 mins a frame - this morning.
First image is the larger file best for computers the second image is smaller file size should be better on the phones.
If you can't get animations to run then see images below which are the frames.
(bit wobbly as taken screen images) note-the animation should play fast if not on first run then on second loop. also both GIF animation files are the same just larger and smaller size.
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Images below -
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Reason I set my alarm! (earlier than normal)
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Cold air thunderstorms aren't as exciting as warm air thunderstorms in my opinion.
Some of the most interesting skies come from colder upper air and surface heating
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Best to check back in a few hours? that's what I might do, I wouldn't watch a snail move all the way up the garden path but some of the way... early hours maybe there be some interest. If it doesn't do much then can we blame the plume? o: anyway the weekend although cooling plenty of convection troughs colder upper air?
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Things have got off to a difficult start, the next few days should get more active!
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Take a look at the satellite image here there is a cell nice and rounded heading up from France towards UK I have highlighted this.
It's not as high topped as those other storms seen as white bright circle shape and shadowed edges as seen on satellite but should expand, I don't expect Channel to stop this.
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Just seen the latest bbc forecast, alex deakin said showers moving up from france could get very lively and the thunder globe is out
Missed this one, when was he forecasting this for?
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NAE 18z early hours ppn (focusing on the south at this point)
GFS 18z early hrs
not much there!
OK now the UKMO ppn early hrs/early morning
It's up to you what one you choose..
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A look at tomorrow eve/night and overnight to Thrs ppn -
UKMO 12z
The UKMO model showing a quite an amount of precipitation across south this is the thunderstorms.
next is Thursday ppn
A lot of it and widespread across England and Wales.
NAE and GFS are indicating this potential for Thursday too. It is possible thunderstorms become widespread tomorrow eve/night and into Thursday.
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GFS 18z shows the dew points rising across the SE quarter UK, warmer 850s and high humidity.
I have circled the area heading toward the SE
Expecting T-storms to import/develop early hours SE.
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Things getting going in France on the storm front, watch this expand! (white/yellow is latest lightning)
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Latest radar looks as though might be anopop or something what do u think?
there is a rather strange shape to this it might be thundery
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Here is some mobile phone pics I took last year to cheer you all up!
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Hey CR, still a chance of change yet storms could yet get to your area this week the risk is there things change as have been nothing is set (apart from France is likely to get storms...now that really is set!)
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Through today we should get some heavy showers setting off across England, as dew points rise to around 17-18 possibly risk of 20C, surface temperatures rise up to a very warm and humid feeling 21-24C in places those showers turning heavy, there is a risk that thunderstorms spark of as unstable air is in place and a fair amount of CAPE especially to east/se side of England say a line south of the Humber I think.
It going to get humid with warm nights. Hot for parts of the south particularly in the SE/EA mid-week.
Upper temperatures at 850hpa up to 15-16C(maybe 17C) as the warm plume moves up into SE/EA tonight, I am expecting some active thunderstorms to affect the southeast quarter of the UK, maybe further west and north were have to wait and see what happens tonight! I'm only stating the high risk zones here.
Wednesday night I expect to be more widespread storms across south UK moving into northern areas.
(some heavy local downpours have set off now in Dorset and S/W Hampshire looking at radar)
ESS
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Today is I would say the first day of several interesting day's of weather. The storm risk eve/tonight much higher than last night.
The FAX charts are admirable! ( if you like thundery warm/hot weather )
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I advise to read what Nick F say's, his forecasts are something I enjoy reading as many of you do and gives me a lot more confidence on the storm risk when I see a storm forecast issued.
Just because Estofx don't get the beer cans open for you doesn't mean no storms where you are, a 15% is at least some lightning though as far as I know, I expect an update Tuesday from them..
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Interesting looking at the temperatures north and south sides of that thin thundery band. cooler north of line warmer humid south of the line
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What's those lights? (sky top right)
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I might not be able to update the new model data this morning.
Things to watch -
MCS thunderstorm now moving up from France possibly into parts of Sussex and Kent today.
Convective activity across the south heavy showers today.
Mid level cas/floccus signs indicating instability.
Heavy showers turning thundery/storms most likely east of south UK later today.
Imported thunderstorms south UK late eve/overnight. risk further north too although I am staying with south/se risk at this stage as things can change. nothing is certain for the south nothing is certain for the north but it could be that even north zones could end up with thunderstorms this week.
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The thunder lizard moves up Tuesday eve...
look at the shape!
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That MCS looks close to our shores.. but the high tops always hit first a long way ahead of the main storm!
South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 17th June 2013 onwards
in Regional
Posted · Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
That lot looks incredible watched back the satellite images of the growing storms over the lake, really thought they were going to stay electrical inland after getting over the channel! The "main event" tonight as TJ say's looking forward to that to! We now have the "tropical" plume arriving, it certainly will feel tropical today! we could do with a longer plume from far south pushing the storms all up into the north, it seems they are close but brushing the east side.. get the magnets out! lol won't need one tonight I can tell u!
Only my thoughts if they go east don't blame me! I need an electrical show its been 4 years this summer July/August.. although the 25th Dec was quite an incredible treat when an active storm turned up early morning was dark, but was sheet lightning.