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ZONE 51
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Posts posted by ZONE 51
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Map below is for overnight tonight/Sunday.
The map is not indicating a risk of anything significant expected.
Snow showers blowing in from the North Sea into areas of Kent with East Kent most likely to get the snow showers, East Sussex, Essex, with East Essex and Suffolk most likely to get the snow showers.
Other parts of the SE/EA light snow flurries/showers although a heavier one is possible.
Most places being dry and very cold tonight and tomorrow, although a chance we could get some snow later on Sunday from the east.
I'm not expecting anymore then a dusting in places that do get snow showers. perhaps though East Kent clipper/streamer could provide 1-2cm.
ESS
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There is some FIZZLE on the radar...
Fizzle = dissipating precipitation. I made that word up not read it before so can add to the new words?
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Seeing jet black small clouds against an orange cloudy sky at the moment this usually indicates an activated sky.... or do i just have an over active imagination!
Had some mostly light snow shws around Friday on and off this around the Esher area Surrey.
At the moment some very light snow at times, windy and freezing.
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Found this link, lots of information on weather and how it works, quote below is some from the site, link is just below.
http://www.pilotfrie...eteo/fronts.htm
The Polar Vortex
The polar vortex is a persistent large-scale cyclonic circulation pattern in the middle and upper troposphere and the stratosphere, centred generally in the polar regions of each hemisphere. In the Arctic, the vortex is asymmetric and typically features a trough (an elongated area of low pressure) over eastern North America. It is important to note that the polar vortex is not a surface pattern. It tends to be well expressed at upper levels of the atmosphere (that is, above about five kilometres).
fronts
A front is defined as the transition zone between two air masses of different density. Fronts extend not only in the horizontal direction, but in the vertical as well. Therefore, when referring to the frontal surface (or frontal zone), we referring to both the horizontal and vertical components of the front.
A cold front is that part (or parts) of a frontal system along which cold air is advancing and is coloured blue on the weather map.
A warm front is that part (or parts) of a frontal system along which cold air is retreating and is coloured red on the weather map.
types of front
the warm front
A warm front is defined as the transition zone where a warm air mass is replacing a cold air mass. Warm fronts generally move from southwest to northeast and the air behind a warm front is warmer and more moist than the air ahead of it. When a warm front passes through, the air becomes noticeably warmer and more humid than it was before.
Symbolically, a warm front is represented by a solid line with semicircles pointing towards the colder air and in the direction of movement. On coloured weather maps, a warm front is drawn with a solid red line.
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John, keeping check on Sunday looking interesting! see the upper warm front on the FAX from the east, find this interesting.hi blackprince
all we can do is radar watch at mo
the trough is around tomorrow still so still going for snows showers pm
nice fax for sunday afternoon
see the trough go through between this time
i like this chart though
If anyone wants to know what that is read this:
or anything else about fronts/weather see link belowOn occasion, an advancing warm front rides up over a pool or layer of cold air trapped on the ground. A station on the ground does not experience a change of air mass because the front passes overhead. This is known as an upper warm front.Sometimes, the surface of the cold air that is retreating ahead of an advancing warm front is almost flat for some distance ahead of the surface front and then steepens abruptly. The line along which the surface of the retreating cold air steepens sharply is also called an upper warm front.
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I have made a snow risk map up, although not as much is on radar as i expected at the moment, the map is for all of Saturday and i am expecting snow showers around throughout. The amounts estimated using the models are local isolated amounts, it's difficult to say where would get what but can be estimated to a reasonable level. 1mm shown on a precipitation/rain chart = approx 1cm snow - depending on air temps/dew points to what size flakes fall can make a difference to what amounts settle.
Most places seeing light snow showers not amounting to anything, scattered amounts of a dusting/sprinkle, with some places in Kent for example seeing most snow.
ESS
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Could do! then sucked up the Thames towards London. I expect this situation to continue with light snow around through Friday, maybe some heavier patches, then late Friday(today)and into early Saturday thats when things intensify and areas of Kent especially at risk of heavy snowfall. Snow becoming more widespread into the weekend!That streamer in suffolk is moving south, is that going to get to the thames?
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Local Isolated/scattered accumulations overnight and morning 1cm possible, light dusting or sprinkle more likely though.
Later Friday more snow showers in places+wkend
Saturday night a possible snow trough sweeping down could bring a widespread snow band.
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Latest radar a screen grab from MetO
I've arrowed the direction of movement, my above post il repeat here to go with the radar image
Latest radar images, light snow showers moving west up the Thames towards London. light snow moving through west Sussex and light snow showers over east Kent moving inland from coast also running along South coast.Radar 1am.
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Latest radar images, light snow showers moving west up the Thames towards London. light snow moving through west Sussex and light snow showers over east Kent moving inland from coast also running along South coast.
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Not often does it snow on the south coast!The south coast seems to be fairing quite well at the moment according to radar ?
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3 more and it's a streamerCurrently outside source bar in Maidstone odd flake falling!
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What's next the ..Ice cube scandal.. "fresh snow found in ice cubes"
Ok just been reading some earlier posts, off to read some more to catch up!
edit..actually going to read the latest ones first can't wait!
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I say it's best to wait until later this evening/tonight and watch radar/sat/reports before deciding if it's on or not(tonights snow). With summer convection some times sharp showers are forecast and they either do or don't develop or just light showers, or the convection takes off and something bigger develops. In winter in this situation it's usually the night time hours when things get going, this is to do with surface/air cooling+sea temperatures/sea air temps..
