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ZONE 51
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Posts posted by ZONE 51
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How is the Ipswich area looking. I cannot make head nor tail of the charts.
On Monday night you should be in an OK spot for at least viewing distant lightning, the unstable air and plume moving up across the south, I would expect some spectacular lightning displays for parts of the south especially southeast Monday night and early Tuesday, the middle cloud and high cloud showing with gaps in low cloud(shown on charts) across the south and over your area(Norwich&Ipswich) the low level cloud is clearer or not there so visible displays , this indicates to me that high based thunderstorms are possible. need to watch out for middle level cloud today!
Hi ESS. Just had a look at Weather On Line but doesn't look as though any storms are forecast. Ah, well...things may change later.
Thanks for your help hun.
They won't be.. yet. the situation is difficult for the models, this is my favorite set-up for night storms!
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Hi K, are take a look at the charts and read back on here but be a while before I post much on the the storms maybe not until the next updates.. I can nip over to weatheronline and take a quick look for Ipswich
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Thanks SC. Just a thought, I think it is possible that some active electrical storms could not so up on the usual ppn charts even show nothing(until the near hrs where they are shown as small patches or intense cells if heavy). sometimes not much ppn reaching the ground.
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Data GFS 00z.
The image below is for this evening, this shows the hot and humid moist plume over Spain moving through France and towards the UK, Thickness 850/1000hpa:
Surface temps hot over Spain and France today:
This is the hot air-mass heading our way arriving as warm potentially very warm air across the south more especially the SE on Monday, the hotter air not to far away by Tuesday with a very humid air for some across the south.
I wouldn't be showing this in a convective thread if there wasn't the risk of thunder, so let's take a look at that risk. Just before that though I want to show you the Thickness 850/1000hpa for Tuesday:
Here it shows the warm and humid air has arrived, the deeper oranges across the southeast indicating very warm air here.
Next is the lifted index over the next 3 days, the yellow is unstable air, the oranges and reds indicate very unstable air-higher risk of thunderstorms more energy available in the atmosphere to use to create them:
Sunday evening(today)
Not much showing inland.
The unstable air comes with the plume of moist warm air, depending on how the Atlantic low pressure moves and where-this pulling up this air-mass:
This chart shows that area of low pressure to our southwest this evening.
Next more lifted index charts.
Monday morning:
Unstable air over France getting near to our shores
Monday afternoon(next)
This is thundery air, arriving through Monday, especially Monday evening and night
Monday evening/night:
Thunderstorms over France moving towards south UK, these most likely for the southeast
Tuesday 0000hrs next:
Precipitation Monday morning into afternoon:
Wet into SW UK.
Taking a look at Monday evening potentially thundery rain into the south/se, clusters of thunderstorms perhaps an large scale storm..could there be an MCS? won't answer that now..
Next is into Monday night/early hours of Tuesday:
I'm going to leave it there now look forward to posts from other's on this potential.
ESS
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Do I get a film for the SLR for next week... bulb they call it.. open shutter for a minute or two and you might get one of those photos of lightning at night... this may shock the camera as it's not seen that before..
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monday
slightly higher uppers
and looks mainly dry
cloudcover may be an issue though
temps around 20 degrees
monday night
warmer uppers
and some precipitation around
could we see some overnight storms??
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Edited see link for JP's full post.
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JP I was thinking this too, I expect storms to move into our area next week, maybe the type where decent displays are visible lightning up the clouds, I would imagine elevated one's that keep going overnight and don't weaken over the channel, be better to get storm/clear gap type as are visible from long distance, I think a band of thundery rain too.
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Intense echos along that squall line north of London and into Essex. I wonder if there will be any reports of large hail?
I think it could intensify maybe turn more thundery?
Had the bottom edge of the line was very heavy here in Stanwell, large convective rain drops. sunny breaks now.
Looking interesting next week, if anyone that has viewed the Met Office Fax charts would know that the SE could get the edge of plume, the 564 dam line just scrapping up towards SE(Kent most likely storms), perhaps the thunderstorms arriving at dark, there is a triple point system shown on the charts, things could get very interesting!
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Look at the Met Office radar now for 1545(pm) (taken a screen copy as it would change if this is viewed later) Take a look at the radar here and Tony Gilbert's forecast on UKWW
It's even the same shape as the outline/box!
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Torrential downpour now here at Stanwell, next to Heathrow ap south side. large drops torrential
Just got a window snap of it..
