Lewis

Amazing the difference in models to the charts Coast posted. The NMM high resolution going for the energy to be greater around the East Midlands, East Yorkshire and Lincolnshire throughout the course of tomorrow, pretty much from the word go too. CAPE of 1100 and a Lifted Index of -4 could really spark some severe storms. Dew points around 13c Temperatures around 16-17c Only problem I can see is the initial cloud cover in the morning and throughout the day, may be lacking the trigger;

A lot of sharp heavy showers to come today mainly for Eastern areas and central parts of England as we head throughout the course of today. Small chance of the odd thundery downpour but showers will be slow moving at times increasing rainfall totals that we have had over the past 24-36 hours. As we head in to Wednesday it's all change again, an area of low pressure from the SW will head towards the U.K we will pick up a S/SW flow, milder upper 850s will be associated with the low pressure, we start to see temperatures rise ever so slightly around the 17-19c mark, with dew pew points in the low to mid teens, as ever with a low pressure system with this track and also angle, they will be an increase in convective energy supportive of thunderstorms. Areas greatest at risk on Wednesday is Yorkshire Southwards through to central England, East Midlands and EA. Thursday and Friday will be another similar day to that of Wednesday, in the form of heavy showers and local thunderstorms, although the UK will be truly under the influence of the low pressure as it's centered across the spine of the UK, as a result heavy showers will be much more organised and widespread, and they will be more general areas of heavy rain pivoting around the low pressure. Wednesday and Friday look supportive of thunderstorms but I expect Friday to deliver more so than Wednesday, it may be that we see the CAPE & LI values/amount of energy diminish as we come closer to the said time frames, I will keep an eye on the GFS model, and will update and make a general forecast using the higher resolution model when its in range, being the NMM from Netweather Extra. As we head in to next week it looks like we pick up a cooler Northerly flow. Friday 15Z - GFS 00Z Lewis

A lot of sharp heavy showers to come today mainly for Eastern areas and central parts of England as we head throughout the course of today. Small chance of the odd thundery downpour but showers will be slow moving at times increasing rainfall totals that we have had over the past 24-36 hours. As we head in to Wednesday it's all change again, an area of low pressure from the SW will head towards the U.K we will pick up a S/SW flow, milder upper 850s will be associated with the low pressure, we start to see temperatures rise ever so slightly around the 17-19c mark, with dew pew points in the low to mid teens, as ever with a low pressure system with this track and also angle, they will be an increase in convective energy supportive of thunderstorms. Areas greatest at risk on Wednesday is Yorkshire Southwards through to central England, East Midlands and EA. Thursday and Friday will be another similar day to that of Wednesday, in the form of heavy showers and local thunderstorms, although the UK will be truly under the influence of the low pressure as it's centered across the spine of the UK, as a result heavy showers will be much more organised and widespread, and they will be more general areas of heavy rain pivoting around the low pressure. Wednesday and Friday look supportive of thunderstorms but I expect Friday to deliver more so than Wednesday, it may be that we see the CAPE & LI values/amount of energy diminish as we come closer to the said time frames, I will keep an eye on the GFS model, and will update and make a general forecast using the higher resolution model when its in range, being the NMM from Netweather Extra. Friday 15Z - GFS 00Z Lewis

Heavy showers with a rumble of thunder yep, conditions are not favorable for anything organised, or severe, so the odd isolated thunderstorm is possible, but thundery shower more likely.

Possibility, minimum cape and a LI of 0, some ML CIN too

East Yorkshire, South Yorkshire and N Lincolnshire

Wednesday looking increasingly supportive of conditions for thunderstorms/convection. Came across this guys thought i would share it;

And we've had lower minimums in June! I don't know what people expect temperatures to be, but with the 0-+2 850 line across us or close by, and precipitation, heavy and slow moving temperatures are going to drop and be on the low side, regardless of what time of the year, if it was in January we would be looking at snow over the hills falling to lower levels due to evaporative cooling. We've had a very dry period with temperatures above average, now it's the turn of the rain, let's hope the next pattern includes the keyword "thunder". Lewis

Hi Reef, The NMM has the band of precipitation much further South on the latest run, with the heaviest of the precipitation staying across Lincolnshire Southwards, with us perhaps escaping the heaviest and more prolonged precipitation. Lewis

Looking at the models it suggests we are going through a period of considerable change to what we have had of late. It's this type of weather that gives me muffled ears, and headaches "lower pressure", so I hope it does not last long. Over the past few years we seem to have a pretty warm start to may, with some hot temperatures , but an Atlantic, more zonal pattern soon reemerges and continues in to the middle of June. Will be interesting to see the pattern of the Jet when we enter mid- June early July, the last 2 months have panned out just like May/June 2007, I just hope we don't get a July like it! Lewis

