nick sussex

I see more drama has unfolded . The GFS 06 hrs run goes a step further than the UKMO and disrupts shortwave energy se supporting the mini wedge of heights to the north . So yet another solution thrown into the mix .

Hold your fire for the day 7 . You might be surprised ! So we were not surprised ! Don’t really but its evolution from day 6 into 7 .

After yet more deliberations the jury is still unable to reach a verdict ! Sums up the Christmas week forecast ! The models do seem to be making a drama of the upstream pattern highlighted by the big changes in the UKMO. At the moment the day itself looks to be on the cold side but snow wise too early to say although Scotland and northern areas look to have the best chance . What happens into Boxing Day , varied options on the menu . The UKMO day 7 for example is trying to disrupt some energy se wards . You can see that circled red . A complication is the shortwave circled black near Iceland . The ECM coming out now . We await its verdict ! Day 6 certainly looks better than the GFS .

The ECM is annoying . Its not a disaster as those upstream lows remain shallow initially and you can see with a few tweaks how it could look a whole lot better . It just keeps the cold air close enough to keep you thinking . So for the timebeing still a lot of uncertainty for Christmas .

Very funny . In my defence when I was a kid I used to enjoy watching the repeats over Christmas. So not as old to watch the originals ! It’s certainly been an eventful day so far . It’s a race between the troughing edging se and the upstream low edging east .

Looks like a Flash Gordon evening so far . Just when you thought it was over he stages a miraculous escape . An improvement in the models but we do have the recent grinch model to come . The last few weeks the models seem to have really struggled with these upstream shortwaves .

Yes but it’s in the wrong place . Give it to tonight’s runs . The priest is on standby to perform the last rites . The Great Slush Event 2023 is about to be put out of its misery ! Unless that is we get a Flash Gordon cliffhanger where you think he’s fallen off the edge of a cliff but in the next episode he found a miracle ledge .

Another poor run. The shortwave near Iceland waiting to phase with the upstream low . Regardless of the early differences re the low near Newfoundland the end looks the same . No amount of lipstick is going to change the pig into a supermodel !

Look at last nights ECM and today’s . It’s really not doing a good job .

I’ve seen much much worse . There is some colder air temporarily especially for northern areas .

A poor start to the day with Christmas snow chances receding . There maybe some snow before the big day for northern areas but overall the outputs are moving in the wrong direction . Although there are some differences with the handling of low pressure near Newfoundland it doesn’t seem to make a huge difference further down the line apart from the JMA which is hardly a ringing endorsement. The ECM drops last nights tease and decides to implode with great fanfare as in it decides to really sour the mood ! The UKMO looks like what the ECM was previously showing but post day 7 that looks like it’s going to phase a shortwave near Iceland with low pressure edging east out of ne Canada . Given the timeframes there’s still a hope for some changes but currently if you were dealing in sledge shares you’d be dumping your stock . Overall model ratings 5/10. Briefly 6/10 for the north .

The jury remains out on Christmas prospects . The ECM hasn’t done enough to suggest that a colder solution isn’t possible . It was quite similar to the GFS in the earlier stages and then ejected the upstream low more quickly eastwards . It’s finely balanced and could go either way .

The ECM starts edging the low off the eastern USA by day 7 eastwards . All depends now on whether some energy disrupts se on day 8 .

An interesting start to the day with the GFS developing a northerly for Christmas. The key part of the output is still though too far out . The UKMO looks somewhat different at day 7 . The key part of that is whether shortwave energy will head se on day 8 . The GEM has a similar evolution to the GFS although a less clean flow moving south . The ICON is underwhelming and shows what can happen without the necessary time to get low pressure sufficiently se . Phasing issues occur and it’s poor . A much awaited ECM to come !

It’s an emotional rollercoaster for coldies . But they always get up from the floor after a left hook from mild mush and gather their strength .

ECM go to the naughty step ! Cruelly dangling the carrot for coldies after all they’ve been through over the last week . The good news , there seems to be plenty of cold air to the north . The bad news it’s a struggle to get that very far south . The ECM edges that just far enough south to raise the interest for more northern parts . But theres very little margin for error especially at that range . It could well disappear by tomorrow given the high wire ECM act . Of course if the UKs luck changed then things might move in another direction ! Some hope is better than no hope!

The ECM looks like it’s going to split the shortwave energy over the eastern seaboard day 5 into 6 and so can’t evolve like the GFS . Whether that adds up to a more wintry scenario we’ll know very soon .

We await the ECM just as Princess Leia awaited Obi Wan Kenobi . You know it’s a Code Red Emergency when I start using film analogies . The battle to save Christmas rests with the ECM . So far this evening the dark side of the force is in the ascendancy.

Sadly the UKMO isn’t that great . The best that can be said is it disagrees with the GFS upstream and so the pattern isn’t set .

Take it from me . It’s utter pants . And models in particular the GFS has a bias to overplay the southern placement of the jet at longer range in these set ups. You need to see some forcing to push the jet south . Still waiting for the UKMO hopefully that’s better at day 7.

At this rate with the constant delays I’ll be pushing a zimmer frame around by the time it arrives . Talk about slow burner !

The GFS is dire . And the longer it takes for the trough to dig south the more likely that doesn’t happen . Without any real forcing from the nw it’s a hard slog to get that south . The UKMO looks better at day 6 . Waiting for the day 7 which must surely look better than the GFS.

Coldies having to feed off scraps from the buffet table . So par for the course for most UK winters . We haven’t yet plummeted to the buffet table completely empty so it could be worse. There still seems a lot of faffing about upstream with shortwave energy between model runs . I think the jury remains out on what to expect in the run up to Christmas . Realistically we aren’t going to see a freeze or widespread snow . Marginal conditions for most who aren’t on much higher ground especially further north .

The ECM wants to take more shortwave energy around the high at day 8 . This then suppresses the Atlantic high and edges the cold east . The latter stages are quite different from last night and so for the time being I’d be wary of it . Its hardly covered itself in glory over the last few weeks .

General agreement on the pattern . So a shortwave develops over Florida runs ne then this phases with vorticity heading south out of Canada . A breakaway shortwave then runs into Greenland and heads se on the eastern flank of the Atlantic high, this phases with low heights to the north causing this to deepen and then tracks into the North Sea . What the UK ends up with then is determined by how much dig south and east of the eventual UK troughing . And how amplified the upstream pattern is at that stage . After any initial colder flow some Atlantic energy will then move east . Where that goes as in more se or more ne will determine whether the cold hangs on . There doesn’t look to be a lot of energy upstream at this point . Neither the GFS or GEM have some angry looking low so this is where the likely intrigue might play out ! Anyway the ECM coming out now so let’s see what that has to offer .