nick sussex

Yesterday’s ECM 00 hrs run to T120 hrs . Todays ECM 00hrs run to T96 hrs . That’s quite a change over 24 hrs .

The ECM looks a mess with a lot going on. Day 6 into 8 is a shortwave frenzy. I think it’s for the cat litter tray. I doubt we’ve seen anything close to the correct evolution this evening from any of the outputs . Too many things going on behind the scenes .

I wouldn’t worry about the detail too much at this point . What we have is a steep rise followed by a rapid drop in zonal winds over the space of just a few days . I really don’t think the models will cope well !

The rapid drop in zonal winds is likely to cause a lot of model variability. If the trend to correct the pattern west gathers pace then things could get quite interesting .

I would have thought an initial pressure rise to the ne is more likely than one to the nw . A rapid decrease in forecast zonal winds correlates more with that initial westwards pattern correction with lows slowing nearing the UK and with some energy disrupting se .

Yes those low tracks are essentially a marker for how much forcing is placed onto the jet . We often get this debate when we have shortwaves tracking into the UK . It does become a bit IMBY related which is understandable given the scarcity of UK snow .

Happy Christmas and it looks like the models have picked up some festive cheer for coldies. The search for New Year cold and snow looks to be getting off to an interesting start . Likely to be related to the more favorable MJO phase and the forecast steep decline in zonal winds being factored into the models . So buckle up and enjoy the ride as those changes continue to feed into the outputs !

The UKMO sticking with its low tracking ese with a chance of some snow on the northern flank for mainly higher ground . The models have the same overall pattern but the detail for the UK is being complicated by the handling of shortwaves to the north and west . Not sure I’d put too much faith in any solution at present. There’s a steep acceleration in zonal winds then a big drop and of course if there is a SSW previous history suggests the models make a drama until the reversal has happened and that’s in the actual starting conditions.

It’s turgid most winters . The joys of the UK climate ! There is hope we’ll see a change in January . Zonal winds set to fall and the MJO moving into a more favourable phase amongst the things that could shuffle up the NH pattern .

It’s a messy picture earlier with those shortwaves to the nw . A north south split with some colder air making some headway . The UKMO looks like a chance of snow on the northern flank for higher ground as the low tracks ese day 5 into 6 . Some colder air then gets pulled south as that clears by day 7 .

Looks like the limpet highs days are numbered . Growing support for that with lower heights digging se into central southern Europe .

An interesting start to the day with the diving shortwave running se day 6 into 7 . The ECM now removing low heights to the north and quite different from last nights run . Overall something seems to be brewing but too early to say where it ends up!

I’ve seen more excitement at a WI bake sale ! The ECM refuses to throw a few scraps to coldies and delivers utter crud . The sole survivors of the Nostromo , the GFS and the GEM cat go into the cryochambers and wait to be discovered. Meanwhile the Alien ECM deservedly gets blasted into outer space . Anyhow after a more interesting start to the evening things turned ugly after the UKMO and the ECM sent coldies into a Falling Down scenario. Theres only so much a long suffering UK coldie can take ! Apologies for the film analogies . They’re my go to when I can’t find a lot of excitement in the models . Unless we can see Ripley and Jonesy more on the money then expect more of them ! We can but hope the forecast MJO into phase 1 can shuffle the pack and deal us a full house or better and not two stingy pairs . Better still we checkmate the PV . Talking of which my series pick to indulge in whilst we’re waiting for the Day After Tomorrow is the Queens Gambit , marvelous even if you don’t like Chess . Adios for now ....

The GFS is good for NW ! Keeps the thread going in the morning and late evening . I agree about the ECM barring the odd tease in its later output it’s been the eat your greens model . Sensible but dull !

Interesting GFS and GEM . The former develops a mini Scandi high , the latter develops a ridge to the north . The spirit of Santa lives on . As for the UKMO , the priest has been called to perform the last rites . We await the ECM with much trepidation !

It’s a bit messy but shows a pretty weak jet and it could develop more interest. The UKMO at day 6 is unfortunately very poor .

Regardless of Christmas from a coldies perspective they are meh for winter . Outside of winter months the outputs don’t tend to get as much discussion. So unreliability tends to get missed .

The ECM delivers the weather equivalent of meh ! Underwhelming throughout . A few glimpses of cooler air and some milder days . Last nights attempt to build a high to the north has imploded . I think it’s game over for any notable cold or snow this side of January . Best enjoy Christmas and accept that it’s just not happening . With the zonal flow remaining weak and the forecast MJO into phase 1 later in the month hopefully the models will show some more interest going into January .

The BOM couldn’t even win a chuck raffle . It’s recent performance was abysmal .

Oh dear another wild goose chase ! Having stolen the Xmas pressies and trashed the tree the ECM wants to make up . Thanks but no thanks ! Oh okay then one last heave of hope !

No point in trying to spin tonight’s outputs . Woeful . After a whole load of drama the models decide on the worst solution for coldies .

There’s a train of shortwave energy upstream from the main low . That looks like clearing ese . Its nothing like the ICON so we’ll take that for now !

The Arpege holds the shortwave further west . It looks very close to the ECM 00hrs evolution .

The upstream pattern is too flat . The PV reforming into one blob to the north. After the interesting GFS 06 hrs run this ICON just shot Santa !

The ICON shoots that shortwave east quickly . Game over before it even got started . Awful run so far.