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ZONE 51
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Posts posted by ZONE 51
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Welcome to the forum GC!
Or did I miss something??Exactly what I thought when heavy rain was hitting my roof a few hours ago
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I am sat down the seafront in a T-shirt there is breeze picking up but it is lovely. I am at the bracklesham.
Bracklesham bay is beautiful, I would recommend that place, incredible sunsets. .. and of course watching storms move along the channel.. and wonder if there move in..
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Sounds interesting ESS but when you say South uk which parts would you say could have a chance?
At the time of post I was thinking from IOW eastwards for imported thunderstorms and further west thundery showers early next week.., it needs to be there this weekend it's the plume of moist air knocking into the dry air we have now, a waiting game for sure but also frustrating. Would like to watch some night lightning flashing away up there CC(cloud to cloud)can be stunning this usually called ribbon lightning. Is streak lightning cloud to cloud or does it hit the ground is it thinner version of forked?? would be amazing to watch some forked lightning too.
(Note the above part of my post was talking about this weekends possible thunder events and not what we have had last night and this morning)
Looked out the window(next to Heathrow ap)and there is wet ground, thought I heard a downpour a few hours ago! also last night I thought I heard thunder although could have been the planes, but one was very deep and it alerted me to that fact because there not usually as deep sounding here at that hour, so I thought maybe it was thunder! I hadn't read any weather related stuff last night so didn't know anything was coming!
(did I miss something Thursday morning in the forecast when I made my previous post didn't read anything about this convection, although was mentioned a few days before)
Anyway out there right now some fantastic convection cloud well edged like anvil type and bubbles!
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I think South UK could get night thunderstorms this weekend..
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Absolutely, the very slightest of changes and it hits our shores. If it does come anywhere on the mainland I will be considering chasing, even if it means driving to Kent.
Coast, we would need the air-mass over France to be over us and then we could get homegrown storms just inland from the south coast much like what will happen in N.France I would have thought as well as elevated storms moving over from France.
Storms over France that try to trundle across the Channel in less favorable conditions will inevitably not make it.
The seas are cooler this year due to a cold winter/spring, how would this affect the thunderstorms? I can imagine that elevated thunderstorms in moist warm plumes float across the channel even if it's colder than normal, but I think some effect from the cold seas would make some difference. Also the Oct/Nov channel thunderstorm season would be affected, depending on land temperatures, so the cold seas really could make things different this Autumn.
For those that don't know -
(cold land /warm seas is what we usually have causing convection to develop over the sea during Autumn)
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Interesting developments possible...
More later in the week on this. Enjoy the warm-very warm weather. not that it won't last just saying!
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Here is the text forecast from MO
UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 May 2013 to Thursday 23 May 2013:Next week, generally unsettled and rather cool conditions will continue with a mix of cloud, locally heavy rain in places, but also some sunnier interludes. Most of the unsettled weather looks to be in the northwest of the UK, where showers may contain hail and thunder, with perhaps a little wintriness over the Highlands. The best of the drier, brighter weather should be in the east. Temperatures will generally be a little below normal, feeling cool in rain or showers. There is also a signal, with some uncertainty at this stage, that it will become increasingly unsettled in the south later next week and into the following week, with the risk of thundery rain moving up from the continent, whilst drier and brighter conditions develop in more northern areas.
UK Outlook for Friday 24 May 2013 to Friday 7 Jun 2013:Indications are that conditions are likely to remain unsettled through the start of the period, but could turn slightly more settled later. There will be rain and showers at times, with much of the UK likely to see around average rainfall amounts, however there will probably be a good deal of dry and bright weather as well, particularly later in the period. Temperatures are likely to remain cooler than average across the UK, although they should become closer to average later in the period. Given the time of year, with any prolonged sunshine it will feel pleasantly warm, especially away from the coasts.
Issued at: 1600 on Thu 9 May 2013
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=regionalForecast
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This is the stormiest I remember for this time of year, when wind pushes you back making it very difficult to move up the street in it then it's windy! not only that it it so rough across where i am(Staines-upon Thames)that buildings from inside are roaring, outside lampposts are humming! that's what 45-50mph gusts sound like,(some exposed gusts maybe more) blossom blowing of trees horizontal like pink snow..
Rain band heavy sweeping in, going to be more nasty when this hits and i have to wait for buses. I expect possibly increasing stronger gusts this evening. Also the gusts are very long. All very unusual for this time of year.
