nick sussex

January 10

5 minutes ago, The Northern Ramper said:

Tamara has just casually thrown 1978 out there as the most likely set up, there has never been such a ramp.

That’s funny because the end of 1978 31st December I was flying back from Cyprus with family into Heathrow and there was loads of snow and the North Circular was bedlam .

And I’m flying back next week from Cyprus around the time of the Atlantic low drama .

Is this a sign !

January 10

10 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Once more for those at the back;

Nothing has changed

Deterministic runs will flop back and forth within the broader envelope of possibilities but at the range we're talking about the ensembles lead the way, more specifically MOGREPS & the EPS.

Very funny but some might accuse you of being part of the band playing whilst the Titanic sunk !

Or indeed Theresa May during the infamous 2017 GE election campaign .

Anyhow I do think the ECM is a mess past day 7 and is bound to change again by the morning . We’re though getting to the timeframe tomorrow when operationals start to take precedence over the ensembles .

January 10

The ECM just shot Bambi !

Not the best of runs , there’s a lot of cold air to tap into but it plots a route to ensure it stays mainly to the north .

It all looks messy past day 7 and this looks like the NWP being frazzled by a lot going on in the background .

January 10

There’s bound to be an attack from the Atlantic later as the blocking weakens so for those a bit disappointed if the first low misses there is still likely to be the drama surrounding that to come .

January 10

Due to the models disagreeing on the Atlantic low track and frontal snow chances this evenings early meeting at the EWC ( Early Warning Centre ) has been postponed .

A meeting might take place after the ECM .

There was unfortunately an incident earlier when a placard waving Bartlett High supporter tried to disrupt the sledge contingency planning .

The police were called and made an arrest . Members are hoping the court will crack down hard and send the misery to Lapland !

Anyhow we’re not so much in the drama stage but the shear exhaustion stage waiting in the hope that this Atlantic low track can get nailed down sooner rather than later .

January 10

The GFS looks a mess later and I wouldn’t bother reading too much into its post day 8 output .

We still don’t have agreement at day 6.

January 10

ICON increases the margin for error . And we then see a slow sinking se of the Scandi trough .

With low heights and a good cold pool but let’s not forget the 500 hpa .

The earlier GEFS had a decent cluster towards the -40 level . This is true Arctic air .

Should be some major convection and also very heavy snow showers with that rarity thunder snow for those in the highest risk areas , or for coldies most fun areas ! Because of the instability and strong flow that could throw up more surprises and not just be limited to windward areas .

That’s post day 6 , the earlier northerly is brief but should still be okay for windward coastal areas .

In terms of frontal snow from the sw , ironically the bigger the margin for error in terms of cold extension the less likely that is to make much inroads at least in the earlier stages .

January 10

Just now, goosey007 said:

Please tell me you’re not on Cyprus Nick ! Right I am due to Book Tenerife today /tomorrow to go Saturday but don’t want to miss the snow I have a terrible dilemma only a coldy would understand …was hoping this was going to water down as usual but it’s ramping up ……help where I am it could still just be cold rain with snow m4 north….

Yes I’m here till next week. I’m hoping of course to return to a very wintry UK !

As for your Tenerife trip that’s a dilemma for sure . Bless you for thinking what many coldies would think . My friends call the people in here the “ snow people “ . People think I’m crazy , but my saying “ tired of snow tired of life !

January 10

Just now, Chasbrown said:

If you're happy then I'm very very happy!

OMG that’s pressure on me now ! I should have kept quiet until tonight !

January 10

When was the last time we had a decent cold spell in the heart of winter rather than when we’re chasing the last vestiges of winter and the ever increasing solar energy ?

As Captain Picard says . Make it so !

January 10

OMG this is getting very exciting .

What a lovely upgrade on the ECM 06 hrs run .

We see that nuisance high lobe over France suppressed and the shortwave looks like it will clear before the Atlantic low gets too close .

January 10

2 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

The ENS are not good, its a right outlier

There’s still a good cluster supporting the colder option upto day ten .

I really wouldn’t worry about post day ten . That’s miles away .

The main initial hurdle is around day 6 into 7 .

January 10

The GFS 06 hrs run increases the margin for error as it takes the shortwave to the nw se and away from the Atlantic low .

Be interesting to see what the latest 06 hrs ECM control run does when it comes out .

The JMA 06 hrs run removes the high over France and looks like a nice clean evolution at T132 hrs .

Not a bad morning so much anticipation for this evenings outputs .

January 10

The snowy drama doesn’t really start to day 7 into 8 which given the last week in the modeling is an eternity.

