nick sussex
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
nick sussex replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It’s like Groundhog Day . The same old zonal pattern with strong Iberian high repeated ad nauseam. The GEFS show a few better solutions post day ten . The ECM op does finally split up the PV day ten but still leaves a lobe over Greenland . The wait continues ...... -
Not much to report today in terms of hope for coldies barring the last frame of the ECM at day ten which shows the PV finally weakening to the north. We’ll have to see whether that survives into tonight ! We certainly need the MJO to move out of phase 5 and into 6 , the speed of that shows some divergence across the models .
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The GFS more interested in the Scandi high earlier . The models all sing from the same hymn sheet in terms of overall pattern . Pressure rises to the ne and still an angry looking PV . We await to see which one wins out . The ECM may just be a timing difference v the GFS and we are seeing the pull back of low heights from the ne and Svalbard region although the ECM does keep the more rounded PV at day ten . You generally want to see the more sausage shaped PV orientating ne sw initially.
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The overall pattern has good agreement after the weekends wet and windy weather . So the upstream troughing will dig south and there will be several attempts to cut shortwave energy se to the east or ne. Pressure rises to the ne but the question is can that troughing sharpen up enough and will we see a westwards correction. We certainly need the MJO to move out of phase 5 and into 6 as quickly as possible and preferably into 7 but the models seem less interested in the latter happening . There’s also a question mark over the amplitude of the signal.
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Back in the UK and enjoying the sunny frosty weather which sadly is going to be replaced by a spell of horrible extremely windy and wet conditions . Some damaging winds on the way unfortunately. After this spell of bad weather some suggestions we’re going to see an attempt to build pressure towards Scandi . So the digging Atlantic troughing results in pressure trying to rise to the ne of that . The question of course is can you get enough dig south and can you get the jet cutback into the Low Countries with the trigger shortwave . Still uncertainty there but it’s a lot more interesting than discussing the coming monsoon !
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I’d ignore those apps . They’re generally useless . This Atlantic low and its associated precip has been a long winded saga with the models terrified of breaching the southern snow barrier ! I would keep low expectations as both the GEM and ICON have now edged the precip further south . So just when you think there’s some north momentum another run pops up saying no!
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The T24 hrs fax chart shows the occlusion further north than the earlier T36 hrs this morning . T36 hrs to midday tomorrow . T24 hrs to midday tomorrow . Puzzling as the models so far look very underwhelming for any snow in the far s and se . The precip ahead of that occlusion is likely to be further north than any of the models I’ve seen so far . Very strange .
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Re the Atlantic low , normally once things start correcting south they don’t stop. That tends to happen though when you have strong blocking , in this instance the block is weakening . So that’s why we’ve seen these small north and southwards shifts and even at this stage given the margin for error that could be anything from 50-75 miles further north or south . It could be a total non-event or bring a decent covering to southern coastal fringes . Further north there’s that shortwave moving se and then after that further snow showers . The cold air hangs on to Friday before we sadly see the PV taking its revenge !
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The ICON and GEM 18 hrs runs are further north with the Atlantic low . This whole episode is almost cruelty to southern coldies . The precip is almost waving in the Channel and saying oh see what you could have had! For the sake of a hundred miles north or south , as is the way with these attention seeking lows. Either total frustration or elation . I think we really need to find a bit more deepening to help that ne momentum.
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Utterly nerve-shredding for those in the south and far se with the GFS op and ensemble mean taking the precip further north . The UKMO looks totally disinterested judging by the T72 to T96 hr frames . The ICON still interested . The GEM less interested than yesterday . A bit frustrating as last nights ECM 18 hrs run still missed but had taken the precip further north so that looked like a more positive trend . If you’re in the risk area you need the ECM to jump on board this morning and hope the UKMO has got this wrong . Later the Atlantic looks like moving in around late Friday so make the best of the colder conditions before the mild rainy muck arrIves. Lets hope this is just a short spell of milder weather .