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weirpig

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Everything posted by weirpig

  1. weirpig
    It's a good job the ecm isn't the king of models and has the highest verification stats. Sorry what was that oh. In all seriousness in its early frames it was certainly a move towards the gfs. However was scuppered around t 144 with that shortwave. As we were chaps . Eyes down for the pub run
  2. weirpig
    Lots of knee jerk reactions again I expect another few days of models disagreeing with one another. What will be interesting is the extended ukmo later tonight. It will be crucial! ( not really but I thought I'd build the suspense )
  3. weirpig
    yep as follows Operational run = high resolution model, no change to initial conditions Control run = as operational model but a lower resolution model (i.e. less horizontal and vertical grid points) Ensemble runs = the lower resolution model (same as control run) but with small changes to initial condtions
  4. weirpig
    I think people are turning mad in this thread. Anyway Met still seem to be pushing the colder regime next week infact its quite a update with snow and heavy mentioned in the same sentence. hopefully over the next day or so we will start to see some agreement with this evolution within the various models. Much better than last year already and its still only Autumn.
  5. weirpig
    Id place it at 40-60 against a Northerly ( according to the ensebles) support for the opp and control but again until the midterm is sorted out ( as you can see its split into 2 clusters.) Then its difficult to see were we are going.
  6. weirpig
    Yes different from the 0z just another pattern but the same theme. Snow will and could pop up anywhere. But as you say nothing like the ECM all in all decent 6z
  7. weirpig
    Control looking very similar to the opp tonight cold digging south
  8. weirpig
    60/30 mr isobar? State education I presume?
  9. weirpig
    Dear me blizzards on this run. Hurricane at 312 and a forecast for locusts the middle of the month. Something for everyone me thinks
  10. weirpig
    Pub run special. If only more important for me is the trend. And at the moment it's looking good . Snow could pop up anywhere if this trend continues . Brilliant model watching .
  11. weirpig
    And a brief shower this morning 8 oclock whilst taking son to school 2 showers. our cup runneth over!
  12. weirpig
    Well that was fun a world away from the previous run so much volatility at the moment nothing is really clear. could it happen? maybe and before people start saying its only the GFS 6z. This morning people were praising the GEM for first picking up the signals for a failed northerly. All to play for. for me continued blocking ( in any form) is the favourite at the moment.
  13. weirpig
    The Difference is Stark. Models really ARE all over the place and whatever outcome this or any of the other models produce today certainly wont prove anything for next week
  14. weirpig
    Right im not giving up lets see what the 6z does wow its like the mary celeste in here
  15. weirpig
    lol it's like a soap opera. On the plus side. Poland get snow
  16. weirpig
    I haven't seen that is this the same forecast that went for mainly north eastern winds last winter? If so wet and mild is the best update of the season
  17. weirpig
    Yep standard model flux. Fergie on twitter stated blocked and cold uptill the 15th maybe even longer however after that ec run I'm sure he will change his mind to be honest for me the model watching is nearly as good as getting the cold snowy weather.
  18. weirpig
    Dear me this thread has more up and downs then a Greek tragedy think I might read The Odyssey for some light relief. 12z certainly tries to put a spanner in the works just a blip I expect signals still remain good see you for the 18z
  19. weirpig
    I swear he just copies what the Met office musings are. latest 3-monthly probabilistic outlook from @metoffice: December likely (but not guaranteed) to be colder & drier v avg; rest of winter more likely to trend into wetter/milder territory, with a higher risk of heavy rain/windier episodes.
  20. weirpig
    Hard to say Global temperatures dropped last time Agung erupted Mount Agung last erupted in 1963 after lying dormant for decades. When it erupted, experts said global atmospheric temperatures dropped by 0.1-0.4 degrees Celsius. That might not sound like much, but it's quite a significant drop when you consider the last ice age occurred when global temperatures were only 5C cooler than they are now.
  21. weirpig
    Have you seen any snow showers yet? we had a few flurries Saturday. so at least broke the duck for the this season.
  22. weirpig
    Currently 6.8c here with a nagging wind and rain. will no doubt feel a lot colder later this week.
  23. weirpig
    Opp Run very close to the mean on quite a bit of the run certainly no outlier the control on the other hand. does dip slightly but still decent ensembles from the 6z
  24. weirpig
    Full ensembles. Control mild outlier opp on the cold side but has support
  25. weirpig
    To be honest i don't remember the fax charts following any other model other than the ukmo in my opinion for what it's worth it would be one of the biggest shocks since Gareth gates losing pop idol if the ecm is that wrong at that range. Backed up by the other models I can only see it going one way . Interesting non the less
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