nick sussex

You can’t totally discount it as that area where the main differences begin is notoriously difficult for the models . It does however look like a dogs dinner by T180 hrs .

The GFS folded like a cheap suit and put up zero resistance . Shame on it for not protecting Princess Leia ! It’s like pulling teeth to just get cross model agreement at day 6 on the pattern to the ne which plays such a crucial role in where the block goes .

Normally my film analogies come out in times of trouble . But I thought it was fitting in respect of this battle against the Atlantic . Personally I’ll always love the first Star Wars film the most . Anyhow regardless of the ICON letting stardom go to its head after my earlier plaudits the key is we saw an earlier upgrade .

We’re trying to build up our defences against the Dark Force as in the Atlantic attack . The Death Star will try and attack the weak point of any blocking . Thats why we want that straight flow and block in a better position before Darth Vader and his sidekicks attack . Its crucial to have a solid start , if you see that bulge in the flow early and the block orientating more ne sw it’s easier for Vader to break through our defences. At that point the battle is almost lost . # Save Princess Leia !

God bless the ICON at T120 hrs ! Just the start we wanted to see to the evening outputs. I’m feeling rather festive !

ICON at T90 hrs is an upgrade on its 06 hrs run . Better profile to the ne .

Excellent ECM 06 hrs control run to T144 hrs . An upgrade on the earlier 00hrs run . This might seem a very small change but this will make a difference down the line . ECM 06 hrs run to T144 hrs. ECM 00 hrs run to T150 hrs . What we want is a straight flow from the north ne , the bulge you see on the GFS is a sign that the blocking is going to start edging west and orientating in an unfavourable manner . GFS 06 hrs run to T150 hrs . Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5003233

Excellent ECM 06 hrs control run to T144 hrs . An upgrade on the earlier 00hrs run . This might seem a very small change but this will make a difference down the line . ECM 06 hrs run to T144 hrs. ECM 00 hrs run to T150 hrs . What we want is a straight flow from the north ne , the bulge you see on the GFS is a sign that the blocking is going to start edging west and orientating in an unfavourable manner . GFS 06 hrs run to T150 hrs .

In extended periods of colder weather any frontal snow tends to favour more southern areas . That’s because this correlates with stronger blocking to the north . It’s not possible to have a frontal snow event that effects the whole country without a changeover to rain for some parts unless you get an active front moving south and that’s quite rare . The last one I think was the infamous thunder snow event .

The track of lows into the UK tends to get modelled further south when you have a more stable block or when we have some wedges and a weak jet . In the current set up the block position is more uncertain and the trend is for it to move west or at least change orientation to more ne sw . Low pressure will attack the weak point and that’s currently near the UK. Once the jet lifts ne the only way to effectively suppress that south again is renewed blocking . As there’s no strong signal for that you must have any phasing of shortwave and low to the sw once the cold has had time to bed in and that needs to happen further east . The stakes are high here because there’s a good level of cold to the north and the possibility of some heavy frontal snow as the different air masses meet . These set ups are very complex with small changes making a large difference on the ground . Throw in poor data coverage over the Arctic and the behaviour of the Arctic high and it’s really going to be a nerve shredding few days for coldies . Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=5003078

The track of lows into the UK tends to get modelled further south when you have a more stable block or when we have some wedges and a weak jet . In the current set up the block position is more uncertain and the trend is for it to move west or at least change orientation to more ne sw . Low pressure will attack the weak point and that’s currently near the UK. Once the jet lifts ne the only way to effectively suppress that south again is renewed blocking . As there’s no strong signal for that you must have any phasing of shortwave and low to the sw once the cold has had time to bed in and that needs to happen further east . The stakes are high here because there’s a good level of cold to the north and the possibility of some heavy frontal snow as the different air masses meet . These set ups are very complex with small changes making a large difference on the ground . Throw in poor data coverage over the Arctic and the behaviour of the Arctic high and it’s really going to be a nerve shredding few days for coldies .

So a better looking low to the sw . Flatter and not tracking ne so that’s good then the GFS decided to go on a mystery tour . Lets take that and hope the mice are removed from the GFS super computer tonight !

We all want the best outcome for coldies and are all on the same page there. I’m relieved that the Euros are better .

The GFS and GEM ops are poor so this isn’t a done deal . The ECM and UKMO are better but the detail for the UK at this stage isn’t possible . It’s clear it could still go wrong if the shortwave and Atlantic low phase too far to the nw . I think your comments re a little clan of negative posters are unwarranted!

Anything could still happen . From major snow event , to damp squib . We really are nowhere nearer knowing what the correct evolution is . As ever more runs needed !

Yes , a straighter flow over east Greenland . This is key . We want to hang onto that straighter flow for as long as possible .

The ECM T96 hrs looks better over the Arctic than the GFS .

Don’t give up hope yet . The shortwave which forms is really the symptom not the cause and is related to the weakness of the blocking in that area . We still have the ECM to come and that was the first to develop that shortwave and flirt with danger . So particular attention today to its output.

No point in spinning the GFS and GEM ops they’re bad and need to go away and never darken this thread with those outputs again ! Coldies hopes rest on the UKMO being right . Indeed that solution is still nerve shredding but the others are past the point of no return by day 7. The stakes are high because relatively small shifts in the position of the approaching Atlantic low and the shortwave heading down from Iceland will have a huge impact on snow chances . You need any phasing to take place as far east and south as possible because the trend is for the block to orientate in a more ne sw .

This was my concern last night . It now looks likely there will be an early phasing of the low and shortwave . We just have to hope this happens further south and east . The UKMO is better but that still looks nerve shredding because a gap is likely to open up in the west Atlantic allowing some seepage of heights post day 7 .

IMBYISM is perfectly understandable given the lack of snow in the UK . However the track of low pressure is a bellwether for the strength of any blocking to the north . The ECM only dodges a bullet because it finds just enough forcing day 7 into 8. Without that the low to the sw would move ne phase with that shortwave and deepen . This would push high pressure into France and it won’t be just southern members reaching for the helpline . Relying on an Arctic high to deliver that forcing when you need it does not have a good track record . Don’t be seduced by the ECM op , it’s not a good run regardless of what it delivers later . There is no margin for error at all .

Frustrating outputs . Coldies nerves are getting shredded because on one hand there could be lots of snow on the other the ECM at day 7 is one tweak away from seeing the helpline over run . The ECM might promise the goods days 8 into 10 but really it could easily end in tears before then . It’s likely whatever happens that there will be an attack from the Atlantic , but you want that when you have stronger defenses . This drama looks set to continue as the Pacific Ridge and then Arctic High combine to ensure this latest episode turns into a mini-series . Hopefully this ends in a happy ending for coldies !

A nice upgrade . The bulge in ne Greenland is replaced by a straighter northerly flow . This makes a big difference, even if a shortwave forms it’s more likely to track more south .

Just looking at the sat pic for midday French time and noticed this long almost continuous narrow cloud band . I wonder if it’s a trough . And yes I need to get out more !

The GFS 06 hrs run gets the thumbs up from me . Very nice and a much cleaner evolution with a bit more margin for error .