Kirkcaldy Weather

Wanted to do this post which will be addressing those who continue to disregard us who use the teleconnective aspects. A few crucial areas here which have been prominent for weeks. The Stratospheric Warming - Sudden Stratospheric Warming didn't 'fail' I've already shown the timeframe in which this reversal of zonal winds at 10hpa DID occur I'll link that post below. The MJO progression didn't 'fail' or become 'unsupportive' those who regularly follow my posts can gleam that the MJO and resultant patterns have been in line with expectations. Winter 2023>2024 hasn't 'failed' or been a 'bust' There hasn't been any occasion of being led up a 'garden path' The teleconnections as a whole haven't 'failed' or been 'misleading' Latest data on the El Ninò temperatures are in at +2.2C which takes the 2023-2024 event into Super Ninò status. (Credit JMA) December 2023 monthly heights January 2024 heights Typical heights during a strong El Ninò The warm and cold episodes have correlated excellently in line with the Arctic Oscillation Leading on from this post 'We'll continue seeing patterns which link to El Ninò throughout March and I'd favour potentially the first few weeks or so of April, following that time it's a gradual move into ENSO Neutral with some themes continuing of heading into La Ninà by late spring and particularly Summer 2024.' Doing a VERY extended outlook. We see the transition from El Ninò >> La Ninà again everything pretty much as expected of course I'm showing an 8 - 11 MONTH period here so will it resemble this 100% probably not to a T but overall good representation. Note the precip changes which are particularly noticeable in Australia and the Southern United States This shown very well globally on CANSIPS This switch also displayed by looking at the 200hpa U-winds And with the 500hpa heights And of course one of the most important the Sea Surface temperatures Whilst the MEI is one part of the ENSO spectrum we see that this Ninò has been running effectively parallel to 2009-2010 [also 1991-92 to some extent] which adds credence to that being my #1 analogue through this winter and the hurricane analogues continue showing this. Returning to February we've got a couple of significant 500hpa evolutions to watch as the same cyclonic system which became the significant winter storm across multiple US states, this looks to be the main influence across the UK & Ireland by the 22nd & 23rd. Goes with expectations with a strengthening positive NAO. Following on from this I'm seeing a trend for a possible transition into yet another of the precursor setups for further stratospheric warming. Current timing looks to be the very last days of February into March week 1. Thanks for reading. KW

Impressive wave break event this, whilst it may not look much on pressure charts its gonna be fueled by an impressive plume by February standards which will bring temperatures of between 15C > 17C into Southeast England on the 15th. Another Wave Break event by the 17th - 18th which sends the low into Italy.

"With a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation there will be cold outbreaks within the Northern Hemisphere and given these are stronger values than both previous events I wouldnt be surprised if the conditions are also a bit colder overall." Here comes one of those cold outbreaks as a high from Canada moves southwards which can be seen with the MJO phase 7 data Impressive temperature anomalies associated with this even into Texas and Mexico, will we see record cold I certainly wouldn't rule out records being tied / broken in some areas. As the very active El Ninò setups continue we've also got a snowmaking system heading through the Great Lakes possibly giving a top up into the Northeast too, and another dual cyclonic setup with further flash flood risks in California, Pacific Northwest, Gulf States particularly Florida and into the Caribbean. Further significant snow for the Sierras also. The southwards moving Canadian high will transition toward the typical -PNA and influence from MJO phase 6, this currently looks to occur by February 20th with strength and duration of the high TBD. Across the other end of the Northern Hemisphere we see a 2nd Cold air outbreak which will descend across Asia bringing significant > extreme cold anomalies and significant > extreme snow.

2 flashes 2 rumbles and one was in the forth decently close really

Proper wintry radar on the go, thought I'd heard a Rumble there and a bit of hail mixed in. This cam about to be plastered Highland Safaris: Red Deer Centre Webcam Views WWW.HIGHLANDSAFARIS.NET The Red Deer Park Live Webcam in Highland Safaris, winner of the Best Visitor Experience in Scotland, combine exhilarating Land Rover Safaris.

Wanted to do a follow On from my post here as it carries importance why we are seeing the 500hpa evolutions upcoming. ''We might have a brief re entry of phase 6 during week 1 of February though there is no complete agreement for this, however it's relatively similar to the setups currently materialising should it occur." This is an occasion where the MJO Obs are of great value as there can be differences when solely focusing on the model predictions and I do tend to trust the OBS in these situations. We see that we did briefly go into phase 6 in February week 1 Very much in line with expectations with the typical El Ninò storm track which extends into the Atlantic this in turn will see further Rossby Wave Breaks which have potential to bring flash flooding as the wave break low forms and further significant snow in multiple countries. The positive NAO also playing into these setups nicely, these are typical temperatures with a positive NAO but give fairly good representation of the positions of low and high pressure This also shows the strong ridging and high pressure developments into the UK which connects into the negative PNA with further developments of high pressure to the East of USA and the Maritimes.