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Torrential downpour now here at Stanwell, next to Heathrow ap south side. large drops torrential
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Very windy here next to Heathrow ap.
gusting around 40mph around the area.
Dark fast moving stormy looking clouds, would say Cumulonimbus and Nimbostratus.. I expect some enhanced gusts as these downpours breeze by/move in.
Bubbly cloud tops now visible in gaps., had some recent sunny breaks this helping lift up the clouds into bigger clouds!
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Scientists in the US say they have found a dramatic new electrical-discharge mechanism that could explain how thunderstorms can produce flashes of gamma radiation. Called "dark lightning", the effect is silent, invisible to the eye and a potential threat to aeroplane passengers – at least according to the researchers' models. This is because such lightning has the potential to produce intense terrestrial gamma-ray flashes (TGFs) and could deliver a radiation dose equal to a full-body X-ray-tomography (CT) scan to nearby air travellers.
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'Garden-variety thunderstorms'For a long time, no one could work out where TGFs were coming from. "It was logical to think that if we can see them from space, they must come from the top of the atmosphere," explains physicist and lightning expert Joseph Dwyer of the Florida Institute of Technology, who led this latest work. It turns out that was wrong: "We now know that they come from deep within the atmosphere, from garden-variety thunderstorms," he explains.
All types of thunderstorm, large or small, appear to produce TGFs, with an approximate frequency of one for every thousand bolts of conventional lightning. But until very recently, it was not at all clear how they were doing it. Now Dwyer and colleagues have come up with a physics-based model that offers an explanation and quantifies the potential threat that TGFs pose to aircraft, which routinely fly at similar altitudes.
I have taken a couple of quotes from the article from the following link -
http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2013/apr/17/dark-lightning-sheds-light-on-gamma-ray-mystery
I didn't know about this didn't see it, thanks PP , I must take a read on this subject it looks interesting.
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GFS 18z other not updated yet
1)
2)
Today unstable air, yellow area is the most unstable.
3)
CAPE shows that thunder a risk today.
4)Surface wind flows for midday.(larger image so can view closer)
Surface wind flows for midday(above)
5)UKMO 12z - low pressure
UKMO 12z
Low pressure today
Not looks closely so are leave it to other to say where storms could be today(or look back a page or two for recent model runs) Heavy showers and thunder likely, not sure exactly at this stage what develops later but could be some surprises in there.
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Yes need to keep watch on thunderstorms today I was focused on the thundery plume event would have done a post later for today but getting on with time, actually are just go and get some charts... So much interest in the weather at the moment!
230am radar from weather online
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Very gusty where I am next to Heathrow.
Next week very much interest on the plume low(as I call it from now on) pulling up potentially very unstable moist and thundery air-mass early next week, Theta-W-850s (wet bulb potential temperature) possibly up to 18C across the SE!
Monday evening GFS 18z
Monday evening 18z - Lifted Index - this chart shows unstable air into south UK, with severe thnuderstorms over on the near continent and I expect imported storms into the UK.
Monday evening GFS 12z(not loading update) - Rain/ppn - Thundery rain - torrential rain with potentially severe thunderstorms into the south.
into the night hours Mon..
Convective cloud cover and soaring index Mon evening GFS - 12z.
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I would expect later Monday thunderstorms to affect the south, the southeast at highest risk here.
ESS
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Very gusty conditions developing now with the rain. Also through Saturday very windy weather possible.
Here is a recent radar image from - http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/
Heavy band of rainfall moving in from the west now crossing the SE/EA over the next few hours.
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Through the afternoon winds becoming very gusty again, the image below shows the tight isobars across the SE particularly,
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Next week's image may come as a surprise to many..
that is quite something for this time the year!
The charts are NAE
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sorry ESS gusts do not last long. Indeed it is the rapid variation from mean to gust speed and back again that causes the damage, be it to trees or roofs. Rapid changes in pressure along with the variations in force per unit area if that makes sense?
The general mean speed I was meant to say I think to be more accurate. I was on about more of the feel of wind rather than anything technical.
I understand what you are explaining though.
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Must note the winds for today, an unusual development for June with an Atlantic feature creating a tight pressure gradient across Southern England with very very gusty strong and potentially damaging winds across South UK today (Thursday)
1) 13/6 - Surface pressure UKMO 12z
Low pressure to the north high pressure to the south over France.
