spindrift1980

Met Office has now extended its snow warning to almost all of the highlands plus Moray and western Aberdeenshire: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=3 Will the snow-starved east coast and central belt contingent see anything? Could be a nowcasting situation with strong winds driving showers well inland?

Yes, my post above is more or less a summary of the following thread at http://www.winterhighland.info/forum/read.php?2,143591,page=3 which Iain Cameron (who posts at Winterhighland and on here as firefly) started earlier than usual (inspired by the mammoth early season blizzards) to keep an eye on Highland snowfall events during the winter and remaining patches later on in the year. I know some here are interested in this admittedly slightly obscure topic. I supply a few photos and observations from hillwalking trips but there are some very knowledgeable people posting on the thread, including snow expert and ecologist Dr Adam Watson, who posts as Chionophile. Has been a bit quieter for snowfall since new year although most areas have caught some beefy showers at times and there have been avalanches and more wind-scouring to increase the amount of snow in the favoured spots for retention. A few freeze-thaw cycles, notable by their absence during the long very cold spells of the last couple of winters, don't do the survival chances any harm anyway. We'll see whether Spring brings unusually warm weather like 2011, cold and heavy westerly snowfalls like 1994 or something closer to average. This could be crucial to how much is still around come the autumn.

Still the odd dirty patch of snow around East Kilbride (~170m asl) from where the roads were ploughed and snow piled up in mid-Jan! (the last time there was lying snow in these Lowland parts of Lanarkshire, although there was heavy snow just 20miles or so down the M74 on 4 February) On a less flippant note, the amount of snow in the usual areas for long-lasting snow in the Scottish mountains was unusually large by early January this year due to the prevalence of westerly storms during Dec/early Jan. Things have been a bit lean since and, of course, Spring could turn out warm and unsnowy again but there might well be much more long-lasting snow in the highlands this year than the last couple of atypical winters with their easterly and northerly winds despite the milder temperatures of the winter so far.

Anyone got any thoughts on the post below from the model discussion thread? Countryfile forecast suggested a possibility of a stalling front midweek and milder air moving northwards in the aftermath. Possible spanner in the works for any northerly? "Interesting countryfile forecast. BBC suggesting the cold front moving se on thursday could stall and develop a wave on it. This scenario is not being shown by any of the models and given we are only talking 96 hours it suggests the met have seen something many of the models haven't. It proves the reliable timeframe is very short at the moment 96 hours. Should such a feature verify then expect the models to be rather different looking tomorrow for prospects later in the week i.e. no northerly blast- the bbc said they were very uncertain mind.. Will be an interesting FAX chart tonight."

Suggestion of a possible colder less stable NW flow next weekend tallies with the last sentence of the current MWIS outlook: Extensively misty and foggy across many areas on Sunday, although some lifting of cloud base from the north. Upland northwesterly gales early next week, particularly on the Scottish Highlands. These will bring pulses of rather colder, drier air southwards, with a few snow showers on mainly northern mountains. Turning milder again later next week, with rain intermittently, mainly western mountains. Perhaps turning colder from the north around Friday with threat of heavier snow showers at the weekend.

[quote name='Hairy Celt'

There is a huge set of records (albeit mostly partial) of readings at weather stations in the UK going back decades here: http://www.tutiempo....Kingdom/GB.html Can't say I've ever trawled through them in detail let alone attempted any kind of analysis, however plenty of mild winter weather in decades prior to the late 80s/early 90s can be found without too much difficulty if you dip in to them. EDIT: having looked properly, they have re-designed this website and now only seem to have annual averages etc - they used to have daily readings going back years for all the weather stations listed - perhaps they are elsewhere on the site but can't see them.

That pretty much echoes my thoughts this winter. I haven't minded the lack of lowland snowfall too much since there is something exciting and quite satisying about starting off on bare ground at the bottom of a hill and working your way up until you hit the snowline and you feel as if you have moved through 2 or 3 climatic zones by climbing a few hundred metres and you have to work a bit (a lot!) for your reward of snow and ice. Plus it is easier to travel around on the low ground and you get the excitement of glimpsing the snow hillsides as you travel into the highlands - it can be very striking too when the glens are bare and brown and the mountains white. Having said that, the last couple of winters have re-awakened my interest in lowland snowfall and it would be nice to see a bit more soon. At least in Scotland you are never too far from somewhere that might see some snow whereas if you live in Luton or Lincoln or wherever it is a bit of an all or nothing scenario. I tend to look at forecasts etc from both a highland and lowland point of view and there is almost always something of interest.

Fairly dense fog here too. Although not great for lowland snow (so far!) this winter has at least provided a good range of different weather types.

Frosty, foggy and hovering around freezing in the Motherwell-Hamilton-EK area.

A couple of snowy scenes I photographed yesterday in Moffat Dale in the Borders - shows what might've been in other parts of Scotland if we had held onto the colder air!