The overall pattern has decent agreement but the nose of high pressure which develops to the south ahead of the Atlantic low remains a concern .

The models seem to overcome that but I’d like to see that within T120 hrs .

January 10

The ECM and UKMO are similar at T120 hrs with the straighter flow over east Greenland and western Norway .

The GFS has the bulge !

January 10

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Much better this morning, decent length of spell - great that its all amber & green, usually shortwave and green don't go together, usually i think of red.

The northerly albeit brief is safe now . I’ve green lighted that !

The reason the shortwave isn’t on red is the models agree that there’s enough forcing to edge the pattern se at the right time .

I’ve kept the amber because of that troublesome high to the se . You generally don’t want to see that . The models manage to flatten it and usher it away .

I’m hoping the ECM will add a bit more margin for error to proceedings .

Perhaps if we ask nicely !

January 10

The outputs get there in the end .

More general agreement in the overall pattern with a brief northerly then the shortwave to the nw complicates things as this cuts off the Arctic flow .

Likely then low pressure to the sw will try and move in with some snow on the frontal boundary .

The Arctic air once again tries to edge south after that point .

The timeframe day 6 into 7 still remains a danger time as that’s the period where some interaction could take place between the sw low and low heights / shortwave energy to the ne heading s sw .

You’re relying on sufficient forcing to edge the pattern se and push that lobe of high pressure near Iberia and into France away at that point .

So no major dramas this morning so far but this isn’t a done deal just yet .

A few more runs needed there .

The colder northerly has a Green light .

The snowy frontal boundary and cold extension remains on Amber for the timebeing .

That might be revised after the ECM , hopefully !

January 9

A disaster would be a mild sw flow.

The GFS 18 hrs run hasn’t thankfully delivered that.

So onto tomorrow.

This saga is going to have its own box set soon !

January 9

I think we’re more sure now that the high will orientate more ne sw later .

Thats a trend that is agreed on . What we’re effectively hoping for is to buy as much as time as possible before that happens to get the cold south .

January 9

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Probably a good thing that the ICON 18z doesn’t go out beyond day 5 because the low heights over Greenland don’t want to clear on this run to link the Atlantic ridge with the heights that push from the Pacific.

previous run

True . It wasn’t looking good at day 5 and seemed to be going down the GFS 12 hrs run route . It would be ironic and welcome if the GFS now decided it didn’t like that !

January 9

1 minute ago, Drifter said:

Remember GFS never makes drastic backtracks. It tries to sneak the changes in gradually without anyone noticing.

That’s so true . It’s very sly but we’ve got its number !

January 9

I’d still like to see an eastwards correction on the ECM at the danger time which is day 7 .

Overall a lot going on and several major snow chances .

Still just that too far out to be sure the cards will fall right .

Let’s hope the GFS will make a move tonight . We do need that on board .

January 9

Interestingly the ECM handles the shortwave quite differently from the UKMO at day 6 .

January 9

49 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

This thread can be incredibly confusing at times, especially for those new/less knowledgable. I do wonder if much like the "Pro/Meteorologist" tag whether it might be worth a new tag for those who consistently & frequently post informative, non-biased balanced views to the forum, just as a reference point that what that person is saying can be "trusted"? It may help ease the confusion a little @Paul

Whilst the GFS deterministic run flops about like a fish out of water, the UKMO & to an extent GEM remain rather consistent. As @Tamarapointed out a few days ago the ensemble means will be next to useless in the extended due to a large amount of spread and an overall "smoothing out" of small-scale features.

I don't think the GFS deterministic is correct. I also don't think the UKMO is correct. BUT. Broadly, ensembles point towards cold conditions next week with a growing risk of high impact snowfall events as lows attempt to move in across the UK, this remains firmly routed within NWP modelling and is also consistent with the teleconnections.

“All models are wrong, but some are useful” – George Box

This on the face of it might sound like a logical idea but I think it turns the thread into one with a hierarchy amongst the vast majority of members .

Who decides who is trusted content ? This can be very subjective. And also I think would make other members feel like there’s some chase to get the trusted tag . It all seems a bit twitterish.

A member who might feel they deserve the trusted tag might get the hump that their opinion has been downgraded to just joe public minus trusted tag .

I have no issue with the Pro /Meteorologist tag , that’s fair enough .

January 9

3 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Unbelievable this place sometimes.
emotions have gone from jubilation to Wrist slashing all for a T+168 chart, 1 week away.

Marvelous isn’t it !

This place wouldn’t be the same without the mood swings between runs .

It would become very dull if this thread was just emotionless interpretation of the models .

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Posts posted by nick sussex