Fascinating event this, with the last influence of the snowstorm which has split into multiple cyclonic centres with one swinging back in for the Northwest and West of Scotland GFS and GEM give a good idea definitely potential here for significant accumulations it's mainly across higher routes but I'd say we can't rule out some mixing down to lower levels and Scandinavia and Iceland getting possibly serious amounts especially as these depths are occuring within 1-2 days As the next influence from an Atlantic cyclone transfers into a Rossby Wave Break by Mid February there could be a risk of flash flooding moving into Scotland as the wave break low pushes in, still a few differentials exactly where the wave break occurs which will influence where the low position occurs Note the 1st Rossby Wave Break has occured by this timeframe and the low sits between the Mediterranean and Aegean. 2nd Rossby Wave Break mid February sending another wave break cut off low into Italy and the Mediterranean. Its interesting as this is causing discrepancies with regards to how strong the associated high pressure develops into Scandinavia This brings more big falls of snow into the same areas in Scandinavia and the potential flash flooding within the UK. During week 3 of February still looking at a bit of drier weather as a ridge and connecting high pressure from Spain through the UK into Greenland and Alaska. The period from week 3 into week 4 of February has always been the next point of interest for possible wintry conditions it does seem this is more -AO driven initially then we look for the NAO switching more negative plus how fast and at what amplitude the MJO begins moving across the west Hemisphere and Africa at. With a retrograding blocking high pairing to an increasingly negative North Atlantic Oscillation and retrograding trough into Scandinavia winter definitely ain't over

Arizona doing excellent from this pattern As covered in my post here the same cyclone which brought incredible amounts across Nova Scotia also became a snowstorm across the UK and Ireland I also discussed the liklihood this same cyclone would give snow in Morocco

Yeah just a tad anomalous Numerous high wind gusts particularly in mountain regions These high rain and snow amounts haven't been all bad news though with a needed boost for reservoirs and some snowpacks running a few months ahead of usual Arizona getting very impressive amounts in this setup

Cambrian Thanks for this post @Cambrian I'd like to highlight a few points with the 1st being the tendency for Scandinavian trough developments, this is a common feature of El Ninò using these from some of my recent posts And focusing in on February tendencies with El Ninò You have no idea how much I appreciate your optimism as my interest in this thread overall was dwindling somewhat with endless pages of moany vibes which should really be for the moans thread but hey ho, I get the despondency of those yet to see snow however there HAVE been events fitting of winter during both winter months thus far. We continue to see excellent representation of exactly what you'd expect given recent, current and probable upcoming MJO progression Taking the CFS weeklies as a great example the surface temperatures are again corresponding with what is common with El Ninò overall & El Ninò in February Accompanying precipitation anoms are also where you'd expect to be in Feb With a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation there will be cold outbreaks within the Northern Hemisphere and given these are stronger values than both previous events I wouldnt be surprised if the conditions are also a bit colder overall. Factor in the +PNA its what I'd expect

Ballater is the place to be this time possibility of anywhere upto a foot to come still Webcams - Craigendarroch Owners' Club WWW.CRAIGENDARROCH.COM River Dee at Ballater Ballater Golf Club Deeside Gliding Club Cairngorms National Park Cameras Snow Gate Cameras Braemar Snow Gate Glenshee Ski Centre Lecht Ski Centre | Nest VIDEO.NEST.COM Streaming live #caughtonNestCam

Gonna be a fascinating watch this, on the southern end we've got another significant flash flood risk spanning multiple days and states (plus further potential tornadic events) even into the Carolinas with many possible outcomes with regards to snow along the Northwest and northern flanks with the GFS going all in on a major event into Northeast states

Cheers for getting this years thread running with excellent contributions @WeatherArc I've been covering the setups going into classic El Ninò 500hpa evolutions and this has managed to give a few tornadoes out in California Some ratings on other recent tors and hail statistics Tonight's events

Lovely patterns in line with the teleconnections continuing to materialise with a great setup for some significant snowy cyclonic developments from February 11th through at least 1 week thereafter as low pressure from southwestern America / Mexico moves Northeastwards with a track as mentioned previously through Northern and Northeast America and particularly Newfoundland and Nova Scotia Heading through week 3 of February remains the next significant setup for potential wintry conditions with a building high in Greenland and retrograding Scandinavian trough as energy connections begin with the trough in the Atlantic

Views on Lanark cams showing what I was generally expecting with snow falling but ground temperatures being a bit unsupportive for laying snow. Though snowstorms can have fairly large differences in snow depths across short distances which I'd not be shocked seeing repeated. /images/logo-subtitle.jpg Discover Lanark WWW.LANARK.CO.UK Explore our new website and discover all that Lanark, New Lanark and the Falls of Clyde have to offer for visitors and locals.

