Lewis

I see netweather have gone with the euros, i'm going to go with the GFS and NMM with the main areas of interest for severe storms being NW parts of the UK central parts of N England. EA and the SE missing out, other than the risk of some home grown cells firing up. Lewis

Big downgrade for Thursday across East Yorkshire and N Lincolnshire, with much EA and the SE missing out on the action completely according to the NMM. As the energy transfers East and North eastwards, the precipitation is expected to weak/fizzle out maintaining it's intensity across NW areas and N Yorkshire. Lewis

I feel so privileged

Anyone want to see a magic trick?? You look at the SB cape and it shows this You look at the ML cape and it shows this And that's for 2am thursday morning, the NMM shows tomorrows (wednesdays storms) rumbling on right through the night, conditions are excellent to support storm development anywhere in England starting from tomorrow through to thursday!

Is that just for your location? I think it's about the same if not an upgrade, tomorrow certainly looks better, and the GFS is consistent with the values of energy for Thursday...

Care to share the chart please mate

Massive upgrade for NW areas on the 12z output for Thursday - Lewis We see a delay on the approaching CF from the West, with a high amount of CAPE and a negative Lifted Index and lifting this will spark storms off quite readily across NW parts of England and West Yorkshire. As we head on through the day during thursday the risk extends further east and north eastwards, as the CF pushes through the energy will transfer eastwards. Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and parts of the East Midlands looks the areas at greatest risk. Further SE across England it looks to be drier, with some home grown cells expected to fire up, as for Southern most counties some imports are likely along with Kent and the far SE later on in the day. As the cold front moves through, areas behind will destabilize fairly quickly. Dew points are expected to be around the 17-18c mark. Any areas that see prolonged sunshine will see home grown cells firing up, where CIN levels are favorable. There is also a large upgrade on storm potential for much of England tomorrow (Wednesday), more so for Eastern areas, with CAPE values around 1000 j/kg and a Lifted Index of around -4. Storms may become slow moving, giving torrential downpours, frequent lightning, and hail. Flash flooding is a possibility. A video forecast will be made shortly, and I will continue to update forecasts when models update, we are coming in to range now with the higher resolution models (NMM and NAE) which will give a better indication as to which areas are more likely to see any thunderstorm development.

Thanks for posting them charts mate. You looking forward to this weeks potential then?

I'm very happy with the 06z GFS, coming in to NMM range now. Some 900-1100 cape around the South and West/East Midlands tomorrow with a -4 LI. Could be some very slow moving torrential storms tomorrow for these areas. Looking forward to it coming in range for Thursday. Also guys, as you aware we run the UK storm chasing network, we are arranging some chases/events for tomorrow and also Thursday, if you want information or want to chase with us you can follow us on facebook for the latest information. We have a few experienced net-w members leading the way! https://www.Null Lewis

Hi guys. Downgrades again, although looking forward to the high res models when they come in range. I've done an upgrade on the weather watch, wish I had better news http://www.null/

This is my biggest worry, and is one of the major factor/player which will decide whether Eastern and NE areas will get thunderstorms, or just a damp squib. The cold front is expected to move through around 11am-12pm across NW England, N england running in to Yorkshire. The warm moist air, and high CAPE values start building around mid-day around the East Midlands/SE England. Energy and CAPE values rapidly head North. There's very little in the way of CIN, and dew points are generally lower than the other models on the GFS, against the NAE for example. So this suggests to me, that the cold front may move though quickly, leaving us with overcast conditions, and a damp squib basically, if it moves through too quickly we lose our trigger. GFS = Knife edge. So it all goes down to this CF on Thursday for Northern areas. If it goe's smoothly it'll be a cracker, but it can easily go wrong! The ideal situation is for it to stall and slowly move ENE'wards, but this would be asking too much. Lewis

Hi Matty, yep i'll be out both days, I'm kind of worried about the timing of the cold front engaging with the plume for thursday, I have a funny feeling that the cold front might want to push through a little earlier. Feel free to add me to facebook: https://www.facebook.com/eastyorksforecaster Anyone may add me Lewis

A downgrade on CAPE values on the 18z i think tonight's 18z is probably as bad it will get, it's at it's eastern most extreme, still us guys in the East and NE along with EA/SE should get some very nice storms, 900-1000 cape and LI of -4 can produce spectacular storms. The CIN showing the likely areas for convection Still plenty of time for upgrades. Lewis

here's my summary guys for this weeks potential. http://www.null/ Slight downgrades today, but it's expected, still enough energy to generate some nasty storms though! Lewis

El Gordo last year;

Hi guys, I just updated my severe weather summary http://www.null/

Only for the NW at the moment.

06Z is very good, someone above mentioned when should we start to believe, I would leave it until Tuesday 18Z, if it's showing the same, BELIEVE

Not so good for my area looking at the Custom skew-t charts. Although 1000 cape and a LI of -4 cannot be too bad I suppose?

I cannot wait to see the NMM when it comes in range (if the fantastic conditions continue for storms) Did a really basic time lapse earlier on the river hull just testing out camcorder.

18Z Wednesday 18z Wednesday night (Overnight storms for SW England) Very high CAPE values for much of S England with the energy extending Northwards during the day WOW Massive upgrade for everyone this run CAPE increasing, LI dropping Unbelievable charts! Lewis

Well after a pathetic show from England once again, I hope the 18z cheers me up!

Hi harry, At the moment I would say confidence is rather high, although the impact is low to moderate as we cannot be sure of certain factors, I agree that forecasting thunderstorms for any giving location nevermind county 4 days out is virtually impossible, but what I do believe is that the confidence of an event certainly is high, and it cannot be ignored due to the frequency in which the GFS continues to plot the very unstable conditions in the form of a plume. These type of setups can be extremely tricky to plot, as you mentioned above one of the major factors to enhance the development is the timing of the front. I issued an early weather watch because of the consistency to show the right conditions to generate thunderstorms. The CIN (Convective Inhibition) is patchy during Wednesday with coastal areas around the SE, East, SE, and NW having the values; As we head on it to Thursday it's patchy to start with with Eastern areas holding on to the values during the course of the late afternoon and early evening overnight. Will be interesting to see what the 18z brings, but I must add it's looking increasingly stormy middle part of next week Dew points are a little lower and the higher values are less widespread on the 12z, with the higher dewpoints around the SE of England, with Yorkshire and Lincolnshire hitting dew points between 17-18c during the evening. Lewis

Wednesday is looking extremely good for Yorkshire and Lincolnshire! 1000 j/KG CAPE, Lifted Index of -4 be like bombs going off! And to say it's a taster of what's to come for the next day! Lovely. 00Z is quite a thundery run with heavy showers and storms possible for a few consecutive days after Thursday. Lewis