nick sussex

Now that the UKMO has decided on the worst solution let’s hope it’s not right. The change between last nights and today’s run is embarrassing. As for the rest clearly the GEM is the standout but it would be miraculous if that was right . The ECM is similar to last night so a still but meh . The GFS is better with a more southerly jet . The ICON has a similar evolution to last nights UKMO . Overall the outputs get a 6.5 /10. The UKMO brought the average down and needs to do one !

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a warm front this long before .

Lukesluckybunch It looks like a slushfest . And a total mess after day 8. Maybe okay if you live on a hill further north but overall disappointing. You can never trust the depth of cold shown at longer range with this type of set up. Anyway there’s more than one option on the table and the ECM has hardly added to its reputation during this winter .

After the GFS and UKMO the ECM is a bit meh . Not a disaster but it blows up the low and any frontal snow is blown away with it . After that it’s likely to turn into a shortwave and phasing frenzy as a while bloated mess of low heights sits over the UK . Not impressed !

Ice Day I think we’ll end up with 3 different outcomes on day 7 . Thankfully there’s no way the UKMO can follow the GEM at that timeframe.

We are now beginning to see divergences upstream between the UKMO and GFS . Will be interesting to see the UKMO day 7 !

Some interesting developments so far ! The UKMO developing that wedge to the nw at day 6 . The GFS 12 hrs run further south with the Atlantic low which in this run tries to eject a separate shortwave . This helped by more forcing to the n .

Lukesluckybunch The low to the sw is further south and shallower compared to the GFS 06 hrs run so this is what we want to see .

Finally it looks like the limpet high to the south will be shown the door . So reasons to be cheerful for coldies . The models then paint a picture of low pressure close to the UK with some colder conditions trying to head south. The depth of any cold still uncertain as we don’t have a strong block. The ECM and GEM show a weak Arctic high to the ne at day 10. So an evolution to a ne flow later could occur if we can get enough forcing from that to flatten low pressure and get some more trough disruption se. Anyway things still evolving so likely more changes . The GFS is less interested in that Arctic high and its output isn’t as good for that reason . As we know from experience anytime an Arctic high is on the scene things get complicated !

I think after the disappointing winter for most parts of the UK my threshold for not moaning is output that delivers crunchy snow and not two hours of lowland slush and a BBC presenter reporting from on top of a northern hill . #ColdiesAgainstSlush .

The ECM resolutely maintaining the cold forcefield apart from the far north which could see something wintry post day 6 . The models are very frustrating in that they refuse to deliver any decent trough disruption . Day ten the low deepens over the UK . Overall very underwhelming for the vast majority of the UK .

bluearmy Not sure we’re a tough crowd. But if the first attempt fails then you’re relying on things go right even further out in terms of timeframe . The UK doesn’t have a good track record there .

We seem to be stuck in the mud . No real progress to getting anything of interest to survive contact with the T168 timeframe .The GFS for so long the output that was more interested is now least interested . The ECM op not as good as last night and the more interesting part of the output which is admittedly from a low base is marooned at post day 7 . The UKMO is a little better this morning so a crumb there. The Arctic high tends to be a drama queen and the amount of forcing to edge the pattern further south is likely to chop and change but we really do need to see a strong trend now to put more forcing on the pattern .

And so the saga continues ! The ECM reverts to its output from two evenings ago . That evolution which it dropped then was then picked up by the GFS. We do now have that old favourite the Arctic high entering the stage and we know that means . More drama ! It really has felt like pulling teeth the last week with the bloated high to the south refusing to leave the scene . Overall this evening things have improved for coldies. But a long way to go . We aren’t quite in last chance saloon time but if we’re to get some decent crunchy snow then the earlier into February the better .

The good news . The ECM gets to a decent synoptic set up by day ten for coldies . The bad news it’s at day ten and is more jam tomorrow . I think coldies are generally worn out by the winter so far and are now very cynical and dubious of any promising outputs at that range .

It’s like pulling teeth at the moment . The UKMO goes backward after the 00hrs run . The GEM is just as woeful as the 00hrs . The GFS has a brief northerly and then teases with high pressure to the ne. The upstream trough set up is causing some issues. Whilst the MJO continues to look favourable let’s hope there’s a sudden switch to a clearer route to cold and the limpet high to the sw can finally be shown the door .

Still uncertainty as to where any cold milder boundary might set up . The models are reluctant to clear the cold air to the south of the UK. Given the timeframes involved that could still change . The GEM which has the least interest is an extreme solution upstream and viewed as very unlikely by NCEP . Its very flat and ejects that developing troughing upstream very quickly .

A poor start to the evenings outputs . The UKMO the best of a poor bunch with a chance the upstream troughing is held back long enough and the Atlantic shortwave could cut se helping to pull some colder air se . Over to the ECM which hasn’t done much to fly the flag for coldies over the last few days . Hope springs eternal .....

A nice GFS 06 hrs run which shows an evolution that doesn’t require a strong block. Holding the upstream troughing for long enough whilst ejecting some shortwave energy se to support some weak height rises to the n ne . Hopefully we can see this trend gather pace across the other models this evening .

Not the most exciting starts to the day . The GFS has dropped its more interesting output from yesterday . The ECM brings the jet further south but struggles to get the cold air to clear the UK . The GEM has zero interest until day ten where it teases with a possible high developing to the ne. The UKMO at day 7 probably the best in terms of cold prospects at that stage but it rarely picks out a colder option at that timeframe which trumps the others . I think it’s best to reserve judgement on future prospects for a while yet . The MJO is still on the move into phase 7 . And there is a timelag with that.

That GFS run certainly raises eyebrows ! Certainly some more interesting op runs appearing . There is a pattern change upstream so it will take time for the models to get to grips with that . Thankfully the MJO hasn’t hit the buffers and that’s looking crucial in delivering colder prospects .

Some changes are looking likely as we head into February. I think likely helped by the movement of the MJO. The westerly flow does look to slow and the limpet high looks like being flattened with the jet heading further south . Its probably best to reserve judgement as to what to expect in terms of cold prospects as the models are only just catching onto those MJO induced changes upstream . It’s a start at least .

From a low base the ECM improves . Showing some colder conditions heading se and the limpet high being flattened . However we’re still feeding off scraps from the buffet table. We’re still stuck in the cheap seats close to the bog . That is of course an improvement from being stuck outside getting soaked . So a start but no sign yet of anything that could deliver crunchy snow . # Coldies Against Slush .

It’s a slow process to remove the limpet high or at least have it edging nw . At least the MJO has finally left phase 5 , now into 6 and hopefully it keeps moving . Its always frustrating seeing weeks of prime winter eaten up by some poor synoptics but we’ve had to endure this more often than not since I joined NW back in 2004 .

Looking at the GEFS some more interesting ensembles now showing in the ten day timeframe . I count 7 out of the 30 members .