Lewis
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Posts posted by Lewis
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Storm porn for the UK!! I fear this will be downgraded and shunted eastwards in the coming days, nice to see some half decent charts which would translate to some beefy storms knocking about.... I'm off for a week from Tuesday so I'm hoping this will be maintained in the outputs - upgrades preferable!!
Fingers X Liam.
I have a gut feeling though after the 18z upgrade things may head East on the up coming runs, there's already a slight shift eastwards on the 18z. Part of me think's we'll nail it, but looking at that Atlantic, I don't trust the bleeding thing lol.
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Not good mate... I put 2 & 2 together as I think your wearing a rugby shirt?
Apart from that trauma (LOL) a good effort on the video forecast, the only minor criticism I would make is that I enjoy your forecasts when you are using model data and charts on screen. But thats just a personal thing and you were testing out your new camcorder.
Yep, wearing a rugby shirt "Hull F.C.
And I think I prefer video forecasts with charts too after just watching myself then! haha
How's this for a chart;
Then the ML Cape
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Well it's pouring with rain one more! Not as heavy as last night but the rain is becoming more organised and persistent, this isn't good news given the flooding already affecting some places.The lakes are full to the max with rivers flowing through fields and creating small lakes.
Gonna have nightmares now after seeing Lewis for the first time doing his video forecast....
I have 2 front teeth missing (rugby).
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Hi guys.
I did a quick video forecast, might not be any good but I wanted to try something different and test out the new camcorder
Any feedback would be appreciated, and yes I know I do a lot of erm erms..lol
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18z is a rolling, will we see a plume, or will we see a Northerly doom n gloom
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Actually, the 12z ECM doesn't look so good as 12z GFS or previous ECM runs ... too much of westerly component to the surface and mid-level flows for my liking.
Lost the link to the ECMWF but from what you just said does that mean the ECM has the LP further east with the angle giving way to a more WSW surface and mid level flow?
If that's the case not good, and this would probably mean areas further North could miss out on the action, with the SE/EA and Kent in the firing line?
Lewis
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I think we will actually pull this one off guys, comparing it to seeing snowmageddon charts in winter like Nick said is a little ott , it's a completely different scenario, entirely different setup, purely different ball game, although I can see where he is coming from with regards too being let down.
Don't get me wrong thing's can and possibly will change, but the models have been hinting at this for some time now, more especially so the GFS, hence I reckon it will happen.
We have very warm, moist, air from the South, and a stagnant low pressure system, it could literally be like bombs going off.
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12z is a cracker, if that comes off, you'll be seeing me setting up Poole as base camp, then following it all back up to Hull, getting a quick cuppa down me and watching it all again.
can only hope?
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Just looking at my station history..
Yesterday it recorded a rain rate of over 1,000mm an hour.. insane
Blimey think you need to get your station fixed or remove it from under the tap
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Well today's set of models have been dire RE storm potential over the next 5 days or so, possibly longer.
Was sign of pressure starting to build from the South, and a possible plume from the near continent with widespread storms, and guess what, yep you guessed it, we end up with a Northerly! Lovely......
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Well today's set of models have been dire RE storm potential over the next 5 days or so, possibly longer.
Was sign of pressure starting to build from the South, and a possible plume from the near continent with widespread storms, and guess what, yep you guessed it, we end up with a Northerly! Lovely......
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Had continuous spells of sharp showers/rain during today, was watching the drovers (rovers) get beat on sky
and they had a right downpour that's 1 mile away from me if that (the stadium) they had hail the lot, but here, drizzle.Heavy pulses of rain will continue across many areas tonight, you can just see how much energy and moisture there is out there, as no matter how hard that precipitation trys to fizzle out this side of the pennies there's energy pumping right through and maintaining a permanent squall line here.
MAD!
Lewis
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is the LP moving ene or east I can't tell lol
It's gradually pushing away NNE'wards.
Plenty more rain to come from this system for NW and Northern areas.
Lewis
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Can't see anything popping up really for this neck of the woods, I think the LEVEL 1 from ESTOFEX is because of the sheer and unstable set up we are under the influence of.
On top of that, the tornado in Spalding yesterday has probably tipped them to put out a warning.
I may be completely wrong, but I cannot see anything interesting popping up today, I cannot even see some storms popping up. If there is though i'll be the first to hold my hand up, after chasing them of course
Lewis
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Upgrade on tomorrows storm potential on the latest GFS for the NE of England.
Areas from the Humber Northwards to Northumberland look favorable. 500-800CAPE with a LI (Lifted Index) of -3, could trigger some nice thunderstorms.
Will await the NMM 18z update tonight, won't be able to make another post tonight as I've used my 10 up for the day, so will post tomorrow AM.
Lewis
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What a disappointment, all that energy, and all them storms wasted out in the North sea, out by about 40-50 mile!
Still caught a small storm, I picked up 3 or 4 strikes on the camcorder, couple of rumbles of thunder, and that was about it.
I'm pining for a proper plume setup!
