Lewis
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Posts posted by Lewis
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Below could be the problem for storms not triggering off for many parts tomorrow
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Blimey, going to be very humid tomorrow!
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With tomorrows solstice dawn looking like a no show (hopefully obscured by thunder clouds
)I took the opportunity to 'bank' this mornings Sunrise over Birmingham city centre
Remember when we were young we shone like the sun!
Lovely video there mate, will have to get the sunset on a time lapse on my new camcorder tonight., you chose the right song for it too, you'll av me getting the Pink Floyd albums out tonight now haha.
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Tomorrow East Midlands, EA, Lincolnshire and Yorkshire will take a battering of some severe storms I reckon, just looking at the charts now, everything spot on, CAPE and LI (SB and ML) 850 lapse rates, temperatures, dew points around 16-17c! Looking sexier than a blonde on a night out.
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That's not strictly true Lewis as the NMM MLCAPE chart I posted above shows a good finger of potential creeping up through my location and heading North at around 0400 hrs with 300 to 400 J/kg of energy and -1 Li. Not going to set the World alight but still not bad and just in the darkness hours. It might keep those druids on their toes!!!!
Hi Lewis....you're looking at the wrong CAPE charts to make that judgement mate...Any convection tonight is likely to be elevated in nature, and the MLCAPE (multi-layer or mixed layerl CAPE) and multi layer LI charts are very promising for a good swathe of central & southern UK....Not had chance to check the moisture profiles yet, so until I have a butchers at these, I can't comment on whether the profiles show saturation throughout the atmosphere (saturated profiles from my understanding would not be conducive to elevated storm development)
Hi guys sorry your both right, I failed to look at the ML CAPE & LI charts, I rarely look at them, when I do look at the MLCAPE & LI charts it's because there's a good amount of SBCAPE about, a fair number of times i've rarely seen some ML CAPE without some SB cape, tonight/tomorrow mornings scenario is entirely different and I was looking at the wrong charts
After looking at the MLCAPE charts and Lifted Index, there is sufficient energy though to produce elevated storms embedded in the system moving up during the early hours of tomorrow morning.
My apologies for misinforming people.
I'm storm chasing tomorrow if anyone want's to join me let me know just reply to this message, i'll be around East Yorkshire& N Lincolnshire, will pick up on the way.
Lewis
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I think it's going to be a case of watching the radar tonight and keeping an eye on your local conditions.
Having just looked at the latest NMM, it's having none of it, with minimal cape and a positive lifted index.
I suspect the rain tonight to be heavy possibly thundery in nature, but looking at what the models have to offer I find it very hard to see past the limited potential.
NMM CAPE & LI chart
The latest NMM also has the precipitation much further West, pushing in from the SW moving through to the Bristol channel, South wales, and the West midlands, these are the areas to focus on.
The rain will edge North Eastwards staying at it's heaviest West of the Pennines but as it moves through to NE parts it will quickly loose it's intensity.
During tomorrow afternoon and in to early evening there is the potential for some severe thunderstorms across parts of the East Midlands, EA & running North in to Lincolnshire and possibly East Yorkshire. Something I'm keeping an eye on.
Lewis
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At the minute then Sunday looks like the best day for us!
It's actually looking pretty poor for thunderstorms for our neck of the words after yesterdays runs all the focus is to the South of the UK, it can re-appear as quick as it vanished on the models, but the GFS has been bang in form lately.
Thursday for example shows the energy south around the Wash/Southern Lincolnshire and the East Midlands, this is at low resolution, come the 6pm chart for Thursday it shows came CAPE values over us, around 200-300 cape with a LI of 0 to -1.
it's going to be a case of the NMM and NAE (higher resolution models) to determine the thunderstorm potential.
Lewis
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Any chance of these night time storms on Thursday coming up this next of the woods?
No mate, small chance during the day though but the Wednesday night/Thursday early hours won't affect us.
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New camcorder test. just need a storm now but below is a taster of what quality of videos i'll upload for you guys
money well spent. -
That's one of the most dead on charts for me I've seen! No doubt the centre will shift somewhere else though.
20/21C very hot and humid?
just shows how rubbish this month has been for warm weather!Some of the chart's I'm seeing are looking pretty reasonable, the rainfall forecast map on the MetO site looks pretty good for parts of the south into the early hours.
