kold weather

February 13

One thing that would be interesting to know is is this a true uplift in raininess in the country, or is it just us getting stronger fronts relative to past similar synoptic.

In other words, have our rain days gone up or down?

I'd guess it's possible that both rain days could decrease and rainfall averages go up due to more intensity of said events.

February 13

This winter already into the top 60 wettest ever across the EWP zone upto 11th, so several weeks left and whilst perhaps mot thar stormy looking, there are a few weak-moderate fronts looking baked into the next 10 days.

Basically this winter has just been extended autumn, mild, borderline exceptionally wet, and at times windy, without being *really* windy for most..

February 12

In Absence of True Seasons Whats interesting about last summer is the best analogue we had was probably 1957 with regards to the development of the El Nino and that had a barnstorming June followed by a wet fart of a July/August, which isn't too far from how it evolved last year in the end. Of course the September hot spell was a nice little bonus.

@damianslaw I'd imagine where you are yes February can never feel spring like. I'd argue close to the south coast though by the time your through mid month it absolutely can feel like Spring, albeit early of course! February 19 felt extremely spring like as probably the best example when I stayed on the south coast for that week.

January 31

SunSean probably because there are just a metric shedload more warm records than cold records, I think globally its currently running something like 10-12x more warm than cold so of course its going to seem like the warmer stuff is getting the attention because there just is more of it.

Anyways hopefully February can be one of those split months because temperature wise its probably more akin to March than February for the first 7-10 days, though with probably a fair amount of cloud probably won't feel all that great even if the temperatures are well above normal.

January 22

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Depends on location, I would have said January 2021 was "wintry" 12 days of lying snow under met office rules for that month at my location which is low lying.

Had a CET of 3.2c, though I do admit down here (i'm a similar location to the poster) it really was no great shakes, though the Jan 21 snow event performed ok locally, and indeed was the last meaningful snow to have fallen here, though we had quite a few slight dustings since.

Regardless, this is another month to add to the above 61-90 bank, 24 out of 25 now, will probably be close to average but on the above side for the 91-20 average.

January 19

Very noticeable shift towards somewhat lighter evenings now, albeit one that has been briefly amplified by clear skies. With that being said even on cloudy days I'd imagine it will be more noticeable now compared to a month ago. Within a couple of weeks the mornigs will also start to improve quickly as well, though still a little ways to go before it will be light at getting up time.

January 19

43 minutes ago, Downburst said:

February and March is when the sea is at its coldest around these shores. We can as someone said get a near summer day in March on occasion, although you won't be sitting outside on the deck in a T-shirt late into the night, it's a month like April subject to seasonal reversal and winter can bite back. It's never easy this climate is it. Drive you to post anonymously in the internet it would

Even in April you can have warm days but your still going to be subject to outright chilly nights still. I remember in 2007 having wonderfully warm days (probably the best we'd have that year, or close to it anyways!) but there still at times being a touch of frost very first thing. By about 10am though it was rapidly warming. A classic jumper to T-shirt type day.

@raz.org.rain hate to say it but that was nearly the ideal set-up for the southern coastal part of the UK, it just needed the whole 50-100 miles further north and thats a 10-20cm event across the south.

Who knows how long we will need to wait for another ideal evolution. I'm sure at some point we will scrape a decent fall from a less than ideal set-up. And yes, I'm aware some places did well in Dec 22, but locally its feeling increasingly likely this will be the third winter straight with nothing of note, though at least unlike the spell between 04-07 we do seem capable of getting sub zero CET days, that spell was painfully hard to even get for more than the odd day here and there.

January 19

Both Tuesday and Thursday at the moment are looking exceptionally mild days. The January daily record of 12.7c looks on the very top end of whats possible based on a fairly mobile atlantic shifting airmasses but I wouldn't be surprised if one of those days ends up in the top 10 ranking of all time.