2) 13/6 Wind gust 10m Knots - GFS 18z
The orange area shown on this chart is where we can expect the very strong wind zone through Thursday(today)
Images 3 and 4) for 13/6 - Cloud cover NAE 18z these charts showing some thinning cloud with some cloud breaks and sunshine across South UK, not much rainfall showing across the South today(at this stage) from (south of a line) SW England -East Anglia, maybe showers.(grey area = thinner cloud)
NAE precipitation 18z - mostly dry across the South. Keep check on the convective thread.. as shown on ppn charts some activity(ppn)for Central/Northen areas maybe thunderstorms here.
South UK - potentially gales or severe gales, trees are in full leaf more so than a few weeks ago when we had some rough windy spells, 40-50mph generally maybe more in places.
From my experience in these situations the winds would be long continuous gusts.
Also watch out for possible very strong convective gusts further North in any convective showers or storms.
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Netweather and The Met Office have issued wind warnings.
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ESS
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Just read through interesting posts, thought i'd post this radar has an interesting shape..
still keeping check on things through this eve for northern areas..
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Was gong to remark it feels pleasantly (relatively) humid this evening with the sight of clouds pouring in from the south a fantastic change after weeks of cool dry northerlies/northeasterlies!!
MetO projecting mostly frontal activity, with some more intense spells amongst it.
I'm going to plump (for S Uk) for some embedded downpours with very sporadic occurrences of thunder and lightning (ie the majority will get no thunder at all). Further north, chances seem slightly better, but again largely frontal.
Will be interesting day/evening tomorrow of weeks of largely stagnant weather!
Yes it's quite an increase in humid/warm air mass compared to the previous evening. Interesting I noticed golden edge small sharp cumulus and what appeared to be Altocumulus castellanus cloud only tiny but in lines at sunset, this increase in warmer and humid upper air creating them. This is a sign of thunderstorms within 24-36hrs. It's a signal I look out for at sunset and also sunrise. An interesting day for weather for many today, precipitation GFS 18z:
Looking at the FAX and some model data, some widespread downpours and perhaps thunderstorms..
NAE 18z (above)
These are the 18z so I won't post anymore as plenty been posted for todays weather. Interested in the next update I shall be back later to take a look on here!
See below what Al-Cas looks like:
http://www.rmets.org/weather-and-climate/image-gallery/altocumulus-castellanus-sunset
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Not sure if can put this here, it's about green skies during severe weather(I have experienced green sky during a severe day storm in the past)
http://optics.kulgun.net/GreenClouds/
Jumping ahead Sunday/Monday - Warm thundery air-mass:
Charts Monday.
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Alot of incredible charts of many colors posted recently! CAPE..Lifted index..850s..
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ESS
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Oh I didnt catch it haha, My friend captured this one but I was with him when he got it.
But nah he didnt video it, he generally caught it on his Camera, basically he used his camera, but he has a Lightning trigger, and what he does is set it up on the top of his camera, and it goes off whenever Lightning strikes and most of the time it does capture the Lightning.
It is actually extremely accurate the trigger he uses, as sometimes it goes off ad we are like howwww did it do that when we havent seen anything, but then everytime aswell thunder rumbles away. So it is very accurate
.What make is it?
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Still looking interesting for next Thursday:
keep watch on the changes on the FAX charts. I see the warm moist plume over France/Spain moving north east could just gets things going over SE UK. Changes possible if not likely.
ESS
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(Could someone move to Thursday thread sorry! also could you take this part in brackets out thanks)
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Look at this massive amount of strikes..
You can see the IOW storms there as reported above.
(all the lightning on the map is over-layed strikes for the last hour, orange most recent.
Here is rainfall same time:
The satellite from the Met Office can be found here:
The cloud on the satellite is expanding quite fast over the channel taking the images back a few hours and up to a recent image.
The IOW storm looks as though it's tracking northwest from there.
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Met Office surface pressure +120
(Tue 1300hrs)Cold front moving east into west UK connected to a large scale low, followed by an interesting looking smaller low pressure system(not that the cold front isn't going to be interesting..) , a head of this it a small feature over north France could develop, perhaps something for the SE, it may get shifted to the east to fast, if that lot gets in then could be some flooding.
This from next Tuesday
Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 14th June 2013 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
If we take a look at this chart showing convective cloud cover look at the zone around Biscay/west France where we have storms right now(the chart is for midnight just gone)
then take a look at the 0045am satellite here from the Met Office
that round blob in the same place as shown on the above chart is thunderstorms.
now if I show you the convective cloud cover for this evening it shows that type of cloud across south UK
convective showers and thunderstorms it is likely indicating!