quest4peace

Can we absolutely come to the conclusion 2007 will never be reached again though?

So fram can be taken off the guilty list I always write everything as a question if I can i kind of understand what you mean about you seemingly getting heckled, at every point, and the quote from a song that's apt is "They all laughed at christopher columbus, when he said the world was round" comes to mind.Unfortunately i don't know enough to say who i think is wrong and who is right, but you were always pointing out the loss of the thick ancient ice. I'm sure you take no satisfaction in the fact we have lost such resources, and just stick to what you believe/understand?,which is admirable in the face of adversity.I have now got used to understanding where the ice should be, multi and first year ice and ideal max extents/area/thickness's and mins etc.. from the various sites and comments on here. And also that for some reason, sst's are badly affecting freeze areas. Still a lot for me to learn, as there seems to be a dizzying amount of variables but I'm getting there slowly. Mean while the sea ice has enveloped Barrow a lot more today

Fram really is messing things up at the moment then?, as far as remaining thick ice goes If only we could stop losing the ice in this way, there would be a chance of maintaining what's left? and in better years even creating a larger area of thicker once again? Thus increasing radiation of heat back skyward. But Im only wishing really. Also would losing the permafrost leave these areas more prone to erosion?

Current sea ice area anom at 1.78 million now And definite sea ice at Barrow now, as mentioned earlier in the thread. Not a totally solid cover but nice to see regardless and not amazingly far from average, if you go by the 5th nov as the average day. And looking at todays extent and concentration from AMSR2 Arctic Sea-Ice Monitor on IJIS it's Barent's,Kara and Baffin that i would say is the main culprits now extent wise these areas looking particularly bad, as beaufort seems to be finally getting close to sealing up now? Anomaly chart from nsidc.http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ red lines show how far away from normal we are on our side of the arctic and in Baffin One last Map the current age of the areas of ice as of todays extent Dark blue: Nilas Ice 0-10cm Pink: Young ice 10-30cm Green:First year ice 30-200cm Brown: Survived at least one summers melt And light Blue: Ice free Will the brown area be next years min?

Not looking brilliant still then

Nice to see the anoms still ahead of 2010 snow-wise make me feel more positive Could we have another Dec this year like back then i wonder? Lol! Nice to see some at last though and mighty cold Did i read right it doesn't normally ice over till December on average anyway?

http://uk.weather.co...Barrow-USAK0025 I'm currently pointing at barrow because of the anomalous warmth in that area recently.-23 is the current temp there now After being so stupidly mild for so long,that's more like it surely? Snow has receded somewhat by the looks of it but i'm hoping only a temporary lull Current northern hemisphere snow and ice from NOAA as of yesterday. http://satepsanone.n...ultisensor.html