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I might need to adjust box 3 on my map i done last night a little further west.(looking at the ppn models/winds)Looking through the models/fax charts with rather increasing excitement! The cold is now setting in from the east, everything snow from now on. I have map a small snow warning map for our area (approx), the map is correct on where the snow is expected to be and the risk level but i have upgraded in advance to the areas i expect the heavier snow to develop, this is based on my experience of these situations, so although at this stage a light covering is possible across Kent/Essex/parts of London/Surrey(east most likely/Sussex(east most likely)there is the risk that larger falls of snow do develop, this is most likely Thursday night and Friday. These snow showers moving in from the North sea. Some areas are in for a lot of persistent snow showers or streamers. What about a Thames Streamer? depending on the angle of the wind fields and how much convection gets going over the Estuary, ENE/E flow would bring these snow shws toward the west of the area, the Kent streamer most likely though.
The weekend i will let you know my thoughts nearer the time, all i can say now is 3 main snow events between now and Monday are possible.
Map below:
(very low file size map.)
ESS
I did mention the Thames snow streamer. NAE now indicating this, see image below, late tonight, the arrows i have added indicate the direction of the snow showers, and Friday looking interesting early hours and through the day!
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You have no chance, outside of Alaska, and a couple of towns in Siberia, Croydon is well known as being the snowiest place in the world
image editing by ESS
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Looking through the models/fax charts with rather increasing excitement! The cold is now setting in from the east, everything snow from now on. I have map a small snow warning map for our area (approx), the map is correct on where the snow is expected to be and the risk level but i have upgraded in advance to the areas i expect the heavier snow to develop, this is based on my experience of these situations, so although at this stage a light covering is possible across Kent/Essex/parts of London/Surrey(east most likely/Sussex(east most likely)there is the risk that larger falls of snow do develop, this is most likely Thursday night and Friday. These snow showers moving in from the North sea. Some areas are in for a lot of persistent snow showers or streamers. What about a Thames Streamer? depending on the angle of the wind fields and how much convection gets going over the Estuary, ENE/E flow would bring these snow shws toward the west of the area, the Kent streamer most likely though.
The weekend i will let you know my thoughts nearer the time, all i can say now is 3 main snow events between now and Monday are possible.
Map below:
(very low file size map.)
ESS
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It was frosty then the thick fog moved in, very cold and calm, cold front moving in from the east towards morning could get some sleety/snow pulses around higher ground maybe lower although not much to be concerned about! Increasing risk of snow through late week wkend, upgrades coming each day it seems although slowly and gently! other day was only light flurries expected, now it's light snow in the forecast, i think we could be looking at a situation where things crop up on the day, once we get the feed of potent cold air from the east as a stronger flow then moisture picked up and the sea surface/land temp differences would see building clouds although flat at first with lighter snow showers increasing into weekend to higher cloud allowing more space for growth of the cloud, so more convection more snow that is heavier. I expect a snow streamer to set up changing areas over the days, i won't say what day but Thursday i start with at this stage, we will just have to see what happens! Thames estuary convection likely to happen then the flow blowing these showers into Kent/Sussex and up towards London/Surrey even Hampshire by weekend.
EA included in the snow risk.
I will post my thoughts as we go through the days in this interesting and very cold developing situation!
ESS
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I might start some whispers later on our snow potential!
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Is that because it might make some say swear words?heres a proper x rated chart
over 18 only
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They might have found some of the meteor!
Fragments from a meteorite have been found in Russia's Urals region where it struck on Friday, injuring some 1,200 people, Russian scientists say.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-21494963
Another quote from above link:
Scientists have played down suggestions that there is any link between the event in the Urals and 2012 DA14, an asteroid which raced past the Earth later on Friday at a distance of just 27,700km (17,200 miles) - the closest ever for an object of that size.
What are others thoughts on whether the two events are connected?
My thoughts below on the risk..
Now depending on what way you look at this then it could be a greater concern that scientists say that the Urals meteor event was not/unlikely connected to the 2012 DA14 Asteroid. First thoughts were i imagined that DA14 pulled in the Chelyabinsk meteor, then the distance of the two seemed that this may not be possible, the gravitational field effect, magnetic fields..
What i now imagine is that the risk is greater for this to occur again with a higher probability then if it was related to the 2012 DA14 Asteroid.
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2004FU 162
Next Earth close approach Date 2013/03/17 Nominal distance 0.1239699 AU 18545633 km Risk Object is in risk list Object is not in priority list
18545633 km
The next NEO due 3/17/13 (news said 2029??next NEO)
The above is classed as a risk.
http://neo.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/search-for-objects?sum=1&des=2004FU162
Recent Asteroid passed at 27,700km comparing 2012DA14 to - 2004FU 162 to pass as close as - 18545633 km then it's not much to worry about then!
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I don't think it was any weapon like a small atomic missile, or in fact any weapon from Earth...
This is fascinating stuff to study, it's important some of the rock is found to know what material it's made of.
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I have done an animation of the GFS 18Z - SLP/ 500/1000hpa Thickness charts.
(You might need to play it once to play smoothly next time round and is best viewed on computer)
GFS 18Z RUN- FROM +21HRS TO+138HRS.TUESDAY19/2-SUNDAY24/2
Scandinavian high shifting quite a deep cold pool to UK.
Freezing easterly flow developing in South
UK snow showers East/South from Thursday.
Large Atlantic trough/low northwest Atlantic stalled against block to east.
High pressure Mid Atlantic.
Tue-Sunday increasingly cold days-very cold some areas- East/South/North coldest
Snow showers East-Southeast UK most at risk
Freezing nights-all areas at risk-frost/fog.
(Note-I will be deleting my animations a couple of weeks after upload to save space)
ESS
South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 22nd February 2013 20:00hrs>
in Regional
Posted · Edited by ElectricSnowStorm