Lewis
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Posts posted by Lewis
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Flash Warning of Severe weather ** Issued By Lewis Dobson **
Heavy showers and thunderstorms will become more frequent throughout the course of this afternoon, and into this evening, continuing to around dark for Eastern areas.
The main area of focus throughout the course of this afternoon is the East Midlands, Lincolnshire, the rest of Yorkshire and Pennine areas, with East Yorkshire and Northern Lincolnshire at great risk of some severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening, with localized flash flooding a distinct possibility.
Low surface pressure and a slack flow, coupled with high cape values & surface heating will all combine for favorable conditions for moderate to severe thunderstorms.
These showers will be slow moving, as the low pressure is filling in, meaning a slacker flow. Hail, torrential rain, and lightning is a risk during any of these showers.
Showers will become widespread for Eastern and NE parts of England over the next few hours, with the early evening/rush hour proving the crucial time for the heaviest of these storms.
Regards
Lewis
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Everything is way south of here again. Can anybody who knows advise if areas such as the N Midlands & N England are going to join in? I can't go all the way down to London to chase
Have the 6z wind convergence charts come out yet?
MASSIVE upgrade on the latest 06 NMM. Shows CAPE of around 400-500 even at around 9-10pm for east yorkshire tonight. And around 2-4pm is when CAPE is at it's highest a good 600-900 cape with a LI of -2 to -3! bring it on =D
Today for me with severity of storms, East Midlands, EA, Lincolnshire, East Yorkshire/Humber with another area of showers/risk for NE England around 3-4/5pm today.
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Suns coming out here, starting too bubble up some clouds, fingers x for this afternoon.
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Per my video forecast last night, looking at the radar I couldn't have gotten it anymore accurate, makes a change lol , as expected activity across the Bristol channel, running in to the west midlands, north wales, and some showers across the south west.
Going to be some lovely cloud formations out there today, and some lovely sharp thundery showers, much more slow moving today, so localized flooding is a distinct possibility for areas that get the slow moving heavy showers/storms.
I reckon central pennine areas, Lincolnshire, East Yorkshire, and the NE is the main areas today, with some heavy cells likely for the SE/Kent and around EA later this afternoon into early evening.
Enjoy guys, stay safe if your out chasing, and if you get some pictures/footage, or have some from past storms, can you send me the details on the storm/location and pictures etc, as I'm going to put a compilation video together so everyone can see
regards
lewis
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Well done matey, nice video although I was a little worried that all of the forecast PPN avoids Cumbria lol typical but as you mentioned in the video showers can and will crop up anywhere. Still pretty hopeful
Thanks mate, kind of waffled on a bit on that video though, infact I do on most I don't know when to shut up haha.
But yeah your right, I expect shower activity to be quite widespread tomorrow, going by the NMM I wouldn't expect the heaviest of the cells to be across the South and South East like today and over the past few days, but then again, the current trend and tendency of inconsistency between the GFS low res against the NMM high res with regards to the placement of the energy (higher cape values) is quite disturbing.
The GFS low res distributes it on a larger scale and has it placed much further South, then you look at the NMM and it's smaller areas of energy, less distributed also..
Suppose it's going to be down to what happens, happens.... tomorrow once again it's radar watching.
Do you think if I invented some kind of radar watching glasses I would be a rich man? could market them on here lol.
Lewis
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Apologies for the voice at times, it's kind of croaky, at least it's softened my 'ULL accent.
Nothing brilliant but hope you like it
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Just done a real quick little video forecast, dunno if it's good enough like, but talking about where I think the storms will be tomorrow. Can't beat the good old michael fish ay!
Will post the video soon
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After a wet start this morning continuing to early afternoon the weather soon cleared up this afternoon/early evening and is quite settled and pleasant out there, dare I say we managed to get a little sunshine today!
Do you guys want me to do a quick forecast? on the upcoming thunderstorm potential.
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Latest outlook from Michael Fish - unsettled all the way...
Watched it 10 mins ago, fantastic video forecast once again.
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The new rainfall feature is restricted to lite and full subs currently
Do you not check your e-mails anymore mate?
Lewis
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Doesn't look interesting away from southern England and and South Wales to me.