Beyond next Friday a signal is emerging for HP to lift up somewhat and may introduce a somewhat cooler flow, though it has to be said most are cooler, rather than cold for the last few days which probably limits the extent of any falls from that point, especially as we won't be super high to begin with.

January 18

9 minutes ago, TillyS said:

2.5C?

If was 3.6C to the 17th, that only leaves the 18th in the very cold range. The 19th cold, but not quite as cold. The 20th it starts going upwards.

To get to 2.5C from here would surely require a mean CET over those two blank days of -6C?!

What am I missing here?

I’d say around 3C to the 19th inclusive.

Nothing, my mistake because SS said 3.6 to the 16th, but that figure is actually upto the 17th as you rightly say.

Could well still get down about 3c though as you say.

I suspect somewhere between 4.5-5.5c is looking like the eventual landing spot, towards the cooler end if we do see a bend back towards average or even a little below like the latest set of runs, or closer to 5.5c if we blow torch through to the end.

Pretty likely still we end up with an above average 61-90 month, though a very cold end could run it close.

January 18

1 hour ago, Methuselah said:

And sixteen consecutive days at 32C or above will, I think, will stay top-of-the-league for many more years (if not decades).

That really was an absurd period looking back at the stats. Coming during a period where summer temperatures were lower as a whole anyways makes it even more so. As impressive as the dry spells of 18 and 22 were, neither managed such a prolonged heatwave, even if 22 was able to go nuclear with that 40c in July and 18 be consistently good for a nearly absurd length of time.

January 18

50 minutes ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

The weather from Sunday onwards is looking incredibly mild 21-31st is the daily max reaching 10C + every day, peaking at 14C on the 23rd for my location in Coventry.

If that came off, we couldn't be far off record high 2nd half of January temperatures. despite this current cold snap?

This cold spell will 99% kill any chances of breaking a record for the warmest 2nd half of January, I will leave the tiny chance just because this a record warm world and you can't ever be certain of these things. With that being said to reach 2002 2nd half of Jan (which was exceptionally mild) would require the last 14 days of this month to now reach 8.8c as an average, and obviously the next two-three days will be dramatically below that, so the final figure will be north of 10c vs 2002.

The warmest 2nd half I can see just through eye appears to be 1846, with a 16-31st coming in at 8.3c. That would require a 2 week mean of 9.5c from todays figure onward. By Sunday we'd require something like a top 5 all time Jan CET day level of warmth to match the 2nd half of 1846, 11 days is a row....

I agree though it does look very mild from Sun until at least Wed-Thurs, beyond that considerably more uncertainty. We may well be see a date record fall on Tuesday, though 1843 has an exceptionally high value of 11,6c to beat which won't be easy given that number is very high up the all time rankings.

January 18

2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Expect a notably low daily mean for today. Pershore -9.7C for example, I can’t see high climbing much above freezing.

Should be comfortably subzero today.

Could well have a CET near 2.5c by 20th (probably between 2.5-3c) , which would require probably the most exceptional mild spell ever seen in January to get upto 6c+.

With that being said, we are going to have some very mild days coming up so we should still end up comfortably above the 61-90 mean. The 91-20 mean will be tighter if the GFS is correct with a more average final few days,

January 17

23 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

To be fair I think March 1st, 2018 managed that. I think it's the coldest spring day mean ever in the C.E.T. Correct me if I'm wrong.

I think that was the last one, so coming up to 6 years since we had one on the CET series.

January 16

6 minutes ago, al78 said:

Given December 2010 was the coldest for around a century and is one of the very few months in that period with a negative CET, I'm not surprised that trying to compare current forecasts to it would result in accusations of hyping. Any sort of ramping is likely to stimulate a metaphorical slap back to reality response.

2010 really was amazing.

It was severely below the long term mean, probably similar level of severity vs the mean as the legendary months of the past (Feb 47, Jan 63, etc) given background warming since then and the fact it was in December, a month with a higher mean anyways) It was well over 5c below normal in the CET zone.