Add to that the thermal expansion of the sea water, and melt off from Greenland, and sea level rise rears it's ugly head? http://www.huffingto..._n_1942666.html Arctic Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise May Pose Imminent Threat To Island Nations, Climate Scientist Says The Huffington Post | By James Gerken Posted: 05/10/2012 4:39 pm This Sept. 16, 2012, image released by NASA shows the amount of summer sea ice in the Arctic, at center in white, and the 1979 to 2000 average extent for the day shown, with the yellow line. Scientists say sea ice in the Arctic shrank to an all-time low of 1.32 million square miles on Sept. 16, smashing old records for the critical climate indicator. (AP Photo/U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center, File) Low-lying island nations threatened by rising sea levels this century could see the disastrous consequences of climate change far sooner than expected, according to one of the world's leading climate scientists. In the wake of last month's discovery that the extent of Arctic sea ice coverage hit a record low this year, climate scientist Michael Mann told the Guardian that "Island nations that have considered the possibility of evacuation at some point, like Tuvalu, may have to be contending those sort of decisions within the matter of a decade or so." Mann, who is the director of Pennsylvania State University's Earth System Science Center, said that current melting trends show sea ice is "declining faster than the models predict." "The models have typically predicted that will not happen for decades but the measurements that are coming in tell us it is already happening so once again we are decades ahead of schedule," Mann told the Guardian. This year's record melting, which occurred under more "normal" conditions than the previous record set in 2007, left Arctic sea ice at a minimum "nearly 50 percent lower than the average ... for the years 1979-2000," according to Climate Central. Rapidly decreasing sea ice suggests that the melting of polar ice sheets may occur more rapidly than previously predicted. Mann explained to the Guardian that "we [will] really start to see sea level rises accelerate," as the Greenland and the west Antarctic ice sheets disappear. Unlike with the melting of sea ice, these ice sheets would introduce vast quantities of water into the world's oceans, making them "critical from the standpoint of sea level rise," according to Mann. The ongoing rise in average global temperatures, which has accelerated Arctic ice melt, has been largely attributed to the burning of fossil fuels and the resultant increase in greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide in our atmosphere. For the most vulnerable island nations, like the Maldives, Kiribati, the Torres Strait Islands and many others, rising seas will bring significant coastal erosion and saltwater contamination of limited freshwater supplies. Environmental group Oceana recently noted that nations dependent upon the sea will face food security threats as greater temperatures and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide increase ocean acidity and put marine life at risk. Despite the increasingly clear picture painted by scientific observations and climate modeling, "There's a huge gap between what is understood by the scientific community and what is known by the public," according to NASA scientist James Hansen. Recent polling suggests that as much as 35 percent of the U.S. population and 37 percent of the British public remain unconvinced of the scientific reality of climate change.

Cheers BFTV quite sobering a new record average min line every 4 years?? A difference of 3.5 million over all, is quite heavy going by any stretch, just think how 2012's line would look on IJIS with 90's and 00's lines removed mind blowing.

When you look at the fact the "average", 10 year mins have got lower and lower, we are seeing a new record average min each decade. So even if we went back to the average 00's min line, in the next few years (doesn't look like it),we would in reality still be in a shocking state, because that would still be a record average level of minimum. We haven't even managed the 00's min line over the past few years on a single years extent, and are currently way below even that?? New average record min line for 2010's decade i'm thinking So maybe somebody could put up a graph, just showing the 80's average minimum extent line, and see how drastically below the 80's benchmark we are. I think it would make people see, how far from healthy we really are at moment,certainly brings it home P.s that might need some deciphering lol! but i think you will get the idea of what i'm saying

Must confess I thought Barrow wasn't going to get ice of any kind for a long time yet, considering how slow formation has been around that area. Good there are signs of ice formation now, which is something at least. Really bad I'd like to think going back above 2007 at least would be possible still. No matter how dour that still will be

Not sure how significant it is for the sea ice in the area, but Barrow in alaska Is currently -20c according to http://uk.weather.co...Barrow-USAK0025 And latest webcam picture hint of ice in the sea? or just fog?

You've always been very accomodating too, along with the other regulars and fellow newbies, thank you I'm getting a much better understanding, of what goes on up north now, but at the same time, i know there is a mind boggling amount more to learn I find yours,BFTV, and others posts helpful and always willing to answer any questions I have no matter how back to front they are Lol! I work as part of a Voluntary Environmental charity, we go around local conservation areas and help local woodlands and other areas of protected status, so i'm really into what is happening around the planet

Thanks BFTV I always see these forums as being in existence to inform people, and I feel i have learn't more than i would of known otherwise off a lot of you guys I just think it becomes a competition, between who knows best on here sometimes, and people forget that some members join, only having had a recent interest in things affecting our planet and are put off posting because they dont want to look daft.

Glad to see you liked it so much lol! I think it was quite interesting for people who may be new to all things arctic, and might get a few more lay people on board in the population?

