Arnie Pie

30 years of data collected by the same group of observers Can you show me some data that disproves the theory that noctilucent cloud displays are effected by Solar activity? anything so we can agree to disagree

These examples are from the only chroniced displays of Noctilucent Clouds availabe on the web (that I can find anyhows) To which they have been recording their results for over 30 years, fistly through the NCLNET site, and presently on the AKM site They relate to the number of Night/morning displays over the Northern hemisphere NLC season and not just individual reports. You assumed correctly about the D/A/CH region, which the last time i checked is in the Northern hemisphere A difficult subject to prove, thats why my hearsay comes from a cited paper on the British Astronomy association site the article mentions the low solar activity of solar cycle 24 in it`s last sentence. however the general trend of the number of displays in relationship to solar activity can be seen. ie less displays at the height of solar activity 2012-2015 compared with more displays when the Sun was less active 2018-2021

While we are waiting for mother nature's 'chef in the sky' to mix all of the ingredients into a great big Noctilucent Cloud pie. It may be worth remembering the coloration between solar activity and the amount and brightness of any NCL displays. Try as i might unable to find any new information on this subject, so i revert to a quote from an article in 2014 British Astronomical Association `Noctilucent cloud over Britain and Western Europe, 2013–2014` “It has been reported on a number of occasions that NLC frequency is related to the solar cycle with the assumption that increased solar radiation at solar maximum suppresses NLC formation by not allowing the temperature at the mesopause to reach that required for ice nucleation. The past two solar cycles have shown this quite clearly with NLC reaching maximum frequency in years of solar minimum. This was well demonstrated in the recent years of low solar activity from 2006-2009. Since 2010, solar activity has been increasing and it is generally accepted that solar cycle 24 had two peaks, one in 2012 and a second and slightly higher peak at the beginning of 2014. However, the overall activity of cycle 24 is believed to be the lowest since cycle 14, which peaked in 1907. Given previous relationships between NLC frequency and the solar cycle it would be expected that NLC frequency would have significantly reduced from 2010 to 2014, but the reduction in frequency found by observation does not show a marked decline. One explanation for this lack of fall in NLC frequency must lie in the low activity level of solar cycle 24.” Some info i have put together which shows the slight reduction in displays in relation to Sunspot activity Information from Information from Spaceweather.com www.leuchtende-nachtwolken.info/chronik.htm Spotless Days Number of NLC displays Current Stretch: 0 days 2023 total: 0 days (0%) 2022 total: 1 day (<1%) 52 2021 total: 64 days (18%) 46 2020 total: 208 days (57%) 64 2019 total: 281 days (77%) 48 2018 total: 221 days (61%) 54 2017 total: 104 days (28%) 39 2016 total: 32 days (9%) 30 2015 total: 0 days (0%) 30 2014 total: 1 day (<1%) 29 2013 total: 0 days (0%) 28 2012 total: 0 days (0%) 27 2011 total: 2 days (1%) 29 2010 total: 51 days (14%) 25 2009 total: 260 days (71%) 37 2008 total: 268 days (73%) 29 2007 total: 152 days (42%) 18 2006 total: 70 days (19%) 35 Updated 29 May 2023 We are heading towards a solar maximum, part of the Sun's solar cycle of activity lasting around 11 years. so inevitably we should expect to see fewer NLC displays

Good looking signals from OSWIN ... I think I`m waiting for the boffins in Germany to view their opinions before getting overly excited https://forum.meteoros.de/viewtopic.php?f=34&t=61302

European cams are quiet, European forums are quiet The only thing that`s active is the Sun in it`s solar maximum Not looking good for now

Nautical twilight starts just after 23.00 clear as a bell apart from the smut level

Eyes on the sky Rob, most of the duration, Nowt yet

Excellent piece of work by Stefan Krause, straightforward and easy to understand information concerning the relationship between radar signals and NLC`s Stephan is also the author of of the German NLC forum where there is an uptodate sub forum on the same subject 'Current situation at OSWIN & Co. NLC season 2023' links can be found on the previous page posted by @Jamie M

Nothing tonight or seen on any cams. last image taken towards the end of Nautical twilight just before some local cloud moved in Capella at 10°

Nothing on the eurocams as yet but I'm up till the next nautical twilight (around 03.00) boiling a joint of bacon during cheap electricity time