Read on Met office site thundery rain moving up from continent(later next week and following week)! sounds exciting!
warmer humid air masses clashing with cooler air mass creating thunderstorms, maybe were get some night lightning!
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Hi all, amazing weather, very warm hope it's a sign of a good summer! I expect a prolonged (heat) high pressure to develop(June) after a period of lows with rains and cool days..
Some rumbly(will it thunder cloud) lookin cloud moving up from the SW.. that's for tonight/next morning
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/satpics/latest_uk_ir.html
Posting as a reminder of the potential stormy weather for Southern UK Thursday
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings®ionName=se
Very strong southwesterly winds for the time of year are expected to extend eastwards across much of southern England, parts of the Midlands and much of Wales. Gusts of 50 mph are likely to develop fairly widely inland with gusts to 60 mph along coasts.
The public should be aware that some disruption to transport is possible along with possible damage to trees.
-MetOfficeNote this is a completely different story then it occurring during winter, the new leaf on trees and large amounts of heavy but nice blossom is added worry. I expect but hope not that tree damage is likely in anything 35mph+ .. 50mph gusts occuring widely.
NAE-surface pressure and 10m wind Thurs 1200hrs - 8-9 Bft scale = gale to severe gales.
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Link for anyone wanting professional infomation on freelance web designing.
ESS
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I am fascinated looking at these world lighting maps, the incredible amount of activity in some zones and much less in others is interesting. Might just search for an updated map at some point.
Data - 1995-2002/3
The area on earth with the highest lightning activity is located over the Democratic Republic of the Congo in Central Africa. This area has thunderstorms all year round as a result of moisture-laden air masses from the Atlantic Ocean encountering mountainsDuring the period 1995-2003 the highest lightning strikes over the UK is shown over Southern areas, shown on the map in greens and blue. The far north seeing the least.
The map below is a world lightning map yrs 1995-2002:
Details about the lightning flash map below:
The map above shows the average yearly counts of lightning flashes per square kilometer based on data collected by NASA satellites between 1995 and 2002. Places where less than 1 flash occurred (on average) each year are gray or light purple. The places with the largest number of lightning strikes are deep red. Much more lightning occurs over land than ocean because daily sunshine heats up the land surface faster than the ocean. The heated surface heats the air, and more hot air leads to stronger convection, thunderstorms, and lightning. The map also shows that more lightning occurs near the equator than near the poles. This pattern is also due to differences in heating. The equator is warmer than the poles, and convection, thunderstorms, and lightning are widespread across the tropics every day. Image by NASA.The next map is showing the annual flash rate for yrs 1995-2003 but mapped differently.
Annual flash rate world map:
Detail about this map are below:
World lightning map by NASA shows the geographic distribution of lightning. Areas of highest activity are shown in orange, red, brown, and black. Areas of low activity are white, gray, purple and blue.Lightning activity is lowest over the oceans and polar areas. It is highest over warm continental areas. The numbered scale represents lighting flashes per square kilometer per yearLink to the maps and the information presented in this thread and other information you may be interested in, there is a whole list down the left side on the link, from fossils to meteorites it's there!
http://geology.com/articles/lightning-map.shtml
ESS
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There have been a few threads on this subject and they all cause controversy because of the mention of 'ice age' in the title - I suppose we should blame the scientific community for having applied the term LIA to the period in the middle of the last millennium.
I propose the subject would be best addressed as 'regional cooling due to changing atmospheric circulations in the NH'
This is what i'm on about, were not talking about global. The affect of the possible little ice age is not affecting the whole World in any significant way. But it potentially is changing seasonal weather patterns and temperatures for some.
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It's already started, north UK doesn't get summers anymore..
Is it not noticeable the slow progress of change in seasonal temperature variation, not only are weather patterns shifting south, our seasons are moving along to different months.
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Depends on the blocking in the future and that will be more deterministic as solar activity to me can be like rolling the dice if you like. We are in a very complicated position currently.
I've shortened the post. I think cloud cover plays a significant roll in the solar effects, i had read that reflecting sunlight from cloud upwards and reflecting sunlight from snow cover effects the NAO(north Atlantic oscillation) affecting blocking which in turn alters the Jet stream, which in recent years has shifted south, making it colder here. The little ice age had such a significant plunge in temperatures that even summer stayed at or below 10C(50f) throughout! UK. I do have concern that this could be happening. but we would have still a hot feeling sunshine even if the upper temps are cold for summer and the surface temps are cold.