Don't know if you have seen the "Operation Iceberg" program on bbc 2, after Autumn watch?, but they are at a a different part of greenland and the arctic each episode. Anyway, it was showing how the glaciers carve their icebergs and the fact that they are being sped up by surface melt and lubrication from water draining from these melt pools. Also they measured the different water temps around the glacier, and found that although on the whole the water temps were averaging a constant -1.5C around the glacier, there was a thin layer of relatively water from the atlantic, melting the ice through the middle, causing a shelf of undercut ice. This was found to accelerate berging and thus loss of ice. One of the famous "bergs" they were filming was the peterman ice berg, that broke free from greenland 2 years ago and still going strong in the ocean (Baffin?). The core even after 2 years adrift still had a core temp of -13c only a +3 climb from when it was first carved and is 3km across and 100m thick. Recommend watching.

Hi Gagerg more positive predictions from NASA i see I don't know enough about what's happening in greenland to be fair, need to look into it. But this years autumn levels are astonishing to me, that is for certain. As for next years min, who know's? but another record low next year and the affect that could have, is daunting.

Haven't looked for a while but can't be much of an increase. The line is unprecedented now for this time of year drifted quite a way below 2007 now http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm The latest value : 7,688,438 km2 (November 1, 2012) Barents and Kara looking rather sorry and combined with Beaufort and most of the canadian side it's rather dismal and worrying Arctic Sea-Ice Monitor Ice extent and concentration map from Amsr2 on IJIS sst anoms http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/ Just look at the anoms on our side too now

Edit: repeat post.

Nice to see the siberian side mostly sealed up now Ice creeping very slowly towards Canada and Alaska now, thought if i didn't look for a few days it would make a bit more progress but nope Arctic Sea-Ice Monitor

Think we might need several hot water bottles this winter if 2010 is used as a comparison

Hi Harve It's more or less on the south eastern border of Siberia and also borders with China and North Korea to be exact 0.2 is twice 0.1 by the way. But you are right however saying you wouldn't feel any warmer with such a small difference . Also 12c is indeed twice as warm as 6c by anybody's working ,2 x 6 =12 so not ridiculous at all absolute zero is −270 °C by the way

Scotland does look rather cold and snowy for our time of year at least currently 8c in Tyndrum in the highlands and 5c in Aberdeen Scotland Considering some parts of Siberia are mighty cold and snowy at the moment seems slightly ott to be fair Also 13C in Vladivostok isn't that balmy either is it? i think it's their average October temp anyway seeing as they are near the Korean/ Russia/ China border?

Doesn't take much guessing what is causing this new low from yesterdays Amsr2 map. Usual culprit this year Canada/Alaska. http://www.ijis.iarc...ice-monitor.cgi Yesterdays extent and concentration 26th Oct 2012 Just look at 2007's extent and area at the same date though??? Canada/ Alaska Aside, the ice is in better condition this year more centrally? Open water was still a lot closer to the pole in 2007. 2007's extent and concentration for the same date.

http://www.dailyreco...-batter-1401869 Scotland skips autumn as snow blizzards batter parts of the country 27 Oct 2012 00:01 THE Met Office have issued a severe winter weather warning, with forecasters predicting up to two inches of snow in eastern and northern Scotland.IN one photo we have picture postcard scenery and glorious blues skies as Scotland puts on its best autumnal face. But just 69 miles away, a mum shivers in bone-chilling temperatures as she battles to push her baby’s buggy through a ferocious blizzard. There could be no better example of our country’s crazy weather. In Pitlochry, where the landscape was at its most beautiful, the temperature rose above 10C yesterday.Temperatures rose above 10C in Pitlochry But in Aberdeen the mercury struggled to stay above freezing and biting north west winds made it feel like minus five as residents endured a white hell of snow and ice. Twitter users reported blizzards and “completely covered†cars and trees in the Silver City. Elsewhere, with temperatures barely hitting 6C in the Central Belt and 5C farther north, Scotland was TWICE as cold as parts of Siberia, with temperatures in Vladivostock soaring to a balmy 13C. And 24 hours before British Summer Time ends tonight, the Met Office issued a severe winter weather alert, forecasting up to two inches of snow in eastern and northern Scotland, plus sleet and hail. Met Office forecaster Charlie Powell said: “We’re expecting 2-5cm of Friday night snow in Aberdeen and northern Scotland. “Western Scotland could see hill snow on Saturday lunchtime.â€