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ZONE 51
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Posts posted by ZONE 51
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Was thinking that to, although the distance lampposts are more pointed upwards. Need to analyse the film through the frames, maybe post some frames or something from it, my techniques i use have been used on my analysis of UFO films. As you say, superheated fireball ,so i won't expect to actually find any detail!I'm sure that darker patch is just the lampost in front of the fireball. You'd never see any detail in a superheated fireball like that.
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GFS 18z +180hr (upper temps charts)indicating a cold pool firing into the Southern half of the UK early next wk, with a northeast/easterly flow.
Thickness 850/1000hpa:
Thickness 500/1000hpa:
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Below are two images i have put together-
1-ECM 12Z/GFS 18Z previous/recent for Thurs 21/2
2-UKMO 12Z/GFS 18Z/ECM 12Z (recent runs)for Fri 22/2
Looking dry and cold for all, freezing nights!! snow shws Southeast maybe further up East coast mid-late wk. It could be boring(depends on what you favour)it could be helpful being dry, but it's an Easterly and that's what most are chasing are they not!??
I would like at least some light snow flurries from the cloud!
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GFS 18z - Thickness 850/1000hpa
168hrs(next Saturday)
180hrs (next Sunday)
Very cold all areas, there would be a lot of cloud down east side of UK.
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ECM 850s
120hrs(Thurs)
-11C upper temps into SE/EA
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ECM 850s Central Europe 120hrs this shows where the coldest airmass goes (at this stage)
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The smoke trail.. anyone think it was the height of a cumulus cloud? certainly looks it to me.
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The image above contains the original photo/frame and an adjusted brightness image where i reduced brightness and gamma with an enlargement box that shows a small amount of extra detail in the center of the fireball.
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Just went through the list i can't find it! that's where i got the date from under Next Earth Close Approach.
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“Current information, which is not yet complete nor confirmed, points to a small asteroid,â€
http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Operations/Russian_asteroid_strike
Incredible stuff this, very interesting. Watched the news on BBC/ITV amazing footage. Heard on radio afternoon about something going on while i was travelling, only caught bits of it so at that point i didn't know it was a meteor although they mentioned the Asteroid and said there not connected, i gathered some big incident/event had happened, i heard the words "sonic boom" "coincidence" and "not connected" . When i saw the news my first thoughts were "wow incredible" "hope everyone is ok" then i imagined the near earth pass of the Asteroid and thought maybe it pulled in the Meteor.
Check out this Asteroid named 2004FU 162 - this predicted to near miss Earth 17/3/13 (8m size)
I found this out while searching on a space agency site, was in the list of "a risk" !!
I can't find 2004FU 162 in the list, it was there!!
Click link below, when on the site click Full Risk list. Then look at object name.
Link here:http://neo.ssa.esa.i...guest/risk-page (let me know if anyone finds info on it thanks)
It's predicted to be a near miss.
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I would like to get my thoughts in early on spring before my LRF late Feb.
March-
I would like March to be cold crisp and with snow showers at times from the NE/E, March is a month when we see a higher chance of high pressure, depending on placement this could mean cold/warm, at this point i see not much evidence of an early warm spell, i am expecting a cold and wintry month with mild days at times, a quieter more settled month in terms of Atlantic activity, we can of course receive Atlantic storms, it is a month which has recorded some potent wind storms even in the the south. I'm starting to get signals of a cold northeasterly and easterly flow being frequent, but high pressure with calm frosty weather at times, i see this affecting the east/south mostly, with Atlantic weather affecting northwest mostly.
April-
This is as far as i go at this point and not more than early month, small signals of an early warm spell after a wintry start.
ESS
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Image below GFS/ECM compare 20/2
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It will feel like a heatwave! when compared to what we have experienced then anyone with 10C tmw would notice it.I'm actually looking forward to the brief slightly milder period
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I have increasing confidence of an increasing risk next week of a wintry spell..
Rain here now(around Esher) had steady snow with a dusting around 5pm, was actually a little like blizzard conditions in gusty winds.. maybe over dramatic then! really it gave a dusting on roofs and cars but melted soon after it stopped.
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23rd Feb 850s ECM..shows -10/-11C uppers
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I know ECM! Thanks for that anyway.They mean this model run.
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http://en.wikipedia....orrection_modelJP must have fainted when he saw the ECM 12z. First of all he'll be talking in his sleep saying ECM, ECM, then he'll wake up with a big JP Ramp grin
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An error correction model is a dynamical system with the characteristics that the deviation of the current state from its long-run relationship will be fed into its short-run dynamics.An error correction model is not a model that corrects the error in another model. Error Correction Models (ECMs) are a category of multiple time seriesmodels that directly estimate the speed at which a dependent variable - Y - returns to equilibrium after a change in an independent variable - X. ECMs are useful for estimating both short term and long term effects of one time series on another. • Thus, they often mesh well with our theories of political and social processes. • Theoretically-driven approach to estimating time series models.ECMs are useful models when dealing with integrated data, but can also be used with stationary data.
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DancingWhat the heck are those two fronts doing in a high.
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Believe me SR, when it comes to computers I have plenty of senior moments, after all I've just mastered the Abacus.
For all you youngsters on-line the Abacus came just before the Sega Master System!
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Cheers,
Tom
And here is the proof....
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It's likely to become rather wintry SE/EA next week..
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Air flow still to have a southeasterly element to it later tmw before the weather fronts, cold air from the continent .
Certainly rain after the falling snow though!
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Done a snow risk map using 12z/18z model data, the start of this risk for SE/EA is tomorrow evening.
(The map is a very small file size 12k)
ESS
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Looking far ahead, into March, it's a higher chance our area will experience cold weather then mild, i expect a wintry month with snowy spells, and will place my thoughts in the spring thread at some point, might do a forecast.
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Northeasterly flow picking up moisture from the north seaInteresting, what information, data are you basing this on? I'm not disagreeing with you, just wondering what is suggesting patchy snow. Ta.
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Look at this Thickness chart 850/1000hoa
It really gives some impact to the mild air out west and the cold air east with the dividing line down center of the UK on Wednesday eve,
This battle would ensure a northern snow event, i think our region should get some wet snow/sleet low ground for a while, but over the high ground and north of the region then more snow on low ground.
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Its looks like we are going to see snow fluffies on and off tomorrow and tomorrow night. Only light though and just a dusting in places, scattered snow!
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Meteor shower in Chelyabinsk, Central Russia
in Space, Science & nature
Posted · Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
Any ideas of what this other object could be tracking across the path of the meteor?
I have put together an image, it's a frame from a news video.
Video below starts at 45seconds around where above image/frame was taken.
http://youtu.be/36MEsWC1Pzc?t=45s
Edit..
It looks as though the other object could be the wires, as the movie is being taken while driving it gives the impression it is moving as two angles of movement are in the video.