Seemed hotter than that, or maybe it was the virus sweating out of me haha.
Just done a test on my camcorder, very pleased with it, i'll upload the test video soon, really looking forward to using it as i'll get some amazing quality footage. Just got a 64MB HD SDCARD it's writing at 40mb per second.
Lewis
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Very hot and humid here in hull, just been for a trip to brid and Hornsea, some towers about and they continue to pop up maybe something later?
Just invested 250 quid on a full hd 50x zoom Panasonic cam corder has time lapse on it so when I get home I'll pop to the Humber and hope I can get some of the towers rising.
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Well rather selfishly I'm keeping my fingers crossed for any potential during the late hours of Wednesday/early hours of Thursday as if it does happen, it looks good for my part of the World. In the meantime it looks to be quite quiet generally with just that blip for the South tomorrow night and onwards for a few hours:
Still. if it's changed that much overnight, it can always change back again and how many times do we keep saying don't follow consecutive runs??!!!!!!!!
Fingers crossed for you Coast, things can change/develop quickly. For example around 5-6pm here yesterday after a pretty clear and bright day, massive towers cropped up, went to the humber view point to get a good view, and they was not a cap they just kept growing and growing, sadly no storms.
GFS is what I would call a rollercoaster of potential
Lewis
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Can we keep the potential for wednesday night/thursday... i would expect that as we have a wider gap for a show this time then we usually do, then we should see something quite widespread and active, wider gap i mean less risk of losing the potential!
One would hope.
But after looking at the latest GFS this morning, Friday, Saturday, and Sundays potential has just vanished.
Lewis
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Can anyone recommend a decent HD camcorder, looking to invest in a new one for storm chasing seeing as though this week looks pretty active.
lewis
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Having looked at the GFS this morning high pressure seems no where in sight in all honesty, we are under the influence of low pressure throughout the period right through to the end of June.
It's expected really giving the location and pattern of the jet.
What worries me is that later this month the Jet positions it's self to a similar position to that of the June and July 2007 Floods.
At the moment it looks as if much of Southern and Central England (South Eastern parts mainly) will experience systems bringing heavy rain, the resolution becomes much lower on the new few frames but the tendency for the Jet is to position further North from the above position across the Eastern spine of the country.
On the 850hpa & SLP chart below it shows low pressure established once again.
Certainly a messy outlook, with plenty of precipitation about, some of it very heavy.
Lewis
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Looks like overcast and showers is the order of the day today for many parts, very little in the way of sunshine, with low surface temperatures storms are really going to get going this afternoon, having looked at the latest NMM there has been a slight downgrade in energy, and there's very little CIN out there.
So for some areas the chance of the odd storm is possible, but today is more likely to be a case of sharp showers with some organised spells of rain, with the odd rumble of thunder, and of course the odd flash of lightning for eastern and Northern areas.
I had a feeling a lot of cloud cover would hamper things today.
Lewis
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After a pretty stormy day yesterday today will start off exactly the same, with thunderstorms possible across much England.
With low pressure in charge, with weak to moderate Shear for Eastern areas along with moderate CAPE values and a negative lift index there is a risk of thunderstorms once again, some of these may be severe, but a low risk at the moment.
We will have showers forming over the West Midlands from the word go tomorrow pushing North Eastwards in to central areas and from mid morning to early afternoon moving across Lincolnshire and Yorkshire.
At the moment the Pennies and areas East of the hills are at the highest risk of seeing heavy showers, containing lightning, hail, gusty winds, and torrential rain, with a combined low risk of thunderstorms becoming severe enough to birth a Tornado.
You can see the chart below, which shows the area of low pressure which is centered to the East of Ireland. Isobars rather tight giving some strengthening winds particularly for North Wales and Western parts of England, during cells the winds may become very gusty at times.
The rule for today is for pretty much the same as yesterday showers moving from the SW to the NE.
As you can see below there is sufficient CAPE & LI values across the Midlands, SE England, EA, and North in to Lincolnshire and Yorkshire to aid the development of thunderstorms. Values typically around 500-600 /kg of CAPE with a Lifted index of -1 to -2.
Below is the precipitation rate chart also taken from the NMM model, this shows where the precipitation tomorrow at 11am is most likely to be.