Sadly we will probably never see a month so extreme vs the mean in winter in our lifetimes, even without climate change raising the baseline ever further up. So to expect another month even in the same league is asking for failure.

For now, I'd just settle for one CET day to be record cold in some aspect, just feels like mission impossible these days. We came close in Dec 22, but ultimately coming close doesn't win the prize.

January 16

22 hours ago, Sun Chaser said:

Despite the upcoming mild spell and the mild start to the month, it's looking possible that this January will be the coldest since 2010 for many parts of the south, even if it was mostly unremarkable.

Pretty much bang on average over much of the south upto the 15th. Obviously will drop below over the next 4 days but the following 10 days really do look mild, at times maybe even exceptionally so.

I've few doubts we will be much warmer than say Jan 2021 which ended up being a modestly cold month across much of the UK (actually colder than Dec 22, again due to Dec 22 having a similarly very mild spell to one upcoming.)

January 16

Really strong signal for something very mild coming up in the final 10 days, we can hope they are overextending it but thats about as strong a signal as your likely to get sadly.

This synoptically screams record breaking over a 10 day period to me, though if we can get the core of the HP close enough to at least the south that may allow a drier airmass and possibly less cloud cover at night which will limit how high we could go.

It probably will feel spring like outside of periods with higher winds, despite the low sun.

January 16

11 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

I really very strongly doubt a below 5C finish. Admittedly the modelling could change, but there's one of the strongest signals I think I've ever seen for mild conditions to round out the month, and at times it is very mild, perhaps even close to breaking daily records.

If we suppose we reach the 20th with the CET at around 3.5C, probably at the lower end of possibilities, and then we average 8C to the end (which be under-doing things!), then we'd get a CET just above 5C. My central estimate is probably in the 5.5C range, and I'd be more surprised by a finish under 5C than one above 6C.

Whatever happens we roll onto yet another month above the 61-90 average, makes it 24 out of the last 25. Starting to become statistically quite striking.

January 15

Well after possible suggestions of a below 61-90 month, the models coming into pretty impressive agreement on a mild, probably very mild flow for a time which will probably push us above the 61-90 average again, perhaps comfortably so. The modern average will be a little closer unless we go very mild pretty much nonstop.

January 15

If you want to have a visual of the way I think we are going to move forward look no further than the control run GFS. Probably going to have a 7-10 day spell of very mild, maybe exceptionally so. Beyond that though I think we will see more and more high pressure building up through Europe and lift up. Hopefully we can shift the whole thing far enough to benefit from any retrograde opportunity that may present itself, even if the window isn't long.

January 15

5 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

I remember that one, forecast at T+06z: dry; actual: hours of heavy rain.

There has been more than one instance where rain was not supposed to reach my location in the most recent forecast, but ended up as far north as Manchester. There was one where an upper front popped up at T+0. Not sure why models couldn't detect it before then? I recall another band of rain that was supposed to skim South Wales and instead covered the whole of the Wales in heavy rain, all change at T+0. I am sure these examples only stick in the mind, because they are so unbelievably wrong at such short range and when there is zero or negligible departure short range it is 'no news', so that probably remains the majority. However, suffice to say that there is sufficient evidence to merit a 'watching brief' up to T+0.

I think the other thing that warrants it is there are ensemble members and the occasional operational model still making it into at least parts of the south. Interestingly the ARPEGE ensembles have swung northwards considerably in its most recent run.

Its a classic low chance but high impact scenario, and I'm willing to bet the met office already have a yellow/amber warning ready made should things seem to be north of where currently expectations are.

Lets just say I wouldn't be surprised if there is a small line of 5-10cms on the ground by the end of Wednesday. I also wouldn't be surprised if the front never leaves the French coastline. Both and everything inbetween is still on the table.

January 15

Man that front is close to the south coast, or even on the south coast on Wednesday on the 12z runs.