Don't know what your looking at then =D
Just been looking over the models in general (GFS) etc..
Now onto the custom skew-t charts, and there's some energy out there tomorrow, here's the Hull one, and I've taken one for Leeds for you below also
Leeds
Lewis
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A very unsettled period coming up this week, after a mostly dry and bright day for many areas yesterday, the change will be brought about by a large area of precipitation associated with an approaching low pressure system off the western coast of Ireland.
If you look on the latest fax chart you can clearly see the messy pattern that we have, it's a continuing theme throughout the week but I have a feeling tomorrow afternoon and early evening may bring a few surprises to some people looking for electrical activity/convective weather.
The latest fax chart illustrates the occluded front brought about a low pressure system
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVE89.png
It's very possible that we may see some thunderstorms embedded as the occluded front moves through, it happens, but it all depends on a few ingredients/key features, what we'll see tomorrow is a warm occlusion, the air mass overtaking the warm front is warmer than the cold air ahead of the warm front and rides over the colder air mass while lifting the warm air.
Behind the occluded front we have a different boundary of warmer, more moist air, with low surface pressure, they will be a couple of hundred K/JG CAPE kicking about, with a negative LI (Lifted index).
As the occluded front pushes through, showers will form quite widely across North Western parts of England, along with Wales & North Western Scotland experiencing a rash of slow moving heavy showers, becoming very organised at times, so plenty of precipitation to be had tomorrow.
As we head in to the afternoon tomorrow, showers will start cropping up just about anywhere, with some fairly heavy ones for the midlands running into Lincolnshire and later East Yorkshire.
A messy picture, but with it comes much needed rainfall, it's going to be a fairly active week this week, with rain, gales, thunderstorms, hail...
Will keep an eye on developments tomorrow of the convective type
Regards
Lewis
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A very unsettled period coming up this week, after a mostly dry and bright day for many areas yesterday, the change will be brought about by a large area of precipitation associated with an approaching low pressure system off the western coast of Ireland.
If you look on the latest fax chart you can clearly see the messy pattern that we have, it's a continuing theme throughout the week but I have a feeling tomorrow afternoon and early evening may bring a few surprises to some people looking for electrical activity/convective weather.
The latest fax chart illustrates the occluded front brought about a low pressure system
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVE89.png
It's very possible that we may see some thunderstorms embedded as the occluded front moves through, it happens, but it all depends on a few ingredients/key features, what we'll see tomorrow is a warm occlusion, the air mass overtaking the warm front is warmer than the cold air ahead of the warm front and rides over the colder air mass while lifting the warm air.
Behind the occluded front we have a different boundary of warmer, more moist air, with low surface pressure, they will be a couple of hundred K/JG CAPE kicking about, with a negative LI (Lifted index).
As the occluded front pushes through, showers will form quite widely across North Western parts of England, along with Wales & North Western Scotland experiencing a rash of slow moving heavy showers, becoming very organised at times, so plenty of precipitation to be had tomorrow.
As we head in to the afternoon tomorrow, showers will start cropping up just about anywhere, with some fairly heavy ones for the midlands running into Lincolnshire and later East Yorkshire.
A messy picture, but with it comes much needed rainfall, it's going to be a fairly active week this week, with rain, gales, thunderstorms, hail...
Will keep an eye on developments tomorrow of the convective type
Regards
Lewis
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GFS 12z remains on course to bring changes as we move to May with high pressure building strongly to our east before moving over the UK as we enter May, although the warmth GFS was showing this morning has gone the high pressure to our east hasn't
UKMO is unsettled for all its run
Dear mother nature,
Would you please hurry up high pressure establishing it's self across the U.K, for Gavin's sake
Thank you
lol
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GFS 06z follows on from the 00z with high pressure to our east bringing in some warm air from the continent
Changes could be coming as we move into May
Blimey them sort of temperatures and weather pattern feels a long way off, I hope the above charts you posted come in to fruition, but we need to get through an extremely unsettled period this week and possible early next week.
Gale force winds, driving rain, heavy showers, embedded thunderstorms, a very active spell of weather to come.