Not in all of Scotland CSS! Plenty to be had in the Borders!

Plenty of snow today in Moffat Dale in the Borders. Pretty much a whiteout at the top of White Coomb (just over 800m) with steady moderate snow and strong winds whipping up the lying snow (spindrift!) in early afternoon but the heaviest snow was from just before 3 until 4.30ish and a good few centimetres have been deposited at all levels. The quality of the snow seemed drier and better the further east you went along the road (went as far as Tibbie Shiels Inn).A real proper winter's day with Loch Skeen almost all frozen over. Had to drive along the main Selkirk to Moffat road in 1st, 2nd & 3rd gears at about 10-20mph because of the snow cover on the road.The M74 south of about Crawford wasn't much better - very hazardous. Everywhere south of Douglas on the M74 had a covering although it was intermittently turning to sleet on the way up the M74 and the temperature steadily climbed from about Crawford northwards. Don't feel as bad about the lack of snow here and the snow-fest in England now that I've had my fix! Only bad point is that it all seems to have been too much for my digital camera which is malfunctioning - will try and get some pics up if I can to cheer up those suffering a Scotland rugby defeat in a non-snowy environment!

Met office have now issued yellow warning of snow for much of Perthshire and Angus away from the coast and excluding the southern/eastern areas around Perth and Dundee. Also still a warning for parts of the Borders. A big swathe down the middle (including the SE) of Englandshire is now on amber alert so BBC News 24 are no doubt preparing for their rolling news coverage of a few centimetres of snow at this very moment..... http://www.metoffice...ings.html?day=2

Coincidentally I am off to the Moffat area tomorrow so looks like it might be in the 'sweet spot' for a bit of snowfall going by those charts.

I'm envious as high pressure in winter makes for great crisp walking conditions with all the usual bogs and mud frozen over - not that you have to worry about that much with the nice new stony path on Schiehallion - and I'm stuck in the office all week with my hillwalking day this weekend being Saturday - what great timing! At least I might see some snow at altitude. Looks like we are left looking to FI for the cold again - from the north or north-west perhaps? - story of the winter - chasing cold which permanently stays 7-14 days away! Maybe some snow down south will calm the Model Thread hysteria ramped-up by lack of snow in the south this winter and we will get more constructive posts again after this weekend. Hmmm......

Met office have just updated their mid-range outlookk to suggest that after this weekend's rain/sleet/snow band moves through "northwesterly winds are likely to affect the UK, bringing showers to many northern and western areas, with a chance of further snow on hills, perhaps to lower levels in Scotland." Don't have enough model knowledge or spare time to figure out how they arrive at this conclusion or how likely it is, but I wouldn't say no to that - doubtless the outlook will have changed again by tomorrow though!

Back to a bright crisp morning with a fairly sharp air frost today (very similar to Monday) after yesterday's day of murky grey skies and tiny snow grains. Far too nice a day to be in the office today, and looks like the Atlantic might come for a visit at the weekend....oh dear

Latest take on the medium-term outlook from MWIS: "Terrain generally frozen, and substantially dry across the mountains until the weekend, when mainly across Scotland, slightly milder conditions will edge in. This will be accompanied by one or two bands of snow (intermittently rain on lower areas). Little precipitation will extend into England and Wales, although day by day from the weekend, it will become a little less cold."

MWIS outlook suggests that any mildness in Scotland towards the end of the week may only be an interlude before colder conditions become re-established (in other words the block wins out over the Atlantic): "Cold across all mountains until late in the week - and after what may be a milder interlude in Scotland - may continue to envelop Britain next week as well. Terrain will be substantially frozen and snow showers on some eastern mountains. Generally winds on the mountains fairly light. However, this coming weekend, fronts may well encroach into/across Scotland, with snow and low cloud spreading in. It may intermittently turn milder, with thaw of lying snow, at least on lower slopes, before the thaw slows or comes to a halt again into next week."

I'm properly excited now - I've found a post on the model thread which suggests we might see that rarest of meteorological phenomena - the snow dumpling! "Regardless, I would bank that run,95% of the country would be see dumplings of snow." I have diplomatically left the poster's name out, but it seems that snow dumplings may be nailded on!

MWIS refusing to get carried away on its medium-term outlook (the only bit that I like is 'very low freezing levels' and am not so keen on the highlighted section!): "There is threat on western mountains, particularly in Scotland of dull, murky weather with the light snow (or lower down drizzly) into next week, but cold air over the Continent may well then envelop at least England and Wales, and perhaps intermittently Scotland, bringing very low freezing level, little precipitation and to some areas sunshine" Would hope for a bit better than this, looking at the current charts....

Snowing a bit more vigorously now! Still seems a bit wet to add anything to the existing stuff on the ground. Is actually quite nice in the quieter parts of town where yesterday's snow hasn't been tramped into slush before freezing.