[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch

I think because of the Euros the GFS is an outlier solution but we do need it to make a move on the 06 hrs run . 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Clearly the UKMO have low confidence in their output even though that’s two runs in a row with the more elongated low set up further south.

They have modified today’s T84 hrs fax chart .

So we should bear that in mind . There remains a lot of uncertainty.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 SLEETY

I never said it was correct but you need that onside .

So it needs to start backtracking .

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

This low is really dragging out the drama .

Last nights UKMO is still supported today by that model .

Interestingly last nights fax charts for days 4 and 5 were modified away from the raw data so clearly at that point they thought it was an outlier solution .

Todays ECM has trended south . The GFS has gone in a different direction with a woeful run .

We really need to see that start backtracking on the 06 hrs run given the timeframes involved .

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The limpet low arrives in the sw at T96 hrs. It hangs around the UK and then travels north before then shifting slightly further south at T294 hrs and then finally gets absorbed by another Atlantic low at T306 hrs !

It manages to ensure that the high pressure belt to the north doesn’t advect any cold into the UK .

The low will now be re-named the Spawn of Satan Low ! 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The limpet low effects the UK for 6 days . Jeez enough already ! 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The GFS 18 hrs run is tedious .

After some frontal snow for the north the cold is blown away with the limpet low just slowly filling and heading north .

I’m fast losing patience with the outputs . 

Can we just get to the blocking !

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The ECM blows the cold air away and then takes what seems like an eternity to clear the limpet low away .

It does develop that wedge to the nw but the bloated low and lack of cold uppers turn a very good winter synoptic as in the Iceland wedge into mutton dressed as lamb .

Looks good but a bit tough and chewy !

The limpet low finally departs and then we see a Scandi high.

The UKMO throws a  curveball into proceedings , it has little support but is only at day 4 so if it is to have any mileage we’ll know very soon .

Overall still a strong signal for some blocking to the east or ne .

So I shouldn’t be too miserable ! But it’s a shame the ECM has followed the GFS in blowing up the low .

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

What drama ! Waiting for the ECM 06 hrs control run.

Its not just about this low but the effect the evolution has on the Scandi cold pool.

The elongated low set up will keep a colder bank of air there and so down the line if we get a ne e flow that would help .

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The low at the end of the week does have a domino effect on the depth of cold left over Scandi in case the UK can tap into that relatively early .

So the more elongated low set up is preferable .

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

It’s not just where the low centre tracks but how it develops .

So it’s a bit more complicated than the simple track .

Looking ahead the signal for blocking to the n ne continues . I know the UK has some bad luck but it would be incredibly unlucky to miss out on a decent cold spell once that blocking sets up .

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Mike Poole

God no not again . The last thing we need is for another SSW to ruin a cold spell .

Anyway not a bad ECM op although these vast changes between runs means low confidence in the detail post day 7 .

The will it won’t it frontal snow remains at least initially for the far north and Scotland on the ECM .

There does seem a strongish signal for something brewing to the east or ne .

Lets hope we can have an action packed last few weeks of February.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Ali1977

Models tend to correct south when you have a block .

In this instance there’s no blocking .

We’ll see what the ECM has to offer but I think this frontal snow is looking like a far north affair at best , at least initially .

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The ECM 06 hrs control run flattens out the low which is shallower .

The ensembles show a wide variety of solutions at that point. The majority are deeper and further north .

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Ali1977

Problem is it’s already started backtracking .

You wouldn’t want to put money on even this run verifying . The GFS tends to shift slowly so that it hopes people don’t notice !

We’ll see what the Euros do this evening .

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 MJB

I’m not writing it off but the trend this morning so far apart from the GFS hasn’t been good re the low .

Still time for changes . Let’s hope the Euros u-turn .

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 feb1991blizzard

There looks to be a rapid drop in zonal winds as we head towards the middle of the month and a chance of a major SSW.

So we could still salvage something . How much fun can we squeeze into the last two weeks of February?

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 That ECM

Its frustrating as once again the outputs have generally ended up with the worst outcome .

After that we’re left chasing another pot of gold at the end of the rainbow .

Theres a lot of volatility in the later output highlighted by the difference between today’s ECM and last nights .

Something seems to be brewing to the ne . Let’s hope it doesn’t end up a stale bitter cup of tea ! 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Harsh Climate

I admire your optimism . 

Lets hope for changes with the Euros . 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Harsh Climate

You’d need a shallower low further south. 

Apart from the GFS op the rest really aren’t interested .

Things have gone backwards since yesterday evening . There is still time for some revision in the low but this mornings trend is going in the wrong direction .

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Looks like chase no 1 isn’t going to deliver .

Barring the GFS the rest blow up the low and take it too far north .

So we’re now onto chase 2 !

Looks like we’re now looking to the east and ne as a means of salvaging something .

With time running out we’re fast approaching the last chance saloon .

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The outputs remain frustrating regardless of the snow fantasy charts of the GFS and ECM.

They’re acceptable as in there is some potential but there’s no northern blocking and the depth of cold is marginal.

I think the juries still out at this time . The low which moves in from the Atlantic is still subject to revision . The ECM manages the great escape between day 9 and 10 .

We don’t have weeks to spare in terms of winter and so for this reason tonight’s outputs are scored with that in mind .

An average score of 6/10 .

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The ICON 12 hrs run is wildly different from its 00hrs run . This isn’t just the area around the UK so it’s questionable whether it’s found the right evolution now .

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I wouldn’t worry about the later stages of the GFS 06 hrs run.

The important thing is it hasn’t followed the UKMO earlier .

Ironically as the UKMO op went backwards the MOGREPS 00hrs looks better .

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Tim Bland

I am worried . I viewed ICON first then the GFS and GEM in that order and thought very nice then that woeful UKMO output followed by the ECM last.

Anyway lets hope the UKMO does another u-turn this evening .