Honestly its well within the margin of error still. I recall a similar rain event which progged to only brush the south coast but ended up producing a pretty signifncant rain event back in December.

Thats not to say I think its the likely outcome, I think its not. But its still close enough call that it will need very close watching right through to Wednesday, we are talking literally 10-20 miles making the difference between basically nothing and 3-5cms into southern coastal counties.

January 15

1 hour ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

While some high temps for the time were reached on July 1st 1961 (33.9°C at various locations, although we'll go with 33.8°C at Heathrow as that's the highest celsius reading), overall this was a temporary heat spike in an otherwise unnotable summer. A bit reminiscent of 2015 actually. Brize Norton was below 20°C for almost two consecutive weeks in August, although right on the August/September border there was another heat spike. Overall if this summer occured today it would be absolutely lambasted - It was quite cool even for the standards of the day aside from the heat spikes.

1968 is very similar. Annoyingly I only have the data for Woodbridge, Suffolk which is rather coastal, but it appears to overall be even milder than 1961 with even fewer heat spikes.

Undoubtely the 1960s were a time of exceptionally low plume activity. Interestingly the 60s were also a time of warm-ish springs, and of course the UK's March records were set in 1965 and 1968. 2007-2012 saw April 2007, May 2008, the dry springs of 2009 and 2010, spring 2011 and March and May 2012. I wonder if there is some kind of connection between the two periods

Go back even further and the warmest May's typically come from that little age period as well. Does make you wonder whether there are climatic shifts that occur every now and then that predispose the UK to a shift in favourable synoptics for warmth?

January 15

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

The ICON accumulated precipitation chart up to Saturday is a bit of slap in the face for snow lovers in central and southern areas - precipitation virtually everywhere in the Atlantic and Europe apart from here!

I mean thats purely bad luck really, more things have had to go wrong than right to end up there but thats exactly what happened.

With that being said, its an amazingly hard set-up to land even historically, and in the last 20 years its basically gone extinct bar maybe one instance in 2013.

January 14

11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is not aimed at you - it just follows on from your post - but I am quite surprised at the "surprise" that the cold will likely relent after the weekend. Was there ever an ensemble set suggesting differently?

I think what has caught some out is just how strong the very mild signal has become, especially when some had convinced themselves that it was still possible for the cold to win out, and instead the models show a top 10 warmest Jan week coming up, albeit with the same caveat that came with the cold spell, that its still too far out to be that confident.

Warmer than average, probably significantly so though does seem probable now next week.

January 14

3 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Honestly 2010 was really not that "bad" aside from a couple of weeks in August and maybe the beginning of June. Aside from that it looks decent. August 2009 was decent as well and that fell directly in the holiday season. Out of that list the only ones I'd say were actually "bad" are 2007 and 2012, and maybe 2008 and 2011 depending on location. 2008 and 2011 were definitely not that bad further south. With 2011 I feel that people are having selective memory with the third week of August which really seems to be the only notable rainy spell all summer, with the rest just not being that exceptional in any way. Even when I was further west on holiday I remember most of it being decently sunny and warm, with it only becoming bad as that storm passed through. It will also seem comparitively disappointing because of the record hot April before and the September-October heatwave after it.

Summer of 2007 and 2012 were really dreadful as you say, bar perhaps the odd week (Olympics week in 12 for example).

As for 08 and 11, personally any summer that has all three months below average, above normal rainfall and below average sunshine like 2011 does cannot IMO go down as anything other than below par, and 2008 was really very wet (August was utterly atrocious).

Only 2010 as you say probably is at par, or maybe a little above as it did have a pretty good June from what I remember, but very little stands out from that summer.

The whole period from 07-12 just is a blank for good summer weather, I'm sure there were good weeks but overall compared to what we've seen in other years its a whole load of meh to me bookended by probably 2 of the worst summers in the last 25 years.

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