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Wivenswold

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Posts posted by Wivenswold

    Storm Babet

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

     

    Hence why I intentionally said England and not the whole of the UK. 

     

    Yes, the warnings for Scotland are most certainly needed, but it seems strange that the east of England and parts of Central areas needs one? 

    North Essex is going to have a month's worth of rain in 24 hours and our rivers are full. So it's not at all strange that the east of England is included.

    • Like 2

    Storm Agnes

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    As I mentioned in the SE thread. Currently ECM is closest to the latest pressure charts, though Agnes is at 1013mb rather than the forecast 1012mb and the ridge to its north is also stronger. Small differences while Agnes forms could lead to bigger changes down the line. If pressure drops more slowly, she will take a more southerly track bringing the south coast and possibly the South of England into the warning area. 

    Warmer Atlantic than normal too, so there are many variables in play with Agnes. 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    It's a bit too early to be ruling the South East out of seeing impacts due to Agnes. 
    ECM currently the closest to the what's happening off the Newfoundland coast albeit central pressure of Agnes is slightly higher as is the ridge of high pressure to its North. Tiny differences but they could lead to a more southerly track if Agnes takes longer to deepen, though the worst situation for us, a channel low, does seem to be unlikely at this stage. 

    • Like 1

    Storm Agnes

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Wivenswold

    I totally agree with your summary of risks @Jo Farrow .

    I used to work on the railway and now work in risk management.

    These are exactly the sort of set-ups that will cause huge disruption due to one or two weaknesses with the infrastructure or a rogue, insecure/unsecured item damaging the infrastructure. Trees are in full leaf, garden furniture is still out and this is the first test of the system's resilience to gales in a while.  Likewise with the roads, one downed tree or overturned lorry can bring regions to a grinding halt.  I can see a lot of problems come Thursday morning, little problems maybe but that doesn't mean the results are insignificant. 

    I've advised my Facebook friends to avoid travel later on Wednesday and to have a back-up plan if they have important things to do on Thursday.  That should be the message to the public at the moment.  

    • Like 3

    Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    It looks like a nowcast situation, in these situations I'm glad I'm not a professional forecaster.  Based on apps and some websites, a whole swathe of people in the warning area will moan that "the forecast is always wrong" when they don't get an isolated storm. 

    I'd recommend everyone spends 30 seconds reading Met Office forecasts every day or watch a full weather bulletin on their You Tube page rather than looking at symbols on apps.  

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    To my less than trained eye, ECM is playing with an Omega Block at day 7 and another slightly less extreme warm and humid blast next weekend. I can only hope as we're having parties in the garden two weekends running. 

    However, if GFS plays out we're wet, cold and indoors. Not just a lack of consistency at Day 8, a totally different set-up for the whole of the North Atlantic and Europe.    

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    Hurricane Idalia

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    If it moves slowly and stays over water longer then Cat 4 or 5 isn't out of the question but yes, it's currently forecast to be Cat 2-3 by most models.  Less than 48 hours to co-ordinate a large evacuation of prone coastline must be a nightmare. Residents of Tampa and Panama City should be ready for any movement of the track too.  With hurricanes either side of Florida, flooding could be really widespread.   

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