As we head on through to the afternoon showers will become increasingly heavy, organised and more widespread, ingredients became very favorable for thunderstorms across large parts of the East and N England. Below is the CAPE & LI values at 1pm today.
As seen in the above chart, the energy potential continues.
Temperatures typically around 15-18c for Eastern and South Eastern areas.
With dew points around 11-12c with 13c possible in some locations
The 18z from yesterday shows the higher total convective accumulations of rainfall further North across the central belt of N England/ North East England & North Yorkshire, of course this is no certainty, and these charts should be used as guide, but they are taken from the higher resolution model, so verification at this time frame is pretty accurate it got yesterday spot on.
Surface temperatures vary form 12-15c for the far North of England, as we head South in to Yorkshire values of around 15-16c are expected, then as we head further South in to EA and the SE/Home counties the surface temperatures are expected to be around 20-24, which coincides with the NMM cloud cover chart that shows breaks in the cloud more likely across the SE so surface temperate are expected to be on the increase for any areas that experience breaks for a sustained period of time.
Yesterday the NMM did show vast amounts of cloud cover, although here in Hull it was pretty much breaks in the clouds some long breaks too, in between thunderstorms, so the surface temperature chart is all dependent on this. Come morning when the sun comes up it could be a different story for many parts and surface temperatures may be much higher.
My forecast/summary for today
Tomorrow will start on a overcast note for many western areas, further East and SE a hazy start with cloud cover, lifting as the morning heads on.
Showers will readily develop across SW England, Wales and the West Midlands before heading North Eastwards.
Some of these showers will be locally heavy, containing Hail, Lightning, & Torrential downpours, with a low risk of a funnel/tornado.
For more North Western and Northern areas of England and Wales they will be more in the way of cloud, as precipitation will continue during the early hours of this morning, becoming patchier as we head on in to the late morning.
Around 11am-12pm showers will start to form across these areas becoming heavy, frequent and more organised. Thundery for Eastern areas.
I have done a risk map below to show the areas I think will see the thunderstorms based on the current model output, of course this can all change come the 00z and 06z GFS/NMM but I doubt it very much.
So all in all a carbon copy of yesterday.
Lewis
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Amazed i've got some nice strikes/footage.
Here's a few stills, will process the rest later, and upload the video;
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What a storm that was, round 2 soon, just watching the footage from that storm, poor visibility though, then i'll be off out for the next one.
Got some footage around 8-12 bolts.
Some lovely mammatus and cloud structures
Stills
Will upload video later
as it looks like i'm about to see another storm. Lewis
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AND WE HAVE IGNITION THUNDERSTORM AND FROM MY CAR =P CHASING HERE WE COME. THIS IS A BIG ONE!
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Most of the activity is the very far north of Norfolk and out to sea. Very little elsewhere and this was meant to peak time. Has something gone wrong?
The risk is to extend North and North Eastwards as we head through this afternoon and in to early evening mate.
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Am I ok to post netweather extra radar screenshot's on here?
Regards
Lewis
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Morning guys,
I was going for Lincolnshire purely because in these situations they do very well.
Lately when it's looked promising form my neck of the woods further south in to Lincolnshire 9 times out of 10 get it head on. Whilst I think many areas in the East will see thunderstorms today, sadly it's going to be a case of some areas missing out, as it boils down to where the precipitation forms and the flow from the low pressure as this is going to be the driver.
I think the Humber Southwards looks very good for thunderstorms today, North bank of the Humber in to East Yorkshire/N Yorkshire have conditions but I have a feeling the main precipitation areas is Lincolnshire Southwards.
I've been wrong plenty of times before, most of the time when I've said East Yorkshire will take a battering, for Lincolnshire to then get it instead, I hope i'm wrong this time, you never know, a bit of reverse psychology might actually lead to me seeing a decent thunderstorm
If I was supacell, I would position myself around the Gainsborough area, and be ready to head South in to Lincoln. I'm on standby waiting for something to kick off, and the second it does i'll be on the A15 heading south, as much as I hate that road!
If it kicks off here, it'll be a bonus!
Stay safe guys, could be some very severe weather out there today.
Lewis
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money well spent.
just shows how rubbish this month has been for warm weather!
Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 20th June 2012>
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
I took a screenshot for you guys;
Lewis