So after a wrong dry sunny start, you ended up getting the best of the storms today? I think i'll be real negative from now on and hopefully i'll see something, every time i'm upbeat i get nada. lol

For those of you around my neck of the wood there's a large shower pushing towards us now, it's lost a fair bit of it's intensity over the past 20-30 mins or so, although it will still pack a downpour that I bet if it continues. Only doubt in my mind is the track of it, it's got an ever so slightly NE element to it's path, so the south bank of the Humber may only get clipped, heaviest of it could even just miss me to the North. Those in Beverley will get it full on. Interesting there's a little cell/hook shape that's formed underneath the main part of the precipitation, keeping an eye on it, this little cell if it maintains it's intensity is more likely to affect Sprunehorpe running NE through to Barton and then across the River too East Hull. Lewis Edit * Will be interesting to see what it does when it hit's the Humber, remember the little convo we had storm chasing dell when I said I was going to do some research about the Humber and the impact it has on precipitation.

Hope you get something Jane, Very muggy/humid here on the East side of Hull, expecting a light to moderate shower soon. Does anyone feel like it's just ready to go bang, but for some reason it does not want to, I remember pre-2006 almost 8/9 times out of 10 when we had a sustained period of high temperatures/heat and humidity it would normally go out with a bang, I suppose it's still early in the season and London/SE have done very well for storms this year up to now, we just need a plume, and soon Lewis

The NMM 06z continues to show some extremely heavy downpours and quite organized for N Lincolnshire and East Yorkshire later this evening and in to the early hours; Certainly ingredients for convection

It's amazing what a bit of time and patience does isn't it.

Blimey give it chance to kick off, you quoted my forecast at 9:30 an hour and half before I expected convection to take place, i bet your one of those that sits in front of the TV yelling at the national forecast lol.

Some nice showers in the channel south of cornwall, steadily pushing ENE. Could be some action soon for the South Coast

Fixed it mate, could you delete your quote please as there was some small errors in the forecast that I made "typos" I have edited it now. thanks mate

Morning guys. Here's my take on things with storm chart. My Summary for today's thunderstorm risk After a bright start to the day for many areas, Eastern and South Eastern areas in particular, as we head through the day they will be an increasing risk of showers for many areas, we start off with Central Northern England, Pennine regions and Yorkshire and Northern Lincolnshire around 11 am this morning, showers will be heavy for these areas and organized for central parts of these regions although thundery activity will be limited, there is a small chance of these areas experiencing thunderstorms although energy is limited for these areas, with the majority of the energy running from the Wash across to North Wales southwards. Around 11am across Wales showers will start to form, becoming organized as we head in to mid day-early afternoon, showers cropping up just about anywhere east of Wales pushing eastwards, showers will become more widespread and thundery, with some potent cells for these areas. Areas greatest at risk is the West Midlands, with the risk extending eastwards across central southern parts, and later in to the East Midlands, EA and also the SE of England. For EA and the SE thunderstorms will be rumbling until sun fall. There is a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms for these areas. During these storms the risk of torrential rain and flash flooding is very likely, along with frequent lightning. Regards Lewis

I would love another event like Summer 2005 here in Hull, here's what a guy filmed in Hull from a block of flats, at the time it was the most violent thunderstorms i've ever witnessed up until going to Cornwall a year later staying in saint austell in a tent having to get through 5 hours of lightning where they was over 3,000 confirmed cloud to ground strikes in that part of Cornwall overnight! Thunderstorm over hull 2005

Seems to be convection happening up here, temp of 21 with a dew of 17c feels really sticky, it couldn't could it??

Well that turned out to be a big non event again lol. How long do we have to wait until mother nature plays ball and give's us all a good thunderstorm hammering! I have a funny feeling for many this heat we've had for many days is going to go out without a wimper, reminds me of winter when we have a break down and it's rain instead of snow haha. Come on give us some storms on Wednesday please!

omg it's absolutely........................ sunny and hot here. I want a storm

It';s started, nice cell near nottingham, and them cells in the SE have fired up much further east than I expected. Can someone post me the NMM CAPE & LI chart please for 7pm tonight. thanks

Wind Convergence just North of the Wash into Lincolnshire and Yorkshire. Temps around 25 too 26 with a dew of 12/13c Would expect some cells to start popping up around these areas soon, around 4pm.