Same here Jamie

Something interesting from the German NLC forum you pasted earlier @Jamie M Hello everyone, since the NLC season 2023 is likely to start in the near future, I am opening the usual permanent thread today, in which the current situation at OSWIN and other plots can be discussed. This is how we've avoided developing countless threads titled "NLC's Coming Night?" for a number of years. MAARSY, the mesosphere radar in Andenes (69°N), is currently receiving vast amounts of echoes from the altitude layer 55 - 90 km (i.e. from the entire mesosphere), with the focus being between 65 and 80 km:https://www.iap-kborn.de/forschung/abte ... sosphaere/(each available for the last 48 hours). These are not NLCs or PMSEs, but PMWEs (polar mesospheric winter echoes). These echoes, which do not appear to have a visually perceptible counterpart, occur not only in winter, contrary to their name, but throughout the period from September to April/May and occasionally also during the summer NLC season. For more information on the PMWEs, which are the subject of current research, please refer to the IAP website:https://www.iap-kborn.de/forschung/abte ... nkte/pmwe/. On the "daisies" of the AIM satellite (http://lasp.colorado.edu/aim/cips/data/ ... _daisy.png) we will have to do without in the future (s.https://blogs.nasa.gov/sunspot/2023/03/ ... l-support/). The plot of the mesosphere radar OSWIN in Kuehlungsborn (https://www.iap-kborn.de/forschung/abte ... sosphaere/) has been hanging since March, but experience has shown that it will provide current data again at the beginning of the season. The Welsh MST Radar (http://www.mstrf.eclipse.co.uk/ncas-cda ... s_m300.png) draws reliably, but has not received any echoes so far. The plots of the Aura satellite regarding the state of the mesosphere show that there are currently insufficient conditions for the formation of NLCs: https://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/~hcp/meso_ts/(UK) as wellhttps://alomar.andoyaspace.no/rmrlidar/ ... index.html(Alomar and Kuehlungsborn). Underhttp://www.leuchtende-nachtwolken.info/vorhersage.htmyou will find information about the above-mentioned and other plots as well as the associated prediction options for NLCs. Greetings from Oberursel, Stefan edit No mentions of any sighting this season

Frustrating beyond belief Over the years sometimes when we have seen massive signals on Marrsy there have been NLC`s seen over Europe. More often than not the same explosion of signals have revealed nothing That`s why we or nobody else has never been able to use the radar signals as a reliable forecasting tool Give me a daisy anyday where are the signals on Oswin radar?

cheers Jamie i`ll digest later

How many times have we asked the same question over the years Rob? i thought after seeing it mentioned on the European facebook site, last season, that it indicates the ingredients for the clouds to form, but not actual clouds .. it`s never really made scense to me

Can you post a link for that belief because i have been to the site and cant say that its indicated

Do these indicate actual clouds Jamie?

no ...if the signals from Marrsy actually indicated Clouds i would

Back after some terminal pc problems just in time for a clear night and some crazy Marrsy returns ( which nobody seems to understand) I`ll let you know if anythings spotted

Ending the stream folks its using to much of my PC`s resources up staying up will let you know if anything shows

Another example when the stars weren't visible Anyway i've started a live stream https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ooPxb_ZBZ9E Its a bit experimental with the new manual settings but we`ll no when the stars come out (or not) but a new image will be uploaded every 5 mins or so

fair play ... its the lack of stars that someone mentioned that sowed the seeds of doubt! lol Sorry Rob but it possible to catch faint NCL`s without any stars being visible, especially around the start and end of nautical twilight, when coming out an into civil twilight

If that was the case then they would have had to be illumiated alto cumulus clouds to produce the classic undulating wave structure on show in the image. i`m also sure that you would be able to see the massive glow needed to illuminate these clouds ( Irbit is a russian town with a population of less than 40,000 ) The time this was taken was right in the middle of nautical twilight 04.00, classic timing for viewing NCL`s here`s a photo from 40 minutes later as it approached daybreak No alto cumulus clouds to be seen No massive glow from a town a little bit bigger than Bromsgrove No doubt in My mind Bob

Pinch the edited one which i posted this morning , they are more obvious Yes completely missed the Arora looking for e pesky NCL`s

Possibly not with your eyesight Bob i`m going to set up a stream for this evening maybe live but with live updates from my big camera