With the flow starting to switch into the East this gets some north sea convection going as can be seen on the radar between Stonehaven and Aberdeen, a cracking view of this here currently.. North Webcam - Seacroft Marine Consultants WWW.SEACROFTMARINE.COM

Quite an intriguing storm system this and I did always say the orientation would be a big player as it usually is when looking at snowstorms, generally the more elongated cyclones are better with cylindrical being less so and looks as if we'll get a combo this time. The ground temperatures also tell a great story We see during the approach of the storm ground temperatures are roughly 0 to 1C. With the #1 ingredient the Dewpoint these start the day below freezing for many of us and itl be a gradual movement to less favourable These give an idea that many of us could have snow falling but having a tricky time laying, then more of a wintry mix. Another factor is the wind, hence why IMO it still deserves to be reffered to as a snowstorm with a large swathe of the precip being snow and gusts being such as .. Significant waves being drawn into the East Coast too Check the windchill values some parts with at least 3 consecutive days of sub zero windchill and as the storm moves north some places nearing minus double digits Normally one of the key parameters I watch for snowfall is the 528 dam but interesting in this storm it actually isn't present during most of the snow. The actual isotherm tells a story fitting what I've discussed as the snow height gradually increases. With snowstorms even tweaks in parameters which may seem small often have large affects, I say pretty much all of us are probable to see snow falling just a question how much can lay given the ground temperatures and winds though again all of us cannot discount a dusting at the least. Heading through the remainder of Feb week 2 and into week 3 it's looking lovely with the building of high pressure likely some good sunshine on offer as covered in my post yesterday the wet conditions become focused into Italy and the Ionian, Adriatic and Mediterranean regions as our current storms energy transfers into a cut off low. Though this is not the main period of interest with regard to further wintry conditions its not without interest, though the 850hpa temperatures are probable of being above average The flow will be switching toward more of an easterly which could give below average surface temps during this timeframe With continuing retrograding into week 3 of February the blocking heads northwest to Greenland and the Atlantic and Scandinavian trough become our focus. Moisture plume w Jet Interaction from the Caribbean has begun

Very detailed outlook discussing the dynamics from this point and extending for the majority of February 🌨🌨🌨️️🌩

Super amount of work went into this one 🌨🌨

Longer post showing the dynamics at play leading into week 2 of February [and beyond] Starting with developments for the rest of February week 1 into the start of week 2 as mentioned in my post here "I do expect we'll have the PNA getting more into a negative setup during week 1 of Feb into the first part of week 2 with feedback of MJO phase 6" 'With the influence of more of a -PNA paired to MJO phase 6 I'd not be shocked seeing potential for a storm as the associated troughing crosses the UK between February 8th > 12th'' To understand the dynamics at play for the next major event for the UK / Ireland we need to look at events which have taken place over in Newfoundland and in particular Nova Scotia This is the same cyclone which will come into the UK and Ireland through the February 8th - 12th period. The influencing section of the Jet Stream for this system can be tracked from the Caribbean Island Chain into Portugal and the UK On the Northern and Northwest flanks of the snowstorm we'll have the potential for significant amounts of snow, I wouldn't be one bit shocked seeing areas within the region of a foot of snow perhaps a bit more with current signals of these totals into the Pennines perhaps parts of Scotland, Ireland also a possible area of Northern Wales. "Also increased threat of flash flooding into Portugal and extending across southern Europe in association with an increasingly strengthening Jet Stream in this region also within that timeframe." As southern parts of the UK remain in a milder sector of the storm and connected to the section of the Jet Stream mentioned above the flash flood risk could extend into England perhaps Wales with a chance of thunderstorms. This flash flood threat looks to also move into Morocco places such as Casablanca and Rabat with some snow as it moves further inland. During this timeframe we also see the Maritimes High extending into the US East Coast feedback from the trend to more of a negative PNA and MJO phases 5 and particularly 6 As the UK storm and associated troughing gradually moves East it will see quite a rapid weakening as an increasingly strengthening area of high pressure begins to develop further to it's east. This will force the trough energy southwards and this becomes a cut off low into Italy and the Adriatic, Inonian and Mediterranean also regions a bit east of here. This leads into my discussions from my post here "Looking to the 2nd and latter half of February with the MJO currently being in a phase 7 for the last days of January This gives the following feedback From my post on Thursday which is linked above ''With continuing phase 6 starting to transition into phase 7 and pairing to a re emerging and strengthening +PNA as we get toward and past Mid February there will be lots of tantalising charts'' During this timeframe we'll also see a VERY impressive negative Arctic Oscillation with values perhaps exceeding those which preceeded the severe cold outbreaks of December 2023 and January 2024. During February week 2 the 500hpa setups will begin to retrograde taking us into the MJO phase 7 patterns with a retrograding trough moving Southwest through Scandinavia and potential for further snowstorms toward Nova Scotia - Newfoundland and from Canada > Maritimes through Northern and Northeast America, also developments in line with the +PNA of cyclonic systems from the Gulf remain a possibility. Full sequence Also during week 3 of February the ongoing stratospheric warming looks set to keep intensifying with possibilities for a 2nd reversal of zonal winds this winter I first discussed the liklihood of stratospheric warming in my post here

As the Gulf Cyclone moved east northeast it produced a plethora of tornadic supercells with a significant tor in Valdosta Georgia

Quite a significant flash flood event for Northwest > West Scotland over the next day or so due to the boundary of cold and mild air which creates a bit of an Atmospheric river. Little update on the snowstorm / blizzard, still coming in for this timeframe and many outputs still looking tasty