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Posts posted by Stormyking
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39 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Considering it's my birthday on the Thursday too! Birthday MCS ayee? Exciting times ahead for SE'ers.
You never know mate, that would be a pretty decent birthday present eh. Ive got everything crossed!
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It hasn't been tracking further and further east, if anything its been the same position for the last 4/5 runs, Looks as though a wave of Elevated Showers/Storms reaches the South Coast and South East coast in the Evening, Anywhere from the Isle of Wight Eastwards. Then the MCS area then moves up across the same areas, though where I am for the 2nd wave maybe a little too far west, but from Bognor Regis. I really dont think this is just a Kent clipper and in my opinion from what iv'e been seeing the majority of the South East is in with a very decent shout of seeing something. Still time for things to change with 24 hours to get even!
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Im in one of those situations at the moment whether I stay on the Isle of Wight due to the fact this risk is extremely close and could so easily be a sweet spot, or do me and my friend book a ferry and drive a bit further East, its so frustrating!
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Wooo we finally got a proper storm between 5pm and 5:45pm, had bowls towards the North of the island, this cell developed which started popping out a few CGS, and then drove right under it, thunder was proper loud, and quite frequent too Proper over the moon!
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Nice interesting day an dit was nice not to miss out on some of todayts fun had 2 incredible torrential downpurs which was awesome, and at about 3:30- 4pm, The line that developed over the South coast, was a nice one tod, while the heaviest didnt quite reach I heard 4-5 cracks and rumbles of thunder Finally off 6 thunder days
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Hugeeee Cumulus going up towards my North and North West which is on our track, bembridge currently under a heavy shower
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Here you go guys, from earlobes downpour, only phone quality mind so apologise
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1 minute ago, ztam said:
We had nothing in St helens, Could see the Cells from here over sandown way, sky looking very dark but dry over here a few miles away...
It was mad, the heaviest part crossed directly over my head, shanklin got it bad too
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Jeeeez that was torrential, got a video of the shower we just had, gonna try and upload it
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7 hours ago, Supacell said:
I love this, quality picture mate!
Been surprisingly a really quiet first half to the year down here on the Isle of Wight, the type of conditions and wind directions and other elements just haven't been right for these parts. However im not gonna as I know we have had our fair share over the years. And there is a long long way to go yet!
Really happy for those who are having a good year this year, even though im still jealous, I love tracking it all and enjoy reading all the reports
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Couple of showers have passed threw here of late, some really heavy ones over west wight too
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See its kicked off nicely just North of Bristol, and of coarse the area that was most expected furtehr North, jealous of you guys! Have fun regardless!
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To me the stuff coming up tonght and tomorrow, doesn't look that convective, especially by the time it reaches the South West Coast, best chance for storms tomorrow looks to be further North!
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In my opinion give it until around 9pm, light starts fading, and nocturnal cloud top cooling starts kicking and in my opinion this definitely givees things a boost, so dont be surpised if showers/storm fire up towards dark!
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28 minutes ago, Harry said:
This only shows precipitation remember - NMM MUCAPE projections are uninspiring so would not be too confident of much steric activity.
As I said too William in my last post, im taking this with a pinch of salt, I know there are alot more ingredients you need, ive checked all other things like MUCAPE , its okay but still time for improvements, wind shear could be quite important though i haven't that yet. id rather be chasing the mainland stuff to be fair
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Just now, William Grimsley said:
@Stormyking, that what I was trying to explain to @ajpoolshark. LOL. I do feel you're right there, Sunday Night does look interesting and it would be a nice treat after thunderstorm chasing all day. LOL. Imagine if that came to fruition! Thunderstorm hunger eliminated!
The charts before didnt look that great for Monday morning, so I understood AJ's post as to why so was kinda with him on that one im afraid mate, but the latest run increases the potential for sure but im gonna take it with a pinch of salt as we have been here before and it ends in tears, still a few days away
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Latest 12z has got my interest suddenly for Sunday night into Monday, an area of Elevated showers/ storms develop in the channel and push up from the South East, its only 1 run but theres been a bit of a trend on something being picked up, still early days. Wasn't that interested in monday morning before but confidence has gone up a touch, reminds me a little of June 2013
As for the rest of the uk its looking like an interesting few days coming up
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Boom what a guess, has literally just gone off
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Cell to the South West of Bristol is about to start firing any minute i reckon, looks insane on the radar!
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Just now, Gordon Webb said:
i know you were didn't mean to infer the opposite , i was actually be specific to your area around the evennig time you mentioned
hope that clears up any confusion that my reply might have created
Its cool dude, thing with this Evening, theres better inhibiton and the wind shear improves too, thats why i think if any storms/showers go up then will be better organised and individual rather than scattered and messy.
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6 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:
that might be true of your location but not for everybody at least I'b be surprised if it were
I was stating in general not just for the island, I didnt even mention the my area o.O
6 minutes ago, ztam said:you think the island is in with a chance this evening Ryan.. Really hope so.... the folks on the isle of wight thunderstorm group are driving me nuts, messaging me when the next storm and going to be ..
I actually do mate, i think the island is in a decent spot, especially this evening when nocturnal cloud top cooling kicks in
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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Right even though the Isle of Wight is in the risk, I think me and my friend are on about drivng Eastwards towards the Brighton/Hastings area as we don't wana take any risks, unless any of the more Knowledgeable guys thinks we should stay put anyways!