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Certainly a very very low pressure dominated spell coming up, can't beat a bit of low pressure, will bring much needed rain, and later on into the week we start to draw some energy and moisture from the SE/near continent, with the amount of instability to offer, we could see some nice slow moving heavy showers, and of course thunderstorms
Could be a good week quite widely for some storm chasing.
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Next Tuesday is looking very good.
I know a long time away for thing's to change, more especially so with it being a low pressure system, and the angle/position will most likely change greatly but here it is;
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After having a quick look at the models, humidity levels, along with a higher upper 850 temps, can see why the south are getting them.
I reckon tomorrow's going to be the same, colder uppers digging southwards, with the South of the UK bringing in some milder upper 850's from the near continent (to the SE) moisture levels supportive, along with a much higher CAPE and LI, so perfect recipe for thunderstorms for Southampton/Pompey area, right along the South Coast line. Cornwall/Devon coasts could be in for some serious stuff, with a small chance of thunderstorms running through the Bristol channel, heading into central southern parts, and maybe later the home counties.
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Would you say todays triggers for the thunderstorms/cells (more so for the South of the country) is due to a sea-breeze convergence, along with a little bit of CAPE?
Kind of scratching my head a bit. We have some towers here, certainly more than the magic 18,000 feet mark. Just don't have the trigger to turn these localized cells electrical in nature.
Just realized there's a trough on the FAX charts, should be around the South now, that's another trigger.
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strict met definition-up to 5mm is small, and yes after over 50 years of weather observing its fairly easy to make estimates.
Was just pulling your leg John.
We had some decent sized hail here yesterday and day before. Quite amazing how quickly it accumulated on the ground, was scenes of winter for a time, until of course the rain washed it all away.
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well that shower-see radar just east of dn4, was perhaps about the sharpest one of this spell, 10 minutes of smallish hail, about 5mm diameter, as I walked along, soon taking shelter under a large fir tree, most grass was white over and it was starting to settle on parts of the pavement before it turned to rain. As to the cloud type, irrespective of the 12z prog I commented on from Net Wx for the skew-t for Doncaster, it had to be a large Cu(2) and probably extending into a Cb(3) for the hail to occur. I can't see the cloud tops yet as its still masked by other CuSc.
Did you have a ruler with you John?
Wouldn't call 5mm that small.
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Hi guys,
Other than a few heavy showers, and one particular dumping of around 1cm of level hail in Cottingham/Willbery area, it's been mostly inactive here in East Yorkshire.
Quick reminder, if you guys have photos and videos of todays storms, send me them and i'll put them on our website, trying to make a large database this year of everyones storms
you can e-mail me them too [email protected]We have a lot of storm chasers/admirers on our page now, feel free to join the current 60 members by liking our group on facebook, if it's ok with the mods the link is: https://www.facebook...320341941362083
Loving the forum upgrade, much faster at loading and slicker!
lewis
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Thanks both
Hope these help
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Can I PLEASE request a favour ?
Between 1.30 and 2.30 a very heavy shower passed over whitstable/herne/herne bay and dropped alot of hail and intense rainfall!. Some of the grass started to go white and there was flooding in parts, what was also very noticable was a temp drop to just 2C it went from 7.5C down to 2C and it looked very sleety/slushy in the hilly parts of herne, kent.
What I need is a radar image of that time and any reports of such a low temp?
Hello,
Noticed no reply has been made by one of the experienced forecasters, and I'm sure if I hazard my idea and it's wrong someone will correct me.
First thing is the equipment you was getting your temp reading from exposed to the ice deposits left from the hail stone, as this could have had an impact on the reading, if not....
I'm almost certain a cold front passed through today, so the temperatures ahead, and behind would be have a pretty stark contrast. Could be 12-13c ahead of the cold front, and 7-8c behind the cold front.
Another thing is that when you have convective showers, the freezing level 9 times out of 10 will automatically drop considerably especially in such setups like today with upper 850's not too high to that of our normal warm/moist uppers we get in summer that is associated with our proper thunderstorms.
Don't forget it get's super chilled up there like a freezer
Hope what I said makes sense, that or I need to read more books lol.
Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - April 2012 Onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
It's starting!!! not long now =D