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Looking better with some of the tweeks that have been done..font much clearer too
much clearer yes.
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Look's great! bright and fresh layout, nice font to. I did like the layout before too,but this is a nice change. actually prefer this one now though!
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I am interested in the answer to this, but this is likely to take many more years to confirm but we are starting to see a pattern. I don't think we are about to enter a mini ige age (or maybe a zoned ice age as i call) but already have entered one. Something that i have especially taken note of although couldn't miss it is the fact the lack of imported thunderstorm activity/heat plumes into the UK, especially noticeable from SE areas up into northern England - where they would move up to from the SE every spring and summer, another fact that is quite remarkable is snow falling across areas that does not usually get snowfalls often but more milder zonal winters (noticeably southeast England..)the last 3-4 winters at least. Is there a connection with lack of imported thundery activity and plumes of hot moist air associated with them and increase in cold and snow in winter/spring? i think there is. once again particularly noticeable in S-UK. if this can be figured out, this connection if there is one, then the answer may be found to the cause. My theory is solar activity and the jet stream also arctic ice conditions, how all these interact with each other and there affects on the atmosphere and weather patterns is so far unknown, very complex stuff. What i do think is there has and is a south movement of our weather pattern keeping those plumes and T-storms across the continent(mostly) and increasing in colder air masses. What do i mean by a zoned ice age? this cooling significantly affecting northern Europe including west and eastern Europe the UK and Ireland, this means I do not think that all the world is cooling, but maybe on hold from warming, ..for now.
ESS.
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MOSTLY light snow, some moderate-hvy pulses early today mostly (after reports of hvy stuff)-Light snow showers continuing for maybe the next 12hours, more likely away from the far south. After that staying very cold with a risk of snow showers(light at this stage)from the north sea.
Later next week weather systems try to get in once again from the Atlantic, the below chart is the upper temps 850s hpa, the snow at this stage is north of London, but there is a chance track of this is more south. Chart is for Friday midnight.
I expect the low track and fronts to be a bit more south on the models through next week, bringing the snow risk into northern SouthEast zones
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230GMT radar image:
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Click hide or wait for a mod to remove the extra clones..
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Off to look at the ppn models, are let you know in a while.
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Snow now settling at Stanwell, on cars a dusting now and settling on grass and roofs.. moderate snow falling.Snowing moderate to heavy at Stanwell, i'm southside of Heathrow AP, visibility very low.
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Snowing moderate to heavy at Stanwell, i'm southside of Heathrow AP, visibility very low.
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A look ahead at Sunday's snow risk and is it going to snow on the south coast..
Here is upper temps 850s
Image 1 -
1200hrs
This shows the upper temps not quite cold enough for snow along the South coast and SW Hampshire.
But take a look at image 2
0000hrs(midnight tonight)The colder temps get to the South coast, but it depends on what precipitation there is around when the cold enough temperatures arrive on near and on the SCoast.
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Next is the dew points for 0600hrs Sunday
Just radar watching for snow by this time across all areas.
but will there be any around? taking alook at the ppn charts for Sunday
This is an easterly flow very cold and severe wind chill,
0600hrs Sunday - indications are light snow across the SE/EA.
next is NAE ppn snow/rain chart for 0000-0600hrs Sunday
This shows snow across most of EA/SE.
0600-1200hrs Sunday(above)snow spreads across most areas of SE/EA heaviest to the north of London.
1200hrs-1800hrs-snow spreading across through Sunday into Central South, this chart indicates mostly light snow.
For the South coast the very cold air/upper temps get there this weekend but it's the amounts of ppn that is what to watch for there by time it can snow. some say"it can pour down with rain but it hardly snows" "by time it turns to snow it fizzles out" this is because drier more stable air from higher pressure moves in, through next week high pressure would stop most snow from developing and become dry for a while but snow risk increases again later, we could find another battle from the Atlantic taking hold, the block in the north of the UK not shifting just yet.
Data - GFS/NAE 00Z
ESS
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420GMT radar snap..
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1mm=1cm snow ,approx
South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 21st May 2013 onwards
in Regional
Posted
The NW forecast mentioned the showers..I should have read this on the day like I normally do!
I didn't look at any forecast yesterday during the day.