Wivenswold
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Posts posted by Wivenswold
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Great Western Railway and Cross Country have barred their high speed trains from running along the seawall tonight because they keep breaking down there in stormy weather, so all trains in Devon and Cornwall tonight are over 30 years old British Rail units.
A stunning example of progress, UK-style.-
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Breeze is just getting up here in the far NE reaches of Amber Warning country.
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Now lightning showing up on the Dawlish cam.
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Interesting to see that my part of East Anglia has 3 peaks in the wind according to the UK met output. At 1am, 7am and 5pm. Each time up to about 55-60mph.
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Just now, Islander said:
Well the rain is coming down now and wind has picked up dramatically, dreading a night’s sleep in this, think the morning will be carnage! 1987 all over again if not worse!
I wish you and all your fellow Channel Islands the best of luck for tonight. I'd usually envy you living so far south of the UK mainland but not tonight.
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Just now, Kiwi said:
Yes but to be fair it's probably a bit more robust than the train services which many of the students rely on ...travelling in from all over Hampshire.
I think South West Railway will have an even more reduced timetable than usual tomorrow.
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2 minutes ago, Kiwi said:
As a result we have taken the decision to close the College and move all teaching, learning and support services on Thursday 2 November online.
..........etc, etc
They're optimistic about the robustness of the National Grid.
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2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
Mine only have to walk over a down, but guess where the pylons are, yep, they are not walking under those tomorrow.
Don't forget to ask the school whether they will provide transport home if you consider it too dangerous to pick them up. But if you wake up and the advice in your area is to stay indoors, I'd send a terse email to the school telling them that they're your children and you decide whether it's safe enough for them to go out. Some schools treat their customers appallingly but tend to back down if you threaten legal action, few of them can afford legal fees.
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I was listening to LBC when the 1987 storm woke me up and even during the 4am news bulletin acknowledged "reports coming in of damage and power cuts across the South of England" was about all they could say. Even at that late stage there was a worrying sense of "nobody knows what's going on out there". Then the power went off.
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Totally agree. I think so much attention on maximum gusts is overlooking the very real flooding issues, there are parts of the country where the ground is already saturated. There will be flooding problems across the UK over the next week.
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Ah yes, this is it, I stand corrected. However, I wouldn't say these are a yearly event, more every 4-5 years and rarely when trees are in full leaf. This chart below does make me a little reassured that our tree stock has been tested recently though.
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2 minutes ago, daniel barber said:
60mph gusts in Essex are almost a yearly occurance. Look at last year storm eunice had winds gust at over 70mph across the county.
Storm Eunice highest recorded gust in Essex was 46 kts which is 52.94mph
Central London had 39 kts or 44.88 mph
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3 minutes ago, daniel barber said:
It can. But its not unheard of. Usually happens a few times a year. Away from the immediate coast its still not looking that bad yet. Although models can adjust resolution closer to the time. Depending also on the track if those big winds in the channel move up into east anglia/ South East. So far it doesn't look that bad
We've not had a 60 mph gust in years and the trees are in full leaf, so it's not as common as you'd think.
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60 mph gusts in London will cause issues. In fact, 60 mph in much of the SE can cause problems.
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14 minutes ago, snowspotter said:
Doesn’t look like much of note if you believe the met office generated forecast for inland south east areas. Here in Reigate it’s saying maximum gusts 42mph on Thursday, hardly a repeat of the legendary 1987 storm . Accept maybe some coastal areas will see more
As has been said many times here, this is an emerging situation. Ignore any computer generated forecasts and what apps are saying today. Listen to actual meteorologists doing proper spoken forecasts in situations like this and don't assume what is forecast now will be what happens.
The storm is forming over 1,000 miles away. The forecast here will have subtle changes many times before tomorrow night. Don't write this off until Friday.-
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Damage possible anywhere that shows red to white on that map. This is looking more and more like 1987's little brother.
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35 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:
Sadly, on the rail network, a lot of people tend to ignore advice. You then end up in the situation of thousands of people stranded, with no rail replacement due to adverse weather conditions.
All it takes it for a few trees to fall onto the overhead wires, which can cause disruption for several hours.
Looking at the latest from the UKMO, I'm already thinking about which operators will run a reduced service. Transport for Wales, Cross Country, GWR, South West Railway, Southern, Thameslink, South Eastern, C2C and Greater Anglia I reckon. The rain alone will cause some problems.
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It does depend where you are, where you're going and what you'll be doing.
Those heading across the channel on a ferry or going out sailing around the UK on Thursday should cancel plans or have contingencies in place.
If you're flying into or out of the South, be ready for a bumpy flight and possible diversions to more sheltered inland airports.
Those on the South coast should start preparing for a major weather event.
The rest of us should keep a close eye on things and be ready to change plans.
Planning ahead is far better than assuming you'll be fine and that the forecast will improve. The fewer people out on the roads and travelling by train, the better.-
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My in-depth assessment of those GFS charts is......Oh dear.
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I think that's very wise. I'm off work on Thursday and staying indoors.
Even areas with 50mph gusts will have impacts as the trees are in full leaf. It can take as little as a wayward sheet of plastic or a small tree branch on the overhead wires above railway lines to bring services to a grinding halt.
Expect train operators to run reduced and slower services on Thursday.4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:I've cancelled what I was doing on Thursday, and it only has a ten minute walk down the road, unless it moves significantly south, it'll hit here with at least 80moh regardless of what it does further in land, I'm not leaving my house.
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My remaining chum from school lives in Seddlescomb and ended up buying a back-up generator because their connection to the National Grid is so fragile. Lots of mature trees in the countryside between the North and South Downs, the ground is saturated and it takes just one gust for the infrastructure for thousands of homes to break.
Yes, I lived in London in 1987 and even there it was carnage. We lost power at 4.11am and got it back about 12 hours later, it felt like the 1970s.-
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More gardening and DIY accidents in fair weather.
Sorry mods, this is really going off the rails, but some humour ahead of a big storm isn't a bad thing.-
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Just now, Summer8906 said:
21C, partly cloudy skies, calm and dry in May?
8 hours in that strong sunshine without sun block could cause problems. Not to mention more people out on the roads.
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Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I would hate to throw in some pessimism but the higher than average sea temperatures around the UK may scupper the chances of snow particularly in the South and around the coasts of England and Wales.