Lewis

Anyone kind enough to post a high res NMM chart of todays CAPE AND LI for the times: 5PM & 7PM Will be sorting my subscription out tomorrow when i get paid. Thanks

Hi there, I still think the E/SE will get some storms, but I expect the initiation to be a little further North than the models expect. Hey there as mentioned on the post above, I expect the convection to initiate a little further North than the home counties, with the main areas extending around this zone; A pasting for us I reckon

if I had to put money on the areas to receive the best of the storms today I would say the following areas; East Midlands Nottingham Through to Leeds/Bradford Small chance of something further east in to North Lincolnshrie/East Yorkshire but unlikely. Goes against the models I know, but it's what I reckon.

Really wants a night time thunderstorm.

What do you reckon for England tomorrow? Could the remains of this cold front spark something off.

My netweather extra subscription ran out, has anyone got a radar return for me for cornwall? Thanks

Knowing him he'll by flying in it haha.

Is there anyone on the SW coast recording this? Would live to see some footage please

My private jet will be departing soon if anyone wants picking up on the way, destination Cornwall!

You really do love your BBC 5 days, I thought it was just when it was showing snow in winter lol. They about as accurate as my left hand at writing. How you doing anyhow?

Don't *Quote* me on this, but I think it means that although HP will be predominantly in charge throughout the period there's signals that low pressure will be close to the U.K and will try and make in roads, the GFS when I last looked wanted a drop in pressure from the North. I don't expect any low pressure really to break through and get us in one of them zonal patterns, I expect HP to be centered or close to the U.K, pressure higher the further E/SE, low pressure creeping in to the south west, this will be good as energy will be pumped through, and if we manage to hold on to a continental flow with warmer uppers could get thundery,

Yesterday and today in particular clearly shows how much energy you can have out there, and without the all important key ingredients "trigger" that energy will go wasted. Not to worry though, i'ts only May, we have plenty of time for some of the beloved spanish plumes. I'm quite happy the way the models have been/setups have been of late, we are trending towards a more high pressure dominated period of weather, and I don't think it will be long until we have that perfect setup with the orientation of high pressure with very warm uppers sourced from the near continent, and a stagnant area of low pressure close by feeding in lots of energy, that is when this board will be screaming the house down Summer has only just begun, bring them storms on!

John i've seemed to cause some confusion, call it sketchy model viewing on my part, what I was explaining about was the trough associated with an approaching cold front behind, the upper trough being one of the "triggers" to aid convection. Regards to Weather09, I was not disagreeing with you at all, if you look at my last sentence I agreed with you. No hard feelings?

Hi staple, I looked at this chart when the thunderstorms/cells fired up; https://secure.metoffice.gov.uk/lib/images/ukarea_mslp_crop_18_t+24.gif Shows the trough at 6pm this evening across them areas (slightly further West of the zone). Maybe you can forgive me for believing this was one of the factors for todays thunderstorms, after-all I only looked at one chart lol. Lewis

Far from a lecture Weather, just expressing my thoughts on the situation, apologies if i'm wrong, but the timing of the cold front/trough across central parts of the regions coincidentally formed thunderstorms/cells. I never said you was incorrect or did not "disagree with you" I just felt the cold front/trough played a part today.

Today's storms was sparked by a cold front and an upper trough moving from the east. The thunderstorms brewing up today down the central belt of Scotland and CN England was due to high dew points and surface heating along with the cold front, cooler air displaces the warmer air, pushing it upwards., allowing the formation of cumulus, and as John Holmes said earlier, turning in to towers. I agree with you that topographical uplift came in to play for these areas, but the cold front/trough aided this by forcing the air to a higher elevation.

Looking to get some storm chasing done soon and have a massive network of all the 100 users off the group "well as many as possible" and we need the storms first! Feel free to be part of the UK's growing Storm Chasing group https://www.Null

It's good to see storms firing off, I said the other day in the model thread it would happen, but I was not sure where, and at what termp we would see the cap burst, turns out all Scotland and CN England needed was a decaying cold front Hopefully in to next week we will all see some action, pressure remains high to the South, and we may bring in a nice southerly continental feed, the upper 850's want be as high, but still high enough to bring some high temperatures and of course with an area of LP close by, there's going to be some energy pushed Northwards so imports look likely, and home grown ones Lewis

One word can describe the way I feel about those in Scotland and CN England, I don't even have to say it

Very nice weather out there today, I've never felt so good than today, amazing what some warm weather brings, i've been overly using the phrase "Doesn't feel like May" throughout the past 2 weeks, finally I can put it too bed and stop moaning about the darn weather. Settled, humid and hot for many parts. Interesting charts if your looking for storm potential, very high CAPE values for many areas throughout the course of the coming 3-4 days, mainly for areas inland, with eastern coastal areas/areas close to the coast having an on shore breeze, and a cap will also be in place. What temperatures do you guys think we would need to hit for the CAP to be broken and so we can tap in to all of that energy? Could be a lightning show for the South Coast on Friday night. Lewis

Well that went tits up, egg on the face for a lot of forecasters, and I once again got sucked in to the lovely looking models/ingredients. Once again goes to show just how unpredictable, and hard the weather, severe weather/storms in particular is to forecast. Energy will start degrading as I type this now, with no energy come 6-7pm. Oh well maybe next time, we need a good old plume, and soon! Lewis Hi AJ, I agree, I was not on about the forecasters on here at all, i was talking about estofex and others and forums/groups on my facebook making out Armageddon is going to kick off lol. It's been another disappointing day sadly, as you say a window of opportunity , all be it small now, o'well time for the next chance I've had good solar output most of the day up until now where it's patchy, but it just goes to show how conditions further South can hamper development for us up North. Lewis

Pick Mr Dobson up please =D My car is no more lol...

See the little dot of 1100 cape over me, I would call that bulls eye! haha Massive upgrade, shame I only have 2 darn posts left for today.

Hi guys, Sun is out in sunny Hull I think for you guys, the best area to be positioned in is around the Gainsborough area, NE to Barton. It all depends on how far S/SW the storms develop as they will be tracking ENE (more increasingly NE) so the exit point imho is just North of the Humber out towards the end of the estuary. It could be a little further South. I'll give you guys updates throughout the day if you want with regards to what's happening, I cannot chase today my head gasket gone on my mondeo so i'm currently in the market for a new car, gutted! Best of luck, and stay safe

Temperature increasing here, at 19c currently with a dew of 15c... If it keeps climbing conditions are going to be perfect for some severe thunderstorms... Lewis