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I can hear thunder in the distance, but theres a layer of low level murk so it just looks overcast. The radar suggests a storm to the west over the Gilberdyke/Market Weighton area and another just about to hit Lincoln which is heading in this direction.
Theres nothing to see though due to that murk.
Its very humid mind you, currently 17.4C with a dewpoint of 17.0C. Feels pretty sticky despite not being too warm
Thanks multi cell.
Reef me and dell are positioned at Paul, what would you do, should we wait for the Lincoln one or head west towards gilberdyke.
If it heads towards hedon we might end up there.
Wind direction has changed over the past hour here. Was a ese now more Sse.
Lewis
Cheers
Lewis
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Out chasing having problems with my net could someone be kind enough and post me an image of hu9 4rx
Can't access my netweather extra. Thanks
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How ironic the Lightning seems to be just skirting around the coasts of Kent. You couldnt make it up! I seriously believe something has really changed with our summers. Its just not what it used to be when weve had 5 pretty rubbish summers and now were on our way to the 6th poor one so far unless things rapidly change in July!
Not ironic at all, it's just the way the weather works at times.
Big storm heading up now, off out to chase it... footage in HD for you guys to come later
wash mate
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Storm number 1 heading towards us from the SSE of us, it's heading NNW. Pick the kiddies up from school, then go pick up Dell and head out for some chasing! Going to get pretty active soon
Few breaks in the clouds now with some brightness trying to appear.
Lewis
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Dont think that stuff is heading anywhere near our shores im afraid
The best way to find out whilst using the netweather extra radar is adding the wind vectors overlay, I look at the 850 and 700hpa wind vectors, and it adds it as a nice clear overlay to the latest radar.
Having just looked at the radar myself, it appears that the showers are moving in a NNE direction, the Easterly element means that they are more likely to be Kent clippers if they maintain their intensity rather than hit directly and move across a wider part of Kent and the SE.
For those that are worried about the cloud cover hampering the thunderstorm development I really would not worry. The remains of the overnight system is moving away now, temperatures have raised ever so slightly along with the dew point. Current temperature is 17.4c here with a dew of 16c.
Conditions are very favorable, with unstable air, moist, and very warm air sourced from the near continent I think Eastern and SE areas will do very well later this afternoon in to this evening, we may not have the trigger at the moment in the form of the surface heating, but the other ingredients many of us including me that has failed to notice up until now is the other ingredient which is the "Lift" in the form of a sea breeze.
I'm very confident things are really going to kick off for SE and Eastern areas this afternoon and early evening.
Lewis
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Amazed people have failed to notice the new warnings from the metoffice
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Mornin lewis, unless we can get rid of some of this murky rubbish during the day were really goin to struggle. the potential is there for a lot later in the day it as to be said,
Morning mate,
Hit me up on facebook later if it gets interesting, I have a feeling most of the action will be to the SE of me, across NE Lincolnshire exiting around Spurn point/mouth of the Humber, either way I'm hoping to get some footage today on the new camcorder, I am fairly confident they will be breaks in the clouds later this afternoon.
Just done a quick video on current conditions;
*IGNORE the washing powder guy* lol
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Good Morning,
A risk from ESTOFEX today for parts of the South, and then SE, EA and parts of Yorkshire/Lincolnshire for severe thunderstorms.
A rather large downgrade on this mornings NMM on the CAPE and LI, it's not as widespread, although for some areas there is sufficient CAPE to produce severe storms, with a Lifted Index of -3 to -4.
... France, Benelux, W-Germany and parts of UK ...Apparently, the intense and progressive vorticity lobe and attendant synoptic boundaries dictate convective initiation (CI). The mid/upper streamline pattern becomes supportive for prolonged/deep lift over NE France/Benelux, with diffluent pattern just ahead of the main trough axis. In fact, unusually strong diffluence is expected over Benelux during the evening hours in response to a negative tilted trough evolution over UK.
Potential will boil down to whether or not we can get that sun out with breaks in the cloud, for areas in the East and SE later this afternoon if this happens convection will spark off some storms quite quickly.
Favored areas are EA and the SE. Later in to the evening the risk extends North Eastwards in to N Lincolnshire, East Yorkshire.
Lewis
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and they had a right downpour that's 1 mile away from me if that (the stadium) they had hail the lot, but here, drizzle.
Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 20th June 2012>
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Humber
Morning
00Z continues the thundery plume for Thursday, a wider area of stronger CAPE and LI for the South, Both East and West Midlands.
I like the 00Z because it has things further West extending in to the Bristol Channel and areas around that location, where as yesterdays 12z and 18z in particular had it further East.
So good runs this morning, as everything is a little further Westwards, fingers X this continues as we head closer to the time frame, we all know how setups like this quickly become a non event with the energy passing to the North and East of us. If this continues we have less margin for error
Yesterdays
Todays
As for today, they could be some heavy showers developing across NE parts of England pushing Southwards affecting much of Eastern Coastal counties, with the risk extending to EA and possibly parts of the East Midlands later this afternoon, the sun will get going across Eastern and NE areas around Lunch time, so this will aid development/convection.
Lewis