weirpig

Looking at the ensembles most show a potential snow event anywhere from the north all the way down to the Midlands. At this range its very difficult to pinpoint the actual position regarding the low. It looks like most will at least see some of the white stuff failing from the sky. Ive also noticed the Aperage is also showing this low for Friday into Saturday . And depending on which run you look at Last nights run or this mornings the main band of snow is again anywhere from the North to the Midlands Interesting Also see attached Short ensembles for Brum Opp very close to the mean

Decent run from the ecm there Synoptics are lovely just let down by the uppers which are not the coldest at the moment . Still room for upgrades as we go forward eyes down for the 18z

Well if this comes off quite a few will see lying snow . Altitude I still think will be key. But what a nice little upgrade on the 12 z also a lot more ridging into Greenland after the northerly moves along on this run

very cold December this year and dryish lots of northerly incursions 1.9c 41mm

Thats quite a difference from yesterdays update!

Chilly set of ensembles on the 6z run below is the graph for middle England, It shows chilly Temps coming up also not without interest for a touch of the white stuff even this far South. the mean really dosent get above zero

Way in fi now no point in looking any further. Northerly looks odds on at the moment how low the uppers will be and were is still up in the air. Also a pattern is emerging for renewed heights into greenland after that. decent charts at the moment.

Yes agree. However this starts at t96 and at this time range ecm is definitely the top dog Certainly something more wintry showing. How much we will see over the next few days

Yep enough for me still lots to be resolved

Ecm what are you doing?

Bet me to it better heights on the ecm looks a stronger block

this show a few going for quite a temp drop towards the end of the short ensembles

Control again see that pesky shortwave by Iceland hinder the blocking. why is it never simple?.

That dosent sound so outlandish cold air is marching towards the Uk maybe the low will slide under giving copious amounts of snowfall?. Then Again

Bit of a climb down by the GFS block nowhere near as strong shortwaves spawning in the Atlantic and all at t144 Incoming Low looks like will take the block out mmm still its only November

mmm 6z not looking as good high not as robust. shortwaves making more inroads we shall see

Im a bit bemused this morning. The Gfs 0z was a very good run (it was never going to be as good as the 18z) the UKMO is awful but the ECM has deffo made a beeline towards the GFS . for me all to play for . EDIT of course this could all change on the 6z in which case disregard this post as its the utterings of an middle age man.

There as quite a few go the same route. Short ensembles

Mix bag of ensembles. None the wiser control gives a dartboard low . No idea

Loosing cold uppers. Bin it

Edit

Sticking to it's guns somewhat

In the immortal words of England's favourite vegetable. Do I not like that. Awful ecm run with mild south westerlies

Now being a fashion guru I'm in a pickle next week I will either be wearing a rather dashing sheepskin coat. Or flip flops what to do. Ecm and gfs at different ends of the spectrum . Do I back against the king ecm?

Ecm says no. Onward to the